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SIRIUS and XM Expected to Announce Merger Today?

In a NY Post article that was published today, SIRIUS and XM plan to announce the details of their Merger today. The Post has a picture of SIRIUS CEO Mel Karmazin with a caption “Done deal.” The two companies were in negotions during the weekend and through the time the Post article went to press and “the deal could fall apart at any time.”

It would be surprising that the two entities would announce a merger today, given that it is President’s day and the markets are closed. This is also the NY Post, a paper not known for its accurate reporting. Assuming a merger did happen, it would be much more likely to be announced when the market was open, simply because it could make the stock price jump immediately, allowing executives to pocket millions and shareholders to be happy. Announcing it now would give stockholders 24 hours to look it over and find any downsides, potentially making the stock not jump as much or be flat on the news tomorrow.

Another important point to make is that the Post has really stretched the annual savings number: “$7 billion annually”. It is amazing how they could save that much when the two companies expenses combined were barely half of that in 2006(estimate).

Please note: we are not advising people to buy or sell and our speculations are just that. The stocks could go up, down, left, right, front, back, pretty much whatever. We are just another person providing insight.

Posted by RyanM on Monday, February 19th, 2007 at 10:34 am.
Filed in Merger, Satellite Radio, XM, Sirius.
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Comments:

  1. It's been talked about on the Stern forum this morning (which is interesting because Stern isn't even new today but they do have a pretty good Billy West special). If it happens, I think it's nothing but bad!

    I think everyone is jumping to conclusions and it makes sense but keep in mind....the New York Post! They are useless! by VinnyM27
  2. This has been discussed actively in a couple of threads this morning. To sum up...

    1) It's the NY Post! No financial outlet, e.g. Wall Street Journal, is saying anything.

    2) They wouldn't announce this on a day when the stock market is closed. They would miss out on the immediate post-announcement bump

    3) FCC said just a month ago that this merger would not be allowed. I don't think they've changed their minds in a month by atlwxman
  3. I think SBS has had their heads ( I'll be nice ) in the sand on the entire Merger issue failing to promote frank discussions and reasonable intellectual thought.

    I assume SBS will be rolled into a proactive service like XMFAN or 411 which will do the satrad community a large favor. by PGET
  4. The New York Post business pages are respected on Wall Street. They do break business news regularly. They have broken plenty of business news - but since we're discussing satellite radio, they broke plenty of stories concerning Sirius and their affiliation with Howard Stern, most notably and recently Stern's huge bonus. Just for an XM news reference, they were ahead of the curve on XM contracting with Major League Baseball and Oprah Winfrey, reporting this news on their business pages before blogs and message boards.

    Don't mix the gossip pages and their flamboyant and tabloidy news coverage (that is biased, at times) with their business reporting record. by ajiovine
  5. I saw this issue reported on this morning on Good Morning America. You think that GMA would run with it if it wasn't partly true? Just wondering. by deanaflores
  6. Quote:
    Originally Posted by deanaflores View Post
    I saw this issue reported on this morning on Good Morning America. You think that GMA would run with it if it wasn't partly true? Just wondering.
    News sources run with stories that aren't true all the time. Look at the recent Obama-madrassa story. Odds are that unless GMA received confirmation from their own sources, they said "The NY Post is reporting today..." by BenDee
  7. Quote:
    Originally Posted by atlwxman View Post
    3) FCC said just a month ago that this merger would not be allowed. I don't think they've changed their minds in a month
    Even Kevin Martin (FCC Chairman) has said the current rules can be changed.
    Quote:
    U.S. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin said on Thursday a rule that bars XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. from merging could be altered, if requested.
    So, nothing's "impossible"...though to treat the NY Post as the Bible is foolish: they FREQUENTLY publish rumors. by syphix924
  8. Without commenting on the validity of this rumor, merger negotiations quite often occur over the weekend, are concluded on Sundays, and announced then, or the following Monday morning -early. That's why you here the phrase "Merger Monday". This weekend they have an extra day. by rudder
  9. Seems like the SEC would really frown upon the NY Post publishing unfounded rumors like this, considering the potential of what it could do to the stocks of each company.

    But, I've been saying for years that there will either be a merger between the two companies or they'll start playing commercials on music channels.
    Both of these guys are bleeding money with no end in sight. Something's gotta give. by Seismo
  10. Remember all those rumors? by tgajr
  11. Quote:
    Originally Posted by Seismo View Post
    Seems like the SEC would really frown upon the NY Post publishing unfounded rumors like this, considering the potential of what it could do to the stocks of each company.

    But, I've been saying for years that there will either be a merger between the two companies or they'll start playing commercials on music channels.
    Both of these guys are bleeding money with no end in sight. Something's gotta give.
    NY Post can print what they want, as long as someone at the newspaper isn't trying to actively manipulate the stock price to enrich themselves. First amendment... by atlwxman
  12. What I don't understand is the arguement that "the NYPost is a rag" so there can't be a merger. There were an awful lot of details in that story...they were leaked by someone. My point is the NYP may indeed be a bad paper(have no idea) however any reasonable person can conclude that something is clearly brewing here and wether or not the NYP is a rag has nothing to do with the approching reality that a merger is more than likely at this point. by siriusurfer
  13. I think the issue is not just NY Post and its reputation, but the fact that no other outlet is reporting this. You don't think that the Wall Street Journal, Broadcasting and Cable, or Radio and Records have sources at one or both of the satellite companies? by atlwxman
  14. This, if true, is BS. Merger means no competition, and the coming of high prices for both XM and Sirius subscribers. Tell the FCC NO WAY! Tell the feds NO WAY as it would mean NO COMPETITION! And we all know from experience, no competition means no quality, high prices and poor service. by jduffy
  15. I have mixed feelings about a merger.I wasn't happy with Sirius' music programming,too hit oriented for my taste and I feel that that lack of diverse programming will spill over into XM.
    Sirius Rock Channels-23
    Sirius R&B channels-2
    I would have to leave Satellite Radio altogether if XM were to display the lack of attention towards my demographic group like Sirius does. by v1ru5
  16. Quote:
    Originally Posted by atlwxman View Post
    I think the issue is not just NY Post and its reputation, but the fact that no other outlet is reporting this. You don't think that the Wall Street Journal, Broadcasting and Cable, or Radio and Records have sources at one or both of the satellite companies?
    Here's one www.247wallstreet.com by siriusurfer
  17. "3) FCC said just a month ago that this merger would not be allowed. I don't think they've changed their minds in a month"

    Enough with this nonsense! Getting around this is the easy part of the entire deal IMO.

    2 companies that are both failing cannot be considered competition. This shows that their competition is the MUSIC INDUSTRY not each other.

    going through the motions to get this point across to the FCC is just that. by rustytrombone
  18. Quote:
    Originally Posted by siriusurfer View Post
    That's not an independent report. They're just reporting what NY Post said.

    Like I said, no WSJ or any other legitimate financial paper is reporting this. by atlwxman
  19. I think this paragraph is key.

    "Talks were still going on at press time and the deal could fall apart at any time. With antitrust issues of paramount importance, this source said lawyers for both companies were working overtime to fine-tune the language of the agreement and frame the discussion around the deal itself and not regulatory concerns".

    Even if the FCC changes their mind, they still have to get by the Federal Trade Commission.

    http://www.ftc.gov/ftc/antitrust.htm by jwt873
  20. Quote:
    Talks were still going on at press time and the deal could fall apart at any time.
    This is the part of the article that leads me to believe that it's another bullshit article by The Post. This sentence was inserted to remove any accountablity from The Post's "source". by jcrean


  21. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2887000

    The article is basically a parrot of the nyp article. Notice the breaking news however.

    edit: no other source has anything on this at all however, so I still feel its false. by Ryokurin
  22. Well, it's 1:30 pm eastern, and there has been no announcement, and no other outlet has independently reported this story. by atlwxman
  23. Quote:
    Originally Posted by atlwxman View Post
    That's not an independent report. They're just reporting what NY Post said.

    Like I said, no WSJ or any other legitimate financial paper is reporting this.
    My bad...here's a direct link to the story I wanted http://www.247wallst.com/2007/02/could_xm_sirius.html by siriusurfer
  24. Quote:
    Originally Posted by jduffy View Post
    This, if true, is BS. Merger means no competition, and the coming of high prices for both XM and Sirius subscribers. Tell the FCC NO WAY! Tell the feds NO WAY as it would mean NO COMPETITION! And we all know from experience, no competition means no quality, high prices and poor service.
    Makes you want to join the ranks of the lifetime subscribers. Plus, I like not having any bills. by obk
  25. Bad use of the word "confirmed" by ABC News, since they are simply running a Reuters story, which is a story on NY Post's story. No true independent confirmation outside the NY Post.

    EDIT: aaaand....now ABC News is saying they're "confirming" it...wow....getting interesting. by syphix924
  26. Quote:
    Originally Posted by siriusurfer View Post
    My bad...here's a direct link to the story I wanted http://www.247wallst.com/2007/02/could_xm_sirius.html
    Once again, that is not an independent confirmation of the story. It's only an analysis of what might happen in a merger.

    So far, it's the NY Post and abc news saying they have confirmed the rumor. by atlwxman
  27. It's happening....holy sh*t.
    http://xmradio.mediaroom.com/index.p...ases&item=1423 by syphix924
  28. Quote:
    Originally Posted by atlwxman View Post
    Once again, that is not an independent confirmation of the story. It's only an analysis of what might happen in a merger.

    So far, it's the NY Post and abc news saying they have confirmed the rumor.
    C'mon dude...now I just feel bad for ya.. by siriusurfer
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