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Old 01-05-2007, 08:34 AM   #1
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Default Sirius Signed Up 2 Out Of Every 3 Net Subscribers In Fourth Quarter

It appears XM released their 4th quarter subscriber numbers today, and it is not very pretty. The plus side is that XM has achieved positive cash flow. The down and dirty is that they only added 440,000 net new subscribers in Q4, and for a grand total of 7.625 million subscribers, missing guidance by 75k subs, which misses by 8k more than last year's guidance miss. This puts Sirius only 1.6 million subscribers behind XM, which is pretty amazing considering that they peaked at about 3 million behind XM in October, 2005. Sirius nabbed 67.19% of new net subscribers, which is a new record for them. In terms of total subscribers now, Sirius has 44% of the market, with 6.02 million compared to XM's 7.625 million.
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Old 01-05-2007, 08:37 AM   #2
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The question is, at what cost? If Sirius is spending $150/new subscriber and XM is spending $50, then Sirius is winning a pyrrhic victory.

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Old 01-05-2007, 09:53 AM   #3
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Wow. That is certainly good news for Sirius. Looks like the Howard effect and the Nascar effect and the NFL effect are not over.

But, is this good for the industry in general? I don't really know. Positive Cash Flow is certianly a great thing for both companies but I would like to see growth faster larger for both companies.

But sirius sellign 2 out of 3 is certainly a good thing.
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Old 01-05-2007, 09:57 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Vargas
Wow. That is certainly good news for Sirius. Looks like the Howard effect and the Nascar effect and the NFL effect are not over.

But, is this good for the industry in general? I don't really know. Positive Cash Flow is certianly a great thing for both companies but I would like to see growth faster larger for both companies.

But sirius sellign 2 out of 3 is certainly a good thing.
I'd be with you except for the fact that I was watching all the deals... hell, Sirius was practically giving away receivers to anyone that signed up. I'm just hoping they know what they're doing... XM did that last year to counter the Stern-effect and they got absolutely hammered by churn rates this year. Xm literally loses 1 out of every 2 people that sign up.
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Old 01-05-2007, 09:58 AM   #5
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Good news to hear...

I know of 3 other people (one with dual subs) who decided to dump XM and switch over to Sirius because of Sirius now carrying NASCAR. Small number but it does add up.
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Old 01-05-2007, 10:50 AM   #6
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I know of 3 other people (one with dual subs) who decided to dump XM and switch over to Sirius because of Sirius now carrying NASCAR. Small number but it does add up.
I think that NASCAR crowd will start to appear next month and through the spring. I'm not much of a NASCAR fan, but I do know that crowd has a very strong following. I know the Daytona 500 is next month ( Feb 18th) . I would expect to see a lot of new subs for all those people beginning then.
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Old 01-05-2007, 10:54 AM   #7
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I think that NASCAR crowd will start to appear next month and through the spring. I'm not much of a NASCAR fan, but I do know that crowd has a very strong following. I know the Daytona 500 is next month ( Feb 18th) . I would expect to see a lot of new subs for all those people beginning then.
The move to put mics in the cars was brilliant. Satellite radio has to be about offering something that you can't get for free. With this, NASCAR on Sirius is now something that enhances the experience, not just another way to get it.
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:01 AM   #8
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I just think that overall Sirius puts out a better product, I as well as others have made the switch and the numbers will continue to go upward
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:03 AM   #9
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If they could ever get ACC basketball to come over there would be alot more subs also
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:24 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
I'd be with you except for the fact that I was watching all the deals... hell, Sirius was practically giving away receivers to anyone that signed up. I'm just hoping they know what they're doing... XM did that last year to counter the Stern-effect and they got absolutely hammered by churn rates this year. Xm literally loses 1 out of every 2 people that sign up.
So was XM. I'd expect their SAC/CPSA?whatever they call that measurement to go up (although I'm sure it will remain less that Sirius'). As an example, I got a Nexus for $60 with a $50 rebate and a $55 service card. I was paid $35 to add XM for 6 months, if I don't renew, it was a loser for them.
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:33 AM   #11
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Both companies in last year end quarter campaigns throw out the books in order to get people to sign up and keep them. XM making positive cash flow is great news and good for the industry. Guess how long it took DirecTV and DISH Network to do what has taken XM and Sirius to do in a 5 years? Its progress, and subscribers for both are going up and costs down. It is of some concern that XM missed their guidance by 75,000 tho.
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:50 AM   #12
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I'm technically counted as a dual subscriber but my XM service is ending in January. I think a lot of NASCAR fans will be in the same boat dropping XM and moving to Sirius in the next 6 weeks. I didn't want to be without service in case I had issues with Sirius (which turned out not to be an issue). NASCAR is a huge deal since you can't get coverage on the radio in the New England / New York area. Also you only get 12 to 16 weeks of good weather up here so you can't spend all of your weekends watching television. If you are a NASCAR fan you need NASCAR on the radio. Thanks Sirius!
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Old 01-05-2007, 11:52 AM   #13
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sirius will continue to add more subs for the next couple of quarters but as new OEM start to hit, i would think the sub spread would narrow or even reverse---I do think sirius has a shot of catching up in sub count to XM by mid 2008 if trends continue
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Old 01-05-2007, 12:02 PM   #14
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sirius will continue to add more subs for the next couple of quarters but as new OEM start to hit, i would think the sub spread would narrow or even reverse---I do think sirius has a shot of catching up in sub count to XM by mid 2008 if trends continue
Will be interesting to see what devices come out next. Sirius seems very interested in both WiFi and video. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move in that direction on the retail side. Will be a tough sell though- once you start stepping on the toes of Apple and Microsoft, you're dealing with giants.
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Old 01-05-2007, 01:16 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
Will be interesting to see what devices come out next. Sirius seems very interested in both WiFi and video. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move in that direction on the retail side. Will be a tough sell though- once you start stepping on the toes of Apple and Microsoft, you're dealing with giants.
I would like to see Sirius come out with radios that would alert me with local Weather watches or warnings or even carry the amber alert. (with a text crawl thing showing the important info.)

In the Menu options would be the place to set your Zip code so the digital stream from the satellite would know what radio to send the specific alert that you enabled.
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