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Old 09-11-2003, 08:44 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siriusatn67
DAB: XM does count promotional subs in their count. As of 6/30, about 115,000 subs were on a promotional basis, and they will not divulge what their churn is on GM cars, nor do they include it in their regular churn rate. That I think is bull, considering that over 15% of their subs are on a promotional agreement right now.
Well I am not so sure about it, so I can't argue the point, because to me its pointless and I really don't care. The fact is SIRIUS is no prize when it comes to providing much information themselves. They provide just what they are required to and not one iota more. Sometimes its almost to the point that they appear to be hiding behind a facade. We all know that Clayton is a champ at doing that. XM, appears to be much more forthcoming with the information. Those promotional subs are a great opportunity to garner new subs, which is a much better avenue than SIRIUS has at this point when you consider GM vs FORD.
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Old 09-11-2003, 11:42 AM   #17
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Even Merril Lynch in a research report doesn't like the way XM reports subs. They think they shouldn't count the promotional subs or should count them seperately. See XM counts the promotionals as a sub, but when it expires and the person doesn't buy a subscription, they don't count it as churn. They are having it both ways. They were much more comfortable with Sirius's counts and churn calculations. To investors the counts and churn matter alot.

So XM is no more forthcoming than Sirius, and the numbers they do come out with are less meaningful.
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Old 09-11-2003, 12:07 PM   #18
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Dabster, I understand your point of view. XM's sub numbers can seem daunting when compared to Sirius. The emporer may have no clothes when you consider their way of counting subs. Of course they have many more than Sirius, but like Siriusatn said, many of them are simply promotional and don't count in the churn. It's a pyrimid method of counting, if you get enough new promotional subs to replace those that churn out, it all looks good. Since GM is ramping production of XM installs, it's easy to keep increasing the promo count bigger each month. Do I wish Sirius had the same number of factory installs? Absolutely.

I look at growth as a percentage basis and in that regard, Sirius is doing just fine. I believe Sirius is probably close to 160,000 subs right now, and I project 175,000 by the end of this month. That would be double their last quarter sub additions which is very significant. The reason a company can't grow by huge numbers overnight, is most purchases are driven by word of mouth, and Sirius has fewer mouths. It's possible that the 4th quarter could bring 150,000 subs which would get them to their target.

Time will tell.
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Old 09-12-2003, 12:11 AM   #19
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I think much is made to do over the way either of these companies count subs and the fact is, the average joe blow out there thinking about getting XM or SIRIUS could care less how they count the subs. That is pretty much the way I feel too.

Today, I had some time to kill and I was reviewing disclosures from both companies and how you can say that SIRIUS and XM are on the same level in regards to being forthcoming is almost laughable. Sorry! XM may skew their numbers, but it appears SIRIUS does too. In fact their are many that don't think we have EVER been provided an accurate accounting by SIRIUS. But that maybe the case for both. Who is right and who is wrong. I surely don't know and I don't thing it matters at this point. The bottom line is that its about marketing, name recognition and shelf space with the retailers behind your product. XM has kicked SIRIUS's butt in all those areas. SIRIUS is finally getting some interest, so perhaps they too will grow in name recognition. We know the shelf space has grown, now if we can get the folks interested in the offering, then perhaps this thing will take off for SIRIUS. We'll know we've reached that place when we can go into any retailer and ask about Sat Radio and they say, which one are you interested in XM or SIRIUS, instead of on you want XM.

There is little doubt SIRIUS is going to make their numbers. If they don't after giving away the store, then they've got bigger problems then either you or I could ever resolve in a conversation on this forum. I also feel that XM will meet and probably even go beyond their projections as I've stated a few times now.

We shall see. Enjoyed the convo though... Thanks
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Old 09-12-2003, 05:53 AM   #20
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And we've enjoyed reading it, too. At least I know I have. Still, I gotta say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by DABSter in part
There is little doubt SIRIUS is going to make their numbers. If they don't after giving away the store, then they've got bigger problems then either you or I could ever resolve in a conversation on this forum.
There is no doubt that both companies have bigger problems than you two could resolve in a conversation on this forum!

If not, Joe Clayton is greatly overpaid. Oh, never mind.

I bet there are several posters here who are dead pipe certain they could resolve ALL of Sirius's problems if they ran the place. And I bet they are wrong. It ain't as easy as it looks. If it were, any fool could do it.

Then again, perhaps a fool wouldn't know what was conventional wisdom that it wouldn't work and would stumble on a brilliant business strategy. Unlikely, but you never know!
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Old 09-12-2003, 08:26 AM   #21
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I'm sorry to have to say this,but since I'm not a fan of Joe Clayton your statement "any fool could do it' might be pretty close to what Sirius has in charge now,a fool.
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Old 09-12-2003, 09:03 AM   #22
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I don't know if the man is a fool or not. But his laid back management style has done more harm to SIRIUS than any fool could have for sure.

Its like these people don't learn from their mistakes, they just keep making more. NOT even a fool would do that, even they learn from their mistakes.

Joe is about one thing, what he can get out of SIRIUS for himself. Just like this foolish idea on video. People already complain about the sound of the Talk streams. They should be working to fix this rather than dabling into video streaming, that may end up hurting the sound quality of SIRIUS overall. Fool is a good description and for RoscoRyan that is JM2C. LOL
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Old 09-12-2003, 06:25 PM   #23
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"Joe is about one thing, what he can get out of SIRIUS for himself"


Well,his past with Global Crossings sure makes that statement by you right on the nose. He made millions while many Global employees lost everything.
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Old 09-13-2003, 04:29 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manco_lives
Even Merril Lynch in a research report doesn't like the way XM reports subs. They think they shouldn't count the promotional subs or should count them seperately. See XM counts the promotionals as a sub, but when it expires and the person doesn't buy a subscription, they don't count it as churn. They are having it both ways. They were much more comfortable with Sirius's counts and churn calculations. To investors the counts and churn matter alot.

So XM is no more forthcoming than Sirius, and the numbers they do come out with are less meaningful.
ML has upped their estimated % of retained subs from the GM cars. After the free ride period expires, ML estimates that 80% are renewed. Personally, I don't believe that figure. At least 25% of the Chevrolets are repossessed. (hehheh..) I like what Clayton is doing now, giving the hardware away and making the freebies pay in subscription, less likely to churn.

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