Digital Radio Central - Sponsored by TSS Radio
  DRC Home Page DRC Forums Contact Us  
 
SIRIUS Backstage Forum
 
 
 
  Sirius Satellite Radio XM Satellite Radio iTunes/iPod Slacker Pandora  
 
 
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >
Visit Digital Radio Central

Notices

The Street Converse with other investors about finance, economic and investment strategies. This is also the place to discuss SIRIUS XM company news and your favorite stocks.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
 
Old 09-06-2003, 07:40 PM   #1
surfside_duck
Just Tuned In
 
Join Date: Sep 06, 2003
Posts: 1
surfside_duck is on a distinguished road
Default subscriptions

Would it be possible for Sirius to have a running total of subscriptions on the website for all to see? I feel this would certainly build the confidence of shareholders like myself and quiet the "bashers". I also feel it would be a good way for Sirius to build "good faith credibility".
surfside_duck is offline  
 
 
Old 09-06-2003, 11:59 PM   #2
BenDee
Sirius Star
 
BenDee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 19, 2003
Location: West Bumblef*ck, NY
Posts: 6,749
BenDee will become famous soon enough
Default

I don't think that it would be good to have a running total unless it is done on a monthly basis. Having it done real-time, or even daily will help let XM know what promotions are working and what aren't, and that is close to a trade secret.
BenDee is offline  
 
 
Old 09-07-2003, 12:47 AM   #3
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
subscriptions
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

It won't even happen monthly... SIRIUS for some odd reason, loves to keep this information a big secret except by the quarter. Since they do it well into the next quarter, that total is already changed, but they don't provide a current and at the end of the quarter. Crap, just tell us, XM doesn't seem to give a crap about that, but they they've got great subscriber numbers too, so that maybe why. If you don't have much to brag about, I guess you just keep your mouth shut. Well sometimes.. ROTFLOL I honestly think we are going to start seeing some good numbers fairly soon!
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 09-07-2003, 01:50 AM   #4
Manco
Top Dog Member
subscriptions
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

As much as I would like to see daily sub numbers, it really isn't in the best interest of the company or the shareholders. Just like daily cash flow or accounts receivable would be interesting, but not good overall. And whoever said this could be used by XM to see what promotions work and don't is exactly right.

Dabster is also right that if you don't have anything to brag about you keep your mouth shut. No matter what they say the sub numbers are, it just sounds bad when you compare it to XM's. I think the general rule is if they are on track but not ahead of schedule, no new numbers will be released. If they are beating the numbers significantly then I think they would do an early release, especially at big round numbers like 200k.

When XM announces 1 Million, I would hope that Sirius would release their numbers shortly thereafter so that we can see how the gap is closing. By that time hopefully Sirius will have 300k.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 09-07-2003, 11:50 PM   #5
thexmdabster
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Jun 09, 2003
Posts: 113
thexmdabster is on a distinguished road
Default

Dude,
there is no way sirius will have 300k by sometime later this month early next month. XM should be at 1 million sometime around october 1st. No way that sirius goes from 100 something to 300k something in one quarter. i do think they will make their year end #'s however.
thexmdabster is offline  
 
 
Old 09-08-2003, 12:47 AM   #6
Manco
Top Dog Member
subscriptions
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thexmdabster
there is no way sirius will have 300k by sometime later this month early next month. XM should be at 1 million sometime around october 1st. No way that sirius goes from 100 something to 300k something in one quarter. i do think they will make their year end #'s however.
So you think the march to 1 million will only last for less than 1 month? I think their projections are to have 1M - 1.2M by the end of the year so why would you think they would hit that target 3 months early?
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 09-08-2003, 12:58 AM   #7
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
subscriptions
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by manco_lives
So you think the march to 1 million will only last for less than 1 month? I think their projections are to have 1M - 1.2M by the end of the year so why would you think they would hit that target 3 months early?
Because they are doing many, many things to see too it that it does and giving away equipment is NOT one of them. They are actually interacting with their subscribers.. get them invovled in promoting, along with coming out with some darn neat equipment. I think they are going to make well above what they estimated their year end target numbers to be. XM is on fire man, you can just feel it.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 09-08-2003, 01:04 AM   #8
Manco
Top Dog Member
subscriptions
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DABSter
Quote:
Originally Posted by manco_lives
So you think the march to 1 million will only last for less than 1 month? I think their projections are to have 1M - 1.2M by the end of the year so why would you think they would hit that target 3 months early?
Because they are doing many, many things to see too it that it does and giving away equipment is NOT one of them. They are actually interacting with their subscribers.. get them invovled in promoting, along with coming out with some darn neat equipment. I think they are going to make well above what they estimated their year end target numbers to be. XM is on fire man, you can just feel it.
I guess I'll believe it when I see it. I think the XM promotion is a good thing, but I seriously doubt they are growing as fast as they were before Sirius kicked into gear in the retail channel with PNP's. They might be growing faster in the OEM, but I doubt they are at retail. I don't think they will beat 1.2Million end of year, and they might even come in less. That's my guess.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 09-08-2003, 01:40 AM   #9
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
subscriptions
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by manco_lives
I guess I'll believe it when I see it. I don't think they will beat 1.2Million end of year, and they might even come in less. That's my guess.
Standby, cause you will see it and you can say you heard it here first. I think you greatly underestimate what is going on with XM right now. Their referral program alone is going to generate so many subscribers its not even funny. SIRIUS doesn't even have a referral program.

Lets just hope this new equipment SIRIUS has and is coming out with does for them what they need it too. My first love is SIRIUS in regards to these services, but I am also someone that looks at reality. Right now momentum is on XM's side. SIRIUS can change this, but do they have the ability to do it with this current team? I don't know, I can only say.. I HOPE!! I truly HOPE!!!

This can also works on SIRIUS side too as I have gotten many family members and friends hooked up with SIRIUS. They were often pushed to get XM when they went to BB and CC, but because they had their mind made up, it didn't matter what the rep at CC or BB said, they were getting SIRIUS and so they did.

Also, you take someone that has XM and tells their friends and family about it. When their friends and family go to get Sat Radio, they already have their mind made up. They want XM and that is what they will get. It don't matter if SIRIUS has 14 new P&P units on the shelf. Perfect example of this; I have two co-workers that I approached about getting SIRIUS. Both of them had talked to family members that have XM. Both of them told me that SIRIUS looked nice and even sounds great. But because their family or friend has XM, that is what they were getting. Word of mouth works man and when you get something for doing it, you are more apt to really push your family member about all the good things.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 09-08-2003, 10:23 AM   #10
thexmdabster
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Jun 09, 2003
Posts: 113
thexmdabster is on a distinguished road
Default

Manco,
it's not a question of if, but by how much xm beats their 1.2 million year end target. At this point, i'll be suprised if they don't finish with 1.4 million by year end. Just my opinion. The question with greater uncertainty is what sirius year end #'s will be. I'm thinkin around 300k at least, with maybe a shot at 330k. The big difference will be factory installs of which there are about 100k a month beginning to hit the car lots for xm. We don't know yet whether the 75% activation rate will hold true as they ramp up production, but we'll know within a quarter or so.
thexmdabster is offline  
 
 
Old 09-10-2003, 10:15 PM   #11
Joshua Clinard
Sirius Star
 
Join Date: Apr 15, 2003
Location: Abilene, Texas
Posts: 1,513
Joshua Clinard is on a distinguished road
Send a message via AIM to Joshua Clinard
Default

I don't think XM is going to beat their numbers. I haven't seen XM in the news at all lately, but SIRIUS has been in the news a lot lately. There has been articles in the news, hot products on retailer sites, such as MSN, Crutchfeild, also the F & F deal that is being promoted at a lot of different places, such as the Home Theater Forum, which has 30,000 members. Also, word of mouth is building. I have yet to meet anyone who has XM, but I've met several who have SIRIUS.
Joshua Clinard is offline  
 
 
Old 09-10-2003, 10:26 PM   #12
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
subscriptions
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joshua Clinard
I don't think XM is going to beat their numbers. I haven't seen XM in the news at all lately, but SIRIUS has been in the news a lot lately. There has been articles in the news, hot products on retailer sites, such as MSN, Crutchfeild, also the F & F deal that is being promoted at a lot of different places, such as the Home Theater Forum, which has 30,000 members. Also, word of mouth is building. I have yet to meet anyone who has XM, but I've met several who have SIRIUS.
Well its good that SIRIUS is FINALLY getting some attention... All this attention is OLD hat for XM. They have much momentum via name recognition, retail shelf space, more hardware, cheaper hardware, this new referral program, just to name a little of what they've got going. SIRIUS is just now beginning to get to where XM has already come and gone. Just look at all the guaranteed installs that GM has for them with a free 90 day subcription. Even if just 10 percent continue on after the 90's that is a lot of subs. They are going to make their numbers little doubt about it, but I for one think they'll do even better. We keep hearing about all these auto deals that SIRIUS has, but very few factory installs, its all dealer installs. Dealer don't push this stuff unless they can make some money. FORD in my opinion has done nothing, but screw the pooch... Another thing.. XM isn't having to GIVE away their hardware just to reach 300,000 subs either.. never have.

Don't get me wrong... I think SIRIUS is doing it now and this is all good, but we can't sell XM short, they have done a solid job of building their market share. SIRIUS could learn a lot of they only would.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 09-11-2003, 01:38 AM   #13
Manco
Top Dog Member
subscriptions
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Dabster, I'm somewhat confused by a few of your statements.

Quote:
more hardware, cheaper hardware
I don't see the the advantage here for XM. Sirius has two PNP products of different form factors. XM has one. Sirius has Panasonic and Kenwood and AudioVox as in dash options for FREE. Not only is Sirius PNP products $30 cheaper than XM's, their in dash tuners are free. If you are refering to the Roady being cheaper than Sirius PNP's, that's true, but it doesnt' have the flexibility of a PNP as far as I can tell. Sirius doesn't have a boombox, but that will change in about 6-8 weeks.

Quote:
XM isn't having to GIVE away their hardware just to reach 300,000 subs either.. never have
On the never have statement, didn't you say that xm was giving away free SkyFi's and you even got one? Also they are giving away free radio's to Cadillac purchasers, including the SkyFi if the Cadillac doesn't have the XM option dealer installed?

Don't they also have to pay GM quite a bit to have it factory installed and isn't this similar to giving away hardware from a cost standpoint? They also throw in 3 months free service and count it as a Sub. Sirius's giving away hardware is an alternative business model and has proven itself successful in Satellite TV markets. I don't think they will have to do this forever, but It is probably less expensive than alternative ways of generating demand.

Quote:
Don't get me wrong... I think SIRIUS is doing it now and this is all good, but we can't sell XM short, they have done a solid job of building their market share. SIRIUS could learn a lot of they only would.
Yes I agree Sirius could learn from XM's lead. They definitely have better marketing ideas so far. Of course they have the burden of having commercials, so they have to make people want it bad enought that they are willing to tolerate paying and having commercials in the same package.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 09-11-2003, 02:53 AM   #14
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
subscriptions
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by manco_lives
I don't see the the advantage here for XM.
XM has almost 700,000 subs or probably does have that many, they are now being prompted and actually rewarded for going out and getting more people to sign up for XM. SIRIUS, uh lets see, are we at 150,000 yet? A lot less word of mouth going on and what REAL incentive do they have for doing so, other than just self satisfaction. Regardless of how many plug and plays or head units and boomboxes there are. When all those folks get to talking XM, they aren't going into retail locations with an open mind anymore. They have been told go get yourself XM and you know what because their family, their friends have XM, that is just what they are going to do. I have experienced this over and over and over with folks I have tired to hook up with SIRIUS. I wish everyone was as opened minded as myself when it comes to Sat Radio, but that isn't my experience at all.

Quote:
On the never have statement, didn't you say that xm was giving away free SkyFi's and you even got one? Also they are giving away free radio's to Cadillac purchasers, including the SkyFi if the Cadillac doesn't have the XM option dealer installed?
I got the Skifi for $99.00 with a free home kit and had to keep it for 6 months, so I think perhaps it was misinterpreted to be free. The point in that thread was that I had gotten a F&F deal. I don't think I stated I got it for free that I remember. Perhaps that was suggested and I didn't not clarify otherwise. I know XM did give some Skifi's away, but not many. Their F&F deal was as stated above. But now here comes the difference, XM's F&F was on their web site and it was promoted like crazy by XMFan and their growing subscriber base with little or no questions or confusion like has been the case with SIRIUS and this current F&F has been rather wishy washy to say the least, which is how SIRIUS does things.

Quote:
Don't they also have to pay GM quite a bit to have it factory installed and isn't this similar to giving away hardware from a cost standpoint?
I am sure they pay GM to do installs, just like SIRIUS will do, but will they give the radio to the customers for free? I dont' think so.

Quote:
They also throw in 3 months free service and count it as a Sub.
I don't think XM counts these in their sub numbers, I think they are listed as promotion subs, just like their subs with the rental cars. Again this is another difference, XM actually breaks this stuff down, whereas SIRIUS who freaking knows? Someone that keeps up with this better than me will have to clarify this. But I don't think they count those 3 month promotion subscriptions in their counts.

Quote:
Sirius's giving away hardware is an alternative business model and has proven itself successful in Satellite TV markets. I don't think they will have to do this forever, but It is probably less expensive than alternative ways of generating demand.
I agree its another way of doing it, there is little doubt about it. I am not sure what the long term affects of it is going to be. Maybe they are boxing themselves up where no one will get SIRIUS unless they can get the hardware for free. Lets just wait, cause you know SIRIUS, they will have another one of those give aways eventually. (You yourself was pretty solid on waiting it out, till you got this hardware for free. But personally, I think someone that made an investment in their equipment is a lot less likely to cancel their sub after the year is up.) I hope that isn't the case, but I've said it all along, I don't agree with giving away the hardware at absolutely no cost to the subscriber. I think they could have done a nice promotion, not giving away the hardware and gotten like results. But actually got behind the promotion. Put on their web site and stood behind it fully. The way they are going about it is so typical, wishy washy as always.

Quote:
Of course they have the burden of having commercials, so they have to make people want it bad enought that they are willing to tolerate paying and having commercials in the same package.
I agree they have commercials and that is a turn off to some degree, but is it a turn off when it cost less, you have cooler, smaller equipment, interactivity with subscribers in a big way. Lets face it two, four or even 6 minutes of commercials an hour is pretty minimum. I agree for my money its worth 10 cents a day not to have commercials. But I am telling you as sure as I am sitting here when folks compare it to what they get with FM/AM, XM's commercials are almost irrelevent. I prefer no commercials myself, but I have never been one to complain about the commercials on XM, other than to say they've got them and they can't get away from saying that. Though you hear many say they never hear them, which I don't buy.

SIRIUS has come a long, long way since I started out with them back in December of last year. They have a long, long way to go. JMO, but the advantage to XM is they actually know how to run this business and their business plan thus far has proven to be much more successful than SIRIUS. All I am saying is give credit where credit is due and don't under estimate the momentum that they have going, because you and many others are going to be quite surprised by the year end numbers. I hope all this makes sense, cause its late and I should have long ago been in the sack.

I LOVE the DOG there is little doubting that. But reality is reality, no matter how you slice it, or dice it but where XM is concerned it just keep coming up subs. I can't even explain it. I think SIRIUS is going to have some good numbers starting in the 4th quarter and into next year. But they can't just keep doing it by giving away the store, not with their balance sheet. What are they going to keep deluting their stock, that as an investor should concern the crap out of you.

By the way, I do feel strongly that SIRIUS is going to end up being successul in spite of itself. That is why I am in it for the long term.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 09-11-2003, 07:54 AM   #15
BenDee
Sirius Star
 
BenDee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 19, 2003
Location: West Bumblef*ck, NY
Posts: 6,749
BenDee will become famous soon enough
Default

DAB: XM does count promotional subs in their count. As of 6/30, about 115,000 subs were on a promotional basis, and they will not divulge what their churn is on GM cars, nor do they include it in their regular churn rate. That I think is bull, considering that over 15% of their subs are on a promotional agreement right now.
BenDee is offline  
 
 
 

Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >


Digitalradiocentral.com




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:32 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.39 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
All Content Copyright SIRIUS Backstage. All Rights Reserved. SIRIUS and registered trademarks are the property of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. The opinions posted on SIRIUS Backstage website and forums are those of the individual posters and/or this website and are not necessarily the opinions or positions of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc.