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Old 10-14-2003, 04:53 PM   #16
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I think it's safe to say that XM has more subs for the quarter than Sirius. However if you break them down between those that were dealer/factory installed Vs after market installed (retail channel), Sirius has a chance to have beaten XM.

If Sirius does beat XM in the retail channel then that is very bullish as it shows that Sirius is in demand and the only thing holding it back is the factory/dealer installed channel. We know that Sirius is way behind XM in this area, but in 1 year Sirius may catch up.
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Old 10-14-2003, 09:16 PM   #17
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Well, I've said all along that if SIRI can make it this far (and beyond) without factory installs with any major auto co. yet, it's gotta be a good sign. When SIRI gets hooked up the automakers like XM is with GM - look out !

You gotta believe that there has been some profit taking going on in the last few days, it's just amazingly enough.... more people are buying -

Anyway Manco, Wether this run will hold or not will play itself out in the next few days. I'm holding on till atleast Feb. I think there will be a big upswing before the 4Q CC, in anticipation of the sub # count. If they do indeed have a kick ass holiday season and hit the 330 target the stock will go nuts. If they dont hit the 330 # I think it'll sink back to the $2's -
All's I have to do is predict wether or not they're gonna hit that # to know wether or not to sell before the 4Q CC !!
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Old 10-14-2003, 09:24 PM   #18
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It really does come down to subs, and that's very hard to predict. We can only hope that they did really well in this quarter since they were giving away radio's and you would expect that should generate demand. I don't think you will have any problems making money by holding until Feb. I plan on buying and holding for years because this is a growth market and I would expect the stock to be trading at 8-12 in 5 years (it could be higher, but I tend to be conservative in my estimates).

I fully expected that the stock will fall after the CC as it has previously, however the recent strong demand for the stock has me thinking there's some good news coming.
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Old 10-14-2003, 11:20 PM   #19
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The thing is..with XM anyway, that the sub numbers seem to be the ONLY thing the street wants. When XM had to fianance their new satellite, the street barely blinked! Kills me, really. :\
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Old 10-15-2003, 12:02 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bandwagon03
The thing is..with XM anyway, that the sub numbers seem to be the ONLY thing the street wants. When XM had to fianance their new satellite, the street barely blinked! Kills me, really. :\
I noticed this also, but I think it can be explained by the fact that the defective satellite issue had been factored into the price long before, and so diluting the shares was received as positive news to put the uncertainty behind them.
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Old 10-15-2003, 12:36 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bandwagon03
The thing is..with XM anyway, that the sub numbers seem to be the ONLY thing the street wants. When XM had to fianance their new satellite, the street barely blinked! Kills me, really. :\
true, subs run the price to some degree, but this runup is typical siri, it has happened previously without any good reason.. in fact, look at the price days prior to the last Q2 results.. up up up.. results... down down down.. the trick to investing with SIRI is patience, and getting a feel for it, not panicing, not selling when negative vs ur purchase price.. its definitely an emotionally led stock.. I've learned my lesson previously with XM. I sold "alot" of XMSR shares that I had purchased for 2.7, for 3.50 or so.. a tidy profit, but considering where we're at now (19), considerable disappointment. I even got out at 10 (bought at 10) when I thought the satellite was crashing to earth.. and it had just run up to 14ish range the previous day, and then recovered to 13 in 3 or 4 days afterwards.. ack..

For SIRI, my trading plan has been different. I have a stash that I don't plan to touch for 2+ years. Otherwise, for fun money, I do have some additional shares (1/3 total shares) that I use for the dips and peaks. I sold a small chunk at 2.36 this morning, and the fact I didn't sell at 2.44 really doesn't bother me, you can never know exact highs/lows, but you can get a feeling of where its at.. I fully expect a retraction if news does not occur tomorrow. Overbought for 2 days, without reason.. down down down.. If however, news and another increase, I may sell another small portion, but the main 2/3 of my shares stays put.. (containing .70, 1.3 type buys). I fully believe this to be a $5-10 stock in less than 2 years time, hopefully more. That's "pay off the house" type money.. something I consider a once in a lifetime opportunity.. The possible plus outcome far outweighs the hit I'd take from a complete loss. Worth the gamble..

The next Q3 results will be a tricky call. Many investers know what happened last time. this time it could be totally opposite, or a repeat.. I think the Q3 numbers will be lower than many firms predicted, this could drive the price down.. although I see some have adjusted their estimates accordingly.. NFL, boomboxes (Jensen hello?), other PNPs (hoping for Sony or JVC), OEM announcements, outselling XM for Aug. PNP, ... could move it up.. way up..

One thing is certain, if it does dip after Q3, that will be the best time to buy more for the long run... Q4 subs will be good, very good.
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Old 10-15-2003, 12:46 AM   #22
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I like your idea of holding a "core" position, and trading the rest on dips and peaks. This is what I've been doing for awhile now and have done pretty good so far. This recent run caused me to liquidate all of my shares and now I have the hard part of figuring when to get back in. Sometimes I think watching a stock too closely can cause a person to make decisions that aren't in their best interest. I know I sold some recently at 2.04, some more at 2.08, 2.21 and my final trade was at 2.41. If I had just held all of my shares I would be much better off today. If however the stock goes into the low 2's then I will make out well. If they blow the subscription numbers away, then being in cash will be a mistake so I'm going to try and pick up some before the earnings, hoping for a sell off before then. I'll keep some cash to get some stock after the earnings report so I can cost average my shares. Then I think I will just forget trading most of them and just hold through the ups and downs.
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Old 10-15-2003, 08:16 AM   #23
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I have made a considerable profit by just hanging on to this stock.
I definately bought it for the long term. I just catch myself thinking:
Man, had I sold it here, and re-bought it here, I would've accumulated this many more shares for basically free. I havent started playing the dips and peaks yet, and when I stop and look at my position................. maybe I really dont need too - It's doing just fine without me -

Dont put all your eggs in one basket though, there are other options out there making money as well -
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Old 10-15-2003, 08:29 AM   #24
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Oh, and another thought. When it comes to sub #'s think about this.
SIRI might actually be doing very well. But the only comparison people have is XM. And with XM putting up these un-believable sub #'s it, in my opinion, makes SIRI look bad. That's why it is so vital that they hit their goal. To let everyone know they are right where they want to be.

Atleast in the general public's eyes. Anybody that does there homework knows that SIRI's CFBE point is sooner than XM's. It's just a first glance it would'nt appear that way -
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Old 10-15-2003, 09:59 AM   #25
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Treading in and out besides the commissions, what about the tax issues, short sells 36% capital gains?? Does it make sense, since the market is turning and people are looking to get in cheap. I guess it depends on your out look, and I guess I'm a buy and hold guy. People are taking profits from it this morning, but it will be back!! Gotta BELIVEVE!!!
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Old 10-15-2003, 10:07 AM   #26
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I think subscriptions numbers are important, but they are not the end all be all ... there is much more to SIRI then subscription numbers. They are following overall market trends and consumer confidence. Don't get me wrong, sub numbers are important, but there are other considerations. Last quarter they made strong sub progress and it didn't do jack to the price.
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Old 10-15-2003, 10:15 AM   #27
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Actually last quarters sub numbers met their goals but weren't very impressive. They had flat qtr to qtr sub numbers so it was hard for people to imagine how they were going to meet the year end goals. This quarter tells much more and hopefully they doubled the subs additions from last quarter. I'm hoping for a minimum of 75,000 new subs.

I actually bought back some shares this morning at 2.21 on the dip. As far as tax implications, my trades are all in retirement accounts so it doesn't impact my trading decisions.
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Old 10-15-2003, 10:31 AM   #28
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I havent done all the math to figure out all the pro's and con's. But you know what....all income is taxed. I wouldnt turn down a pay increase at work just because it meant I'd have to pay more taxes. It's all in how you look at it......

Lets say you have 10,000 shares. At .30 cent difference (between sell and buy back) = $3,000.00. After taxes and commissions you'd still end up with enough money (1,800 maybe) left over to go back and buy a nice chunk of shares. For that little inconvenience you just aquired another 800 shares or so - Keep doing that and eventually you'd have a nice pile of shares ! Then when it hits big time you'll be in the money !
(note: the math in the post is all guesstimates - see your accountant)
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Old 10-15-2003, 10:45 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trezdustrial
I havent done all the math to figure out all the pro's and con's. But you know what....all income is taxed. I wouldnt turn down a pay increase at work just because it meant I'd have to pay more taxes. It's all in how you look at it......)
exactly... and noticing the capital gains on my profits, To counter the tax hit, I just bumped up my 401k pulls to 12%, so taxable income will actually decrease with that, as its pre-tax.. and interest on the house I just bought should put a huge dent, and last but not least.. I plan to give away some furniture and old clothes to goodwill, using that as a final tax writeoff.. I'm hoping I won't owe this year.. even with the cap-gains figured in..
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Old 10-20-2003, 10:53 AM   #30
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Wow! This run is amazing. I hope there is some news to back it up or it could get ugly quick. I'm in cash, so will just have to wait to see what happens cuz I'm not buying at this level. Its too fast to soon, it's gotten ahead of itself imo.
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