Digital Radio Central - Sponsored by TSS Radio
  DRC Home Page DRC Forums Contact Us  
 
SIRIUS Backstage Forum
 
 
 
  Sirius Satellite Radio XM Satellite Radio iTunes/iPod Slacker Pandora  
 
 
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >
Visit Digital Radio Central

Notices

The Street Converse with other investors about finance, economic and investment strategies. This is also the place to discuss SIRIUS XM company news and your favorite stocks.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 11:38 AM   #31
whowasthat28
Channel Surfer
 
Join Date: May 29, 2003
Posts: 75
whowasthat28 is on a distinguished road
Default

Its fan-tastic.. I lucked out with timing this morning and got rid of some shares at 2.58 (well, it seems lucky now).. I'm not selling anymore though.. I'm with Manco_lives, waiting for another buy point.. I might go insane trying to figure that out though... I think I'll wait until Q3 results..
whowasthat28 is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 11:46 AM   #32
Trezdustrial
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Aug 07, 2003
Posts: 526
Trezdustrial is on a distinguished road
Default

I think you both will be ok.
I personally expect SIRI to settle back down after the 3Q CC.
It'll be intersting to see just how far -

2004 however should be a great year !
Trezdustrial is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 11:59 AM   #33
Manco
Top Dog Member
Nice Upward Move today
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by whowasthat28
Its fan-tastic.. I lucked out with timing this morning and got rid of some shares at 2.58
It's always nice to hit the peak. Finding a good entry point is the hardest part for me. I sold last Friday at 2.43 but I'm ok with that. I think as it gets closer to the CC I think the price will start to pull back, and unless there is some unexpected good news the price will fall after the CC. If it falls before the CC, I'm a buyer, and will buy some after the CC also just to cost average.

BTW, My price target I arrived at a few months ago was 2.50 for end of year. It looks like we are there already and will be interesting to see if it can hold.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 12:49 PM   #34
fun1
Channel Surfer
 
Join Date: Jul 08, 2003
Posts: 16
fun1 is on a distinguished road
Default

I'm with the idea that we will continue to inch up for the rest of this week. May begin to see some PT on Fri.
fun1 is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 01:25 PM   #35
Trezdustrial
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Aug 07, 2003
Posts: 526
Trezdustrial is on a distinguished road
Default

Any guesstimates for Price target year end 2004 ?

I'm thinking somewhere around $5-$6 bucks -
Trezdustrial is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 01:28 PM   #36
Manco
Top Dog Member
Nice Upward Move today
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trezdustrial
Any guesstimates for Price target year end 2004 ?

I'm thinking somewhere around $5-$6 bucks -
It very well could be in that range. Conservatively it would be 3-5 and I would be happy with that. I expect once they hit CFBE, or it becomes obvious they are going to hit it, it could be $8.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 02:26 PM   #37
Trezdustrial
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Aug 07, 2003
Posts: 526
Trezdustrial is on a distinguished road
Default

Last I knew they needed 2 million subs for CFBE - I dont think we'll see that until 2nd or 3rd Q of 2005. And thats only if Ford/Chrysler add to the sub #'s like GM has for XM -
Trezdustrial is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 10:32 PM   #38
adonos
Channel Surfer
 
Join Date: Jun 30, 2003
Posts: 82
adonos is on a distinguished road
Default

I will eat my shirt if SIRI ends the year anywhere near $4.00. I think $3.50 is a big stretch unless they add like 100k subscribers Q3 and theres some other great news for them at year end. In fact, Id bet that the top from this current run will probably hold the rest of the year... maybe even until Q4 earnings.

But right now this is a nice run on high volume with no real end in sight... unless the gap on today's open gets filled. Textbook bullish engulfing candle pattern on the 14th and 15th. If today's opening gap gets filled on high volume tomorrow, I would say its a pretty bad short-term sign.
adonos is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 10:42 PM   #39
Manco
Top Dog Member
Nice Upward Move today
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by adonos
If today's opening gap gets filled on high volume tomorrow, I would say its a pretty bad short-term sign.
I thought filling gaps was a good thing?
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 10-20-2003, 11:51 PM   #40
adonos
Channel Surfer
 
Join Date: Jun 30, 2003
Posts: 82
adonos is on a distinguished road
Default

Well, if this gap is filled quickly, it will be an exhaustion gap which is a good reversal signal. Exhaustion gaps occur after large moves in price and the gap is in the direction of the trend. The gap on 06/03/03 is a good example of an exhaustion gap. These gaps represent when the dumb money (such as mine at 06/03.. got in at 2.25.. ouch) fuel a final charge upward

Of course if it isnt filled soon it is a continuation gap which is obviously good for price. Analyzing gaps is easy several days after they have happened.

Check out http://www.stockcharts.com/education...xhaustion.html for more info.
adonos is offline  
 
 
Old 10-21-2003, 12:55 AM   #41
Manco
Top Dog Member
Nice Upward Move today
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Thanks adonos! I'm not a technical trader, but I do find technical analysis interesting. One thing is for certain, it can't go up every day forever. I think it is getting tired so we just might see a down day tomorrow.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 10-21-2003, 03:06 PM   #42
adonos
Channel Surfer
 
Join Date: Jun 30, 2003
Posts: 82
adonos is on a distinguished road
Default

Not a problem.. technical analysis is an inexact science at best... easy to do in hind-sight, harder to predict with.. especially when it gives buy signals when fundamentals tell you to sell... such as now.

The gap still hasnt closed as of this posting and price is holding over around $2.50, which would make SIRI a technical buy. But it is a fundamental sell with a roughly 30% increase in value on no news at all.
adonos is offline  
 
 
Old 10-21-2003, 03:28 PM   #43
Manco
Top Dog Member
Nice Upward Move today
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 30, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

It is somewhat nerve racking being on the sidelines waiting for it to drop. I'm much better at buy and hold but with such a fast runup on no news, I couldn't hold under those circumstances.

Unless some news comes out, I would say this is irrational exuberance. I think they are going to announce some amazing news to make this price stick like 125k sub additions for the quarter or Ford "Factory" installs.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 10-21-2003, 04:57 PM   #44
The Interpreter
Sirius Star
 
Join Date: Nov 08, 2002
Location: West Virginia
Posts: 6,207
The Interpreter is on a distinguished road
Default

Ford factory installs?

We can hope!
The Interpreter is offline  
 
 
Old 10-21-2003, 05:49 PM   #45
Trezdustrial
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Aug 07, 2003
Posts: 526
Trezdustrial is on a distinguished road
Default

Ford Factory installs start with Lincoln line in December 2003.
Other Ford lines SIRI should be available on 2004 models -
So that whole scenario is about to start playing itself out.

I hope it's just people jumping on the bandwagon knowing that 2004 is going to be a good year for Sirius, or they cant afford Xm.

Again, I dont believe anybody has great expectations for the 3rd Q CC.
Atleast I dont. But man,....would I love to be proved wrong here.

Expecting a sell off after 3Q CC But still hanging on -
Trezdustrial is offline  
 
 
 

Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >


Digitalradiocentral.com




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:47 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.39 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
All Content Copyright SIRIUS Backstage. All Rights Reserved. SIRIUS and registered trademarks are the property of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. The opinions posted on SIRIUS Backstage website and forums are those of the individual posters and/or this website and are not necessarily the opinions or positions of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc.