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Old 10-29-2003, 08:44 AM   #1
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Perhaps a shakeup is due at the top. This is dismal.
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Old 10-29-2003, 08:50 AM   #2
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I just signed up friday. So do you think that I am in that calculation? if not make that 149,601


But seriously. Do you see XM making an investment so as Sirius can stay in business so they wont end up a monopoly and then be highly regulated by the goverment.
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Old 10-29-2003, 10:02 AM   #3
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Hekker, welcome to Sirius and Backstage. Your sub will be included in the next quarterly results.
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Old 10-29-2003, 11:28 AM   #4
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I dont think thats a very good #. they have to more than double there total current sub count to hit year end goal of 330,000.

Even with the Holiday season and the Ford availability.... is this remotely possible ?
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Old 10-29-2003, 11:44 AM   #5
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I think they are backing away from the 300,000 year end number. I think part of the uncertainty is the number of radio's under the tree for Christmas may not be activated in '03. Since they expect this to be a big part of their end of year numbers, there is reason to be concerned for them hitting 300k. I'm guessing with the new guidance that we are looking at a 225k end of year number.
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:01 PM   #6
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Did they give any guidance in terms of sub numbers for the end of the year?

I gotta believe that the stock price will be hit hard if they guide down to 225k for the end of the year, since they had originally wanted 330k by year end.

Im surprised there isnt any more selling based on these results.. the stock is only down a penny or so right now. They missed sub numbers by a wide margin... unless I am mistaken they wanted 175k subs by the end of Q3
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:04 PM   #7
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I have said it before and I will say it again. Sirius needs to get going in the hardware department. With XM you have so many choice -- boombox, Roady, Commander, ect. To be honest, I selected XM first because I wanted to get the boombox with the Skyfi so I could have the portability it offered. After I was hooked on satellite radio, I purchased Sirius because I wanted the 200 channel option. I dont mean to sound like a broken record and I apologize for being repetitive, but Sirius needs to have the boombox out by Christmas in order to cash in on the holiday gift giving season. Otherwise they will continue to lose more and more to XM.
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:04 PM   #8
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Revised Year End guidance is now at 200,000+.

The Boombox from Audiovox will be available in limited quantities for the Christmas season.

Jeff
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:10 PM   #9
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One reason the stock hasn't been hammered like you expect may be because of the ARPU is now 11.20 up from 7.90 last quarter. Also they announced FACTORY installs on 47 models. The dealer must order it that way, but the factories will do the complete install including the antenna.

I did sell 1/2 of my stock today on the disappointing sub numbers, and will try and buy back at a lower price.

As far as hardware selection, I think Sirius is ok, except for the Boombox. We have 3 PNP's, soon to be 4, and will have the Kenwood Home component radio any day now. Kenwood has a commander like radio for some time. The Roady isn't as flexible as the PNP's, so how well it sells is yet to be seen. According to Circuit City website, it's getting outsold by both the Audiovox and Kenwood PNP's.

The boombox will only be available in limited qty for Christmas The JVC won't be out in time for Christmas.
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:16 PM   #10
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I think we'll be okay for the Holidays, the Audiovox PNP2 and H2A will carry us. The boombox will not be there to spark sales, so that effect will be negligable. We really need to get the Kenwood Home Unit on shelves now.

Not the slam dunk we could have had, but no reason to call off Christmas.

Jeff
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Old 10-29-2003, 12:36 PM   #11
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I haven't listened to the CC yet.

It's all about brand awareness....24% on another thread I read. I have only come across a few people who knew what Sirius was when I said I now had Sat radio...and they both had XM. Everyone else replies with "oh, you have XM?" Then I have to explain......
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Old 10-29-2003, 01:11 PM   #12
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fighting a battle on two fronts is difficult, but not impossible

1. Brand awareness is important, because XM has had a very strong first mover advantage in the marketplace

2. Consumer hesitation and general misperception of what satellite radio is.

And if there are any supply chain issues to boot, that will only exacerbate the problems

I am still confident of the product/service/corporate. I disagree with some of their marketing strategies, but that is just me.

And I have to laugh when Manco sells and buys his stock....I'm calling him Mr. SHORT for NOW .... ha ha ha *****JOKING******
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Old 10-29-2003, 01:17 PM   #13
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Didn't he drop the year end quote to 200,000? How low do you think it will go today, or do you think tomorrow will be D day? P.S. this is my first time in a chat room, and I am very new to SIRIUS investing.
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Old 10-29-2003, 01:28 PM   #14
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Welcome Jen to Sirius Backstage

I don't know how low it will go, but I'm ready to buy more if it gets in the 2-2.15 range. I sold half of my shares today, but will buy back up to 4 times what I have now if it get's low enough.
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Old 10-29-2003, 01:42 PM   #15
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Posted this in the sticky, but this seems to be the new thread everyone is using:

149,000... There is no WAY they are gonna get 330,000 by the end of the year. My prediction is that they get 250,000 tops. I don't even think the supply chain could crank out 180,000 units in a single quarter with the way it's been going lately. But I'll be willing to bet XM will have 1.2-1.3 million by next quarter. Sirius is just not catching on, and to be honest, I think this winter is their last chance to try to stay in the market. Sirius better do some serious advertising if they want to keep going concern (Stay in business), because if they don't make some headroom this quarter, they're screwed. XM is getting every quarter, double all of the subscribers we currently have. Something's gotta give.
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