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Old 08-02-2005, 11:50 AM   #16
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Q3 includes the OEM sales under the Emplyee Discount plan for DCX and now Ford and DCX have extended that program into August to include some 2006 model year vehicles. So GM will not have as good of a quarter bringing XM's OEM sales down a notch, and should boost Sirius's OEM sales a notch. I think it's way to early to predict a slow quarter for Sirius.
The Ford numbers are less than insignificant.

DCX numbers are significant -- but Sirius has already counted as subs the vehicles in dealers' hands, and the numbers aren't great (or the Q2 subs would have been better).

Furthermore, XM is killing Sirius at retail without the Sirius rebate. Their pricecut will help some, but still -- buyers have to deal with the $80 price less the $30 rebate vs. just getting a R2 at $50 or less. And we're going to be halfway through the quarter shortly.
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Old 08-02-2005, 12:56 PM   #17
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FrontMed,

Sirius Market share has been improving after the release of the XM 2 Go sold to those that wanted it.

NPD data is what everyone uses here AND on XM411. When the NPD data showed XM ahead the XM fanbois were more then happy to state it but when Sirius comes back and exceeds XM it is all of a sudden no good.

Quote:
Walmart sales of Sirius have been almost nonexistent to date; but with the new XACT items they should improve a bit. Still, I'm told by knowledgeable people that Walmart is still dominated by XM.
Sorry but your full of it. Unless your willing to show those knowledgeable secret sources you blowing smoke. You have no idea what the sales ratio at walmart is and neither do I.

In one post you tell me to speak from knowledge then you pee on the only Market share data that exists and make up some story about your buddy buddy relationship with the CEO of walmart where he hands you secret reports on the Sat radio sales figures.

Sorry I am not buying it.

Fact is more then 50% of Xms sub adds were OEM and GM gave their cars away for more then a month to help that. Then XM added a bunch more with a 2 for 1 deal. If you want to see sub numbers. Sirius is taking not losing market share once again and they are doing it even more so now that the Sportster Replay is out.
If your going to yell for folks to give facts then use them yourself.

NPD is the best data there is and it is used by many industries market wide. Front Med from the message boards saying he does not like it is not going to change that....

Xm Missed their EPS estimates.
XM retention rate for OEM subs dropped from 70+ to 58%
XM has been losing retail market share for the last 2 months.

They are not "Killing Sirius" they are doing well for sure but they are killing nothing.
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Old 08-02-2005, 02:00 PM   #18
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Wal-Mart isn't selling many Radios I'm sure (atleast not the one here). The key retail store for Sirius is RadioShack. Best Buy and Circuit City are also huge for both companies.

Frontmed, I'm not sure how you take Sirius' 48% market share and twist that to say XM is killing them in that sector. I say so what if they have to rely on the rebate, you have to loose money to make money. By your comments FrontMed I think the rise in market share is scaring you.
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Old 08-02-2005, 03:37 PM   #19
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>>but as was pointed out yesterday, Sirius counts DCX subs when they hit the dealer, so only non-DCX OEMs will matter.
------

Frontmed, I dont see anything here about this.
Care to go into it with some "facts" instead of just saying you know people or heard it somewhere?

Ive already seen you in a hour go from Walmart being exclusive to technically you can get sirius there, but it aint much.
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Old 08-02-2005, 03:49 PM   #20
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Forget about about NPD for a moment, forget about all the rebates Sirius offered, forget about the buy one get one free promo XM ran, and just look at the PURE retail numbers. I am going off the top of my head, so these numbers are NOT exact. Xm added 330K at retail, and Sirius added 240K. Again these numbers are NOT correct, just off the top of my head.... but anyway you look at it, XM's retail share was roughly 58% compared to 42% for Sirius.

I personally am LONG Sirius, I own 5,149 shares, but I was quite disappointed with the Q2 numbers. They did not add enough subs. I would have thought that they would have announced 2 million on the call, but we can see that they are not on pace to hit that until near the end of the month. They increased their guidance which is good, but we all believed that the 2.7 million was low anyway and needed to be raised. With all the hype around Sirius for year end, I am expecting 3.6 million subs for the end of Jan 2006. This will allow time for the spillover from Christmas.
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Old 08-02-2005, 04:13 PM   #21
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Sirius exceeded most expectations for the quarter, both in retail share and total subs.

OEMs, including Ford are building 2006 models now, and these will be counted in 3rd quarter subs.

July retail might be a little soft, but Aug and Sept retail should be back on track, with NFL promo and MS. The $30 rebate applies to all Sirius hardware, not just the Starmate. Remember April was soft (no Starmates nor Sportster Replays) and Sirius still got 48% for the quarter.

Also, we know the $50 Starmate (with a $50 rebate) did extremely well against the Roady2 with a 2 for 1 promotion. XMers seem to forget the 2 for 1 promotion.

Sirius will probably hit 2 million later in August. I believe they hit 600,000 about the same time last year. Pretty big improvement.
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Old 08-02-2005, 04:20 PM   #22
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Sirius Market share has been improving after the release of the XM 2 Go sold to those that wanted it.
Sirius "market share", i.e., cumulative percentage of total SDARS subscribers, does improve each quarter -- as it should. But "retail share" does NOT improve each quarter. It got better in Q4'04, when Sirius was giving hardware away (and which resulted in a $262 mln loss for Sirius in Q4). But in Q1'5 it got worse. It began to build again in Q2 AFTER the $50 rebate began. As soon as SIRI's $50 rebate was over, the numbers dropped back to near-April retail split with XM's R2 pricecut. And now, it is reasonable to expect Sirius will gain some headway with their newly announced pricecut.

Quote:
NPD data is what everyone uses here AND on XM411. When the NPD data showed XM ahead the XM fanbois were more then happy to state it but when Sirius comes back and exceeds XM it is all of a sudden no good.
This is not correct. Nobody, EVER, relies on solely NPD data because we know that it excludes the world's largest retailer as well as a large number of XM-only sellers. Without exception, the NPD numbers have ALWAYS overstated SIRI's share and understated XM's. We became well aware of this more than a year ago and the misstatements continue today.

In fact, it was over-reliance on the NPD data which caused analysts to ASSUME that Sirius would deliver 400K subs in Q2. They end up at 361K, even after counting cars that haven't even been sold yet.


Quote:
Walmart sales of Sirius have been almost nonexistent to date; but with the new XACT items they should improve a bit. Still, I'm told by knowledgeable people that Walmart is still dominated by XM.

Sorry but your full of it. Unless your willing to show those knowledgeable secret sources you blowing smoke. You have no idea what the sales ratio at walmart is and neither do I.
Bullshit. You can easily back in to Walmart/other sales from the NPD data and the two companies' reported numbers. I did that for Q4'05, the result was posted at XM411 under "Retail Share", and about 18.7% of sales were non-NPD or Walmart (the vast majority are Walmart).

[/quote]In one post you tell me to speak from knowledge then you pee on the only Market share data that exists and make up some story about your buddy buddy relationship with the CEO of walmart where he hands you secret reports on the Sat radio sales figures.[/quote]

I've made no such reference.

Quote:
I'm not buying it.
There is no "buying". The numbers are what they are.

Quote:
Fact is more then 50% of Xms sub adds were OEM and GM gave their cars away for more then a month to help that. Then XM added a bunch more with a 2 for 1 deal. If you want to see sub numbers. Sirius is taking not losing market share once again and they are doing it even more so now that the Sportster Replay is out.
This simply isn't correct. There are competent sources for this data readily available.

Quote:
NPD is the best data there is and it is used by many industries market wide. Front Med from the message boards saying he does not like it is not going to change that....
It is the best source there is but it cannot be relied upon without adjustment.

You want to argue with the facts in the spirit of a Sirius Rich. The facts are that NPD data does NOT accurately reflect retail share, and never has. Nobody who is even remotely familiar with these companies or the NPD data would make such an allegation.

Quote:
Xm Missed their EPS estimates.
XM lost 70c vs. estimates of 69c. This is more than accounted for by XM's blowout subscriber numbers which, of course, results in a higher loss. Had XM NOT blown out its subscriber numbers massively, they would have come in at 65c or better.

At the same time, SIRI's positive result was largely a result of analysts' expectations that SIRI's subscriber numbers would have been better based on XM's blowout results.

If this confuses you, you have a lot of homework to do.

Quote:
XM retention rate for OEM subs dropped from 70+ to 58%
I corrected your error in this yesterday. XM's "take rate" dropped from 60% to 58%. The 70% figure you're citing is a totally different computation. For the record, Sirius has yet to publish such a "take" rate.

Quote:
XM has been losing retail market share for the last 2 months.
This is simply not true. Where you got this idea I don't know. SIRI's retail share did improve through fathers day, but immediately returned to April levels after the rebate stopped. Again, the data is out there.

Quote:
They are not "Killing Sirius" they are doing well for sure but they are killing nothing.
Well, that's my term. XM added 647K. Sirius added 361K. That's with Sirius rebating $50 per receiver. To me, that's "killing".[/quote]
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Old 08-02-2005, 04:25 PM   #23
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Forget about about NPD for a moment, forget about all the rebates Sirius offered, forget about the buy one get one free promo XM ran, and just look at the PURE retail numbers. I am going off the top of my head, so these numbers are NOT exact. Xm added 330K at retail, and Sirius added 240K. Again these numbers are NOT correct, just off the top of my head.... but anyway you look at it, XM's retail share was roughly 58% compared to 42% for Sirius.

I personally am LONG Sirius, I own 5,149 shares, but I was quite disappointed with the Q2 numbers. They did not add enough subs. I would have thought that they would have announced 2 million on the call, but we can see that they are not on pace to hit that until near the end of the month. They increased their guidance which is good, but we all believed that the 2.7 million was low anyway and needed to be raised. With all the hype around Sirius for year end, I am expecting 3.6 million subs for the end of Jan 2006. This will allow time for the spillover from Christmas.
This is a good post -- but your expectations for 3.6 mln by Jan 31 '06 are just not very reasonable, I don't think. That would put them getting 1.8 mln over the next 6 months which just isn't very plausible.

If you figure they'll get 400K in Q3, that would leave them with 1.4 mln for the 4 months ensuing -- while Stern will help a lot in Q4, these kinds of numbers just aren't likely to happen at all. Hope you're right, but I think it is dreaming.
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Old 08-02-2005, 04:33 PM   #24
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I think it's plausible.

You can estimate somewhere around 400K-450K next quarter additions.
Total: 2.2M

For the Stern listeners we'll go by your number frontmed, although I still think it will be more

2.2M + 700K= 2.9M + Holiday Season (700K).

That gives you 3.6M, this is of course saying they have that much product on the shelves. So perhaps 3.3M-3.4M would be a better estimate.
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Old 08-02-2005, 04:40 PM   #25
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I am not saying that Sirius will have 3.6 million by Jan2006, but that is a number that I will be happy with for Sirius to have by that point in time. I certainly think that its a reach, but it is achievable. They have 7 months to double their sub count. I completely believe that its possible, especially with Howard on the way. We could see 700-800K in Q4 alone, which would be AWESOME.
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Old 08-02-2005, 06:30 PM   #26
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I think Stern will bring in a few hundred thousand subs in Q4; but a downside surprise is entirely possible.

- My bet is that Stern will not be on the air after Sept 30 and that he will effectively be gagged after this period -- which is going to make it tough for him to promote Sirius. Mel definitely didn't indicate there were going to be promotional opportunities when asked today.

- XM isn't sitting on its hands. While Stern is obviously the biggest property, XM will have four or five sets of these 2/3 hour shows by the time Stern airs. It will be "you can have Stern for x hours a day, or you can have O&A in the morning, Ron & Fez later in the morning, x, then y, then z. All reasonably attractive alternatives.

- Based on XM's projected income data for the year, I think XM is planning to lay it on thick in Q3/Q4 -- hardware pricing as well as advertising.

This isn't going to be a Stern cakewalk.
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Old 08-02-2005, 07:53 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
It will be "you can have Stern for x hours a day, or you can have O&A in the morning, Ron & Fez later in the morning, x, then y, then z. All reasonably attractive alternatives.
The majority of consumers have no clue who ron and fez are so they will not be a factor. The only thing most consumers know o&a for is that stupid little church prank they did. o&a not a factor.
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Old 08-02-2005, 10:08 PM   #28
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Whether or not the naysayers believe it or like it, the hard fact remains that Sirius is gaining on XM rapidly.

At the end of 2003, Sirius had 11% of SatRadio subscribers. At the end of 2004 they had 26%. Multiple neutral sources predict that Sirius will have 33% at the end of this year.

With Sirius's clear advantage in sports programming, combined with Stern and soon to be released portable receivers, Sirius will close the gap even further.

By the end of 2006, Sirius will be right on their heels.

And after NASCAR switches to Sirius in 2007, look for Sirius to be about dead even with them.

There are a lot of hardcore race fans who currently have XM primarily for NASCAR. Once XM loses it, they'll drop XM like a hot rock.
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Old 08-02-2005, 10:21 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by SISO
Wal-Mart isn't selling many Radios I'm sure (atleast not the one here). The key retail store for Sirius is RadioShack. Best Buy and Circuit City are also huge for both companies.
Yep.

Sirius is the exclusive satellite radio company offered by Radio Shack at its 7000+ stores.

Sirius has also teamed up with satellite TV leader Dish Network, which also has an exclusive deal with RS. With Stern on the way and multiple portable receivers fixing to hit the stores soon, the Christmas season is looking very good for Sirius.

Sirius naysayers will soon be proven to be the Grinches they are.
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Old 08-02-2005, 10:30 PM   #30
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The majority of consumers have no clue who ron and fez are so they will not be a factor. The only thing most consumers know o&a for is that stupid little church prank they did. o&a not a factor.
You're pretty wrong about this, I think. While there are die-hard Stern fans who will definitely move to Sirius to get him, I would be very surprised if XM doesn't do some serious promotion of XM 202, which will include O&A, R&F, and several other talk/comedy teams from around the country. I think it is an excellent strategy for XM and surely provides the possibility for an offering that is attractive to various regions.

This is just a difference in XM's & SIRI's style of business. XM prefers to grow their own talent (obviously, keeping the costs in line) while Sirius prefers to spend big bucks on big names. XM's strategy makes a lot more sense to me, personally, as they're ending up with a much more diverse content offering -- and by the time content begins to matter (which is still a few years off), XM will have "grown" a stable of talent that is both reasonably priced and an excellent draw.
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