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Old 08-02-2005, 10:33 PM   #31
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Whether or not the naysayers believe it or like it, the hard fact remains that Sirius is gaining on XM rapidly.
It is a pretty tough argument to make when XM is consistently adding a few hundred thousand more subs each quarter than Sirius is.

If Sirius begins to reduce the gap between their adds and XM's, then you could say that Sirius is "gaining on XM". Until then, an open minded indivdual would say that XM is widening the gap.
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Old 08-02-2005, 10:57 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by FrontMed
XM's strategy makes a lot more sense to me, personally, as they're ending up with a much more diverse content offering -- and by the time content begins to matter (which is still a few years off), XM will have "grown" a stable of talent that is both reasonably priced and an excellent draw.
Content matters NOW.

If content doesn't matter, please explain why Sirius has steadily increased its percentage of the SatRadio subscriber base each year since they opened their doors for business.

They started with 0% of the market. By the end of this year they are expected to have 33% of all SatRadio subscribers.

Sirius is doing far better than you suggest.
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:04 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
Whether or not the naysayers believe it or like it, the hard fact remains that Sirius is gaining on XM rapidly.
It is a pretty tough argument to make when XM is consistently adding a few hundred thousand more subs each quarter than Sirius is.

If Sirius begins to reduce the gap between their adds and XM's, then you could say that Sirius is "gaining on XM". Until then, an open minded indivdual would say that XM is widening the gap.
No, my argument is actually a very easy one to make. However, I will admit that there are those who are obviously unable to intellectually grasp it.

I hate to have to keep repeating myself, but it appears I must.

The following figures can be easily verified by multiple neutral sources:

At the end of 2003, Sirius had 11% of SatRadio subscribers.
At the end of 2004--26%.
At the end of this year, they are projected to have 33%.

Sirius is clearly GAINING, friend.

Now what don't you get?
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:15 PM   #34
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FrontMed is so XM bias to the point that he sounds like a troll. His constant rationalizing and justifying how great and wonderful things are with XM and how terrible they are for Sirius. If XM does it it's great, if Sirius does it's terrible.

Have you ever said anything positive about Sirius? The only threads and post I see you particpate is where you can talk up XM and talk down Sirius. Do you have a Sirius sub, don't lie now. LOL
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:18 PM   #35
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Trolling? You might not like what he has to say but at least he is backing it up with discussion and its well thought out. You might not like it nor agree with it but I'd hardly call that trolling.


He does bring up some valid points. I love Sirius and XM, I have both services but it amazes me how people here say that Sirius is catching up to XM when in fact XM is adding more subs than sirius.

If Sirius wants to spend tons of money on "Premier" content then so be it. If their sub numbers dramatically rise because of that content great, but it hasn't happened yet and I don't think Stern will be the silver bullet people are hoping for. Some people have outrageous expectations.

In the end subscription numbers are all that matters and if Sirius fails to put up some "sirius" numbers after spending all this money then they will definately need to review their business strategy.
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:24 PM   #36
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Trolling? You might not like what he has to say but at least he is backing it up with discussion and its well thought out. You might not like it nor agree with it but I'd hardly call that trolling.
I can call it whatever I like and you can disagree with it or not, that is up to you. This poster has a history and it stands out loud and clear. I didn't say he was a troll, but the point is that his constant negative bull shit make him come off like a troll and that is the way I see it. Do, I care if you like or if he likes it? Let me think about it? NO!!

I've had both services for 3 years, but its not necessary to always, always, always find the negative only in one? Which is exactly what he does. I agree he makes some valid points, but after while that gets gray cause you know he is always going to point out the negative. Regardless of what this guy says.. NOT everything about SIRIUS is negative. But if you review his post, you'd think so.

Both services have good and bad rather it be business side or the programming side in terms of content.
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:30 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAB
FrontMed is so XM bias to the point that he sounds like a troll. His constant rationalizing and justifying how great and wonderful things are with XM and how terrible they are for Sirius. If XM does it it's great, if Sirius does it's terrible.

Have you ever said anything positive about Sirius? The only threads and post I see you particpate is where you can talk up XM and talk down Sirius. Do you have a Sirius sub, don't lie now. LOL
He sounds like an XM employee whose job is to troll the larger SatRadio forums, in order to spread propaganda and misinformation.

It appears his only purpose here is to create doubts about Sirius in the minds of Sirius subscribers, as well as posters/lurkers who haven't decided on a SatRadio service yet and are here looking for info.

By spreading doubt and negativism, he hopes to steer them to XM.
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:35 PM   #38
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You are right, you can call it whatever you like its your site and your call. Seems like your taking things a bit personally though but again thats just my opinion. People seem to get bent out of shape real easily on net forums when their "Epeen" gets stepped on or something they believe in gets argued against.

His points are valid and a nice change from some rampant fanboi's and if you look at much of the investment news on Sirius the investment community are raising the exact same concerns. Are they all paid by XM too?

I guess you can call it whatever you want but there is some great DISCUSSION going on in the thread and its nice to see things active for a change instead of stagnating.

Differing opinions are what makes the world go around. Reading his statements, the rebuttals and so forth are enjoyable to me. You can learn bits and pieces and see different points of view.

No one is right yet, as we won't know the outcome for several years but Sirius could just as easily spend all this money and get little in return or it could be they rake in a ton of subs and everyone can say "neener neener neener".


We shall see, until then its a guessing game and only time will tell if the huge investment they have made into big name content will pay off or if XM's lesser investment in mid range content will be a better bet.
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Old 08-02-2005, 11:58 PM   #39
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adam28577, no one has a problem with someone discussing the services, we've been doing it on this forum for a long time. But you can't tell me that everything about Sirius is always bad, no more than you can tell me that everything about XM is bad. Its like I said both services have good and bad. I've not always agreed with decisions made by either service. I have been known to be vocal about both. Which is the point, having both services allows you to give an honest opinion about programming based on experiences. I am also an investor, so what these companies do in that respect also interest me. There is a difference in having good open discussions and one that you know, you always, always know that person is going to come out against the one side no matter what?

This is hardly personal, I am just stating what is evident if you take the time to read through the many threads. I have no personal issue with FrontMed, I am sure he/she is a nice person, but that isn't the point of this discussion.

Most subscribers that have both services tend to say, hey I like this, hey I don't like that and they do this across both services. I'd be the first to tell you that I think XM's business plan is probably better than SIRIUS's. I think XM has done a terrific job marketing themselves more so than SIRIUS as well. But that doesn't mean that SIRIUS does everything wrong now does it? XM got out the gate first and they are almost a year a head of SIRIUS not on in subscribers, but chipset wise, which means equipment. Sirius is about where they need to be, they are on track to do very well and its easy to just focus on the negative, but some of us choose not to do that. This doesn't mean we have on rose colored glasses or that we are such fans that we can't see reality, because it is just as you said. Most of this is just speculation until the end, no one knows.

I just don't understand the mentality that one service has to be all bad and the other all good or that I have to hate one in order to love the other. To me posters that post like this quickly loose credibility because they become so predictable by always rationalizing and justifying their negative bias.
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:15 AM   #40
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One thing he(FrontMed) is wrong on is the familiarity factor of O&A vs Stern. O&A come no where close to national recogntion. O&A were big in the NE USA-period. Stern was heard in every state of the union, and is a national presence, whether you like him or not. If you think he isnt the answer to everything for Sirius, you could be right- but certainly O&A and the latest collection of shock jocks XM is adding are not either. The pull that Stern has for Sirius easily out distances the O&A efforts for XM. He(FrontMed) may not be a troll, but he sure knows how to send out his negative vibe.
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:33 AM   #41
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XM Curdles as Churn Comes to Light

By Scott Moritz
TheStreet.com Senior Writer
5/6/2004 3:59 PM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/tech/scottmoritz/10158875.html

"Investors are suddenly picking up some troubling signals from XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:Nasdaq) .

The Washington, D.C., pay radio broadcaster and 2003 market favorite posted seemingly solid first-quarter financial figures Thursday, including a threefold year-over-year sales increase. But Wall Street's enthusiasm was tempered by disclosure of a stealthy and unhealthy subscriber-departure trend.

There's little question that many drivers, particularly new car buyers, are willing to pay $10 a month for 120 channels of radio programming. XM, after all, expects to have nearly 3 million customers by year-end. The nagging issues for investors are how much cash it will take to keep subscribers coming in the door and, more pointedly, how many will stay after XM paid so much to attract them.

"It's a high top-line growth company," says Rodman & Renshaw analyst Dan Ernst. "I just don't know if it's worth $8 billion," he added, referring to the company's enterprise value, or market cap plus debt. Ernst has a sell rating on the stock and neither the analyst nor his firm has any XM investment position.

Shares of the radio broadcaster fell 8% Thursday, while satellite rival Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq) dropped 5%.

At first glance, subscriber losses seem like a nonissue at XM. After all, the company reported Thursday that, on average, a mere 1.35% of its subscribers canceled service each month in the first quarter.

But like the pro forma profit calculations of yesteryear, this so-called churn number can be a slippery critter. The number is calculated at the company's discretion and, as critics point out, can include whatever numbers executives choose.

This latest wrinkle was exposed on a conference call with analysts Thursday. XM executives, responding to a question, revealed for the first time in memory a gross subscriber-addition figure. That's a figure the company hasn't routinely disclosed, preferring instead to focus on the ever-rising net figure."
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:36 AM   #42
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"A bit of back-of-the-envelope math shows why XM hasn't been eager to share the gross-adds figure. The company says it added a total of 475,000 customers in the first quarter.

That looks good, but recall that XM added 321,675 new subscribers in the quarter on a net basis. That means 153,325 customers somehow vanished -- putting the monthly churn at something like 3.8%, nearly three times the official count.

That churn figure looks substantially less rosy, though XM representatives were quick to explain why. They say their churn number excludes customers who drop the service after a three-month introduction when they buy an XM-equipped car. "We felt comfortable" disclosing the gross subscriber figure on the call rather than having analysts guess at it, says a company rep.

XM adds that it converts about 70% of these promotional users into monthly subscribers. But as observers note, all the promotional users are counted in the overall subscriber totals.

Counting freeloaders as actual customers helps XM pump up its subscriber growth and helps spread the per-gross-add costs over a much wider base, say critics. That makes it look like acquisition expenses are coming down, an important consideration at a cash-burning company.

Still, keeping customers is just as important as winning them. The company says it expects to spend $110 for every customer it adds. But if the customer doesn't stick around for a year, paying the full $10 per month, XM will have trouble recouping its investment.

For its part, XM says it probably won't offer two different churn numbers in future press releases. But the company rep says XM "may be more open than we have been in the past" in disclosing gross subscriber additions.

"That would be more in keeping with the times," says Rodman's Ernst."

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech...0158875_2.html
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:37 AM   #43
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Why are you posting the old news in this thread?
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:48 AM   #44
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Why are you posting the old news in this thread?
Because FrontMed posted the following earlier in this thread:


"The fact is that XM added 647K subs, whereas Sirius added 361K subs -- that's 64/36 anyway you slice it. Now, we find out they are effectively "channel stuffing" by counting Chrysler vehicles as subs when they are shipped to the dealer rather than when they are sold."


I posted it to prove that Sirius isn't the only one allegedly "stuffing".

XM has a history of using deceptive numbers.
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Old 08-03-2005, 12:59 AM   #45
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You're pretty wrong about this, I think. While there are die-hard Stern fans who will definitely move to Sirius to get him, I would be very surprised if XM doesn't do some serious promotion of XM 202, which will include O&A, R&F, and several other talk/comedy teams from around the country. I think it is an excellent strategy for XM and surely provides the possibility for an offering that is attractive to various regions.

This is just a difference in XM's & SIRI's style of business. XM prefers to grow their own talent (obviously, keeping the costs in line) while Sirius prefers to spend big bucks on big names. XM's strategy makes a lot more sense to me, personally, as they're ending up with a much more diverse content offering -- and by the time content begins to matter (which is still a few years off), XM will have "grown" a stable of talent that is both reasonably priced and an excellent draw.
I've never heard of Ron and Fez. XM prefers to grow their own talent? They spent a lot of money on O&A...tried to charge a premium and then had to back off of it because people weren't signing up.

Sirius isn't trying to grow it's own talent? Maxim radio? Faction? and many more.... The minute you "grow" a stable of talent their deal is up and they start demanding big money.

Where have you gotten the impression that Sirius is going to just play Stern all day? Karmazin has already said that is not the case. He doesn't want to dilute Stern's brand by playing it on a loop all day like XM did with Opie and Anthony.

Do you think Stern has any connections to other radio personalities that may be interested in making a jump to satellite radio? Do you think his show will just end and the channel will be silent the rest of the day? You don't think Sirius and Stern are planning the rest of the channel?

To say that XM's content is more diverse than Sirius' is ridiculous. At the end of the day both services are pretty equally diverse. Sure you can say XM plays more obscure songs, blah blah blah....but that doesn't make it more diverse. I personally can't listen to an XM channel for more than a couple songs in a row because I'll be hit with a song that either doesn't fit or an obscure song I've never heard before.

Now you're saying content WILL matter, but in a few years? Come on. Content matters now. Content is the differentiator. Most consumers still don't know the difference between XM and Sirius....when you say Stern, NFL, NBA, NHL you get it....when you say MLB, O&A you get it.

If content doesn't matter now, why does XM make such a big point of the content they offer with a side by side comparison to Sirius on their website? Why did they just sign a deal with the USTA?

Content matters and Sirius is the leader.
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