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Old 08-03-2005, 01:04 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renaissance Man
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manco
Why are you posting the old news in this thread?
Because FrontMed posted the following earlier in this thread:


"The fact is that XM added 647K subs, whereas Sirius added 361K subs -- that's 64/36 anyway you slice it. Now, we find out they are effectively "channel stuffing" by counting Chrysler vehicles as subs when they are shipped to the dealer rather than when they are sold."


I posted it to prove that Sirius isn't the only one allegedly "stuffing".

XM has a history of using deceptive numbers.
XM definitely uses deceptive numbers....they count all cars equipped with XM satellite radio as subscribers...even if the person who bought the car didn't sign up to extend past the free deal. Then if the person doesn't subscribe that sub just gets erased and doesn't count towards churn.

And for now XM has many more cars equipped with satellite radio than Sirius because they are partially owned by GM/Honda.
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Old 08-03-2005, 01:05 AM   #47
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satradfan, take your rose colored glasses off, you know XM has better and more diverse content, because they grow it. Their accounting firm uses Erasermate Ink pins on those OEM's that don't subscribe . ROTFLOL

Great Post by the way!
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Old 08-03-2005, 01:13 AM   #48
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Quote:
I posted it to prove that Sirius isn't the only one allegedly "stuffing".

XM has a history of using deceptive numbers.
The amateurish article you linked to notwithstanding, it isn't really worthy of a big debate here -- but in defense of Xm's treatment, XM's practice in this matter is

a) totally consistent with what is done in other industries (e.g., the cellphone business), and

b) fully disclosed.

Again, this isn't the place to debate XM issues, but a strong case can be made that XM's treatment is not only appropriate, but the best possible treatment given the circumstances. Furthermore, if anyone DOES have a disagreement with XM's subscriber accounting, the disclosure is thorough and deep.

(As an aside, Sirius is carrying as "subscribers", not only DCX factory installs which haven't been sold yet, but also DCX promotional subscribers, 40% of whom will not re-up when the 1 year period expires. This is precisely what XM does in this regard, and is appropriate).
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Old 08-03-2005, 01:17 AM   #49
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XM definitely uses deceptive numbers....they count all cars equipped with XM satellite radio as subscribers...even if the person who bought the car didn't sign up to extend past the free deal. Then if the person doesn't subscribe that sub just gets erased and doesn't count towards churn.
This is not correct. If a person does not subscribe within three months of purchasing the vehicle (when the OEM-paid subscription expires) the person is no longer a subscriber. However, it is also NOT churn, as churn is defined exclusive of promotional subscribers. As previously stated, this is done in other industries and I suspect will be done by Sirius as well, beginning in Q3 or Q4, when they begin to lose subs to expiring promos.

Quote:
And for now XM has many more cars equipped with satellite radio than Sirius because they are partially owned by GM/Honda.
And XM discloses precisely the number of cars in such promotional periods. See if you can find that out about Sirius.[/quote]
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Old 08-03-2005, 01:46 AM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
and by the time content begins to matter (which is still a few years off)
ROTFLMAO!

Content matters NOW.

You've got a lot of gall calling the article I linked to "amateurish", when the word best describes your own posts.

They're professional investment news reporters and advisers. You're a poseur.
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Old 08-03-2005, 05:06 AM   #51
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This is a funny thread..Both companies use just about the EXACT same accounting methods yet XM is being deceptive and Sirius isn't!!

If anyone out there can point to a company,any company including Sirius thats doesn't fudge the numbers at least alittle bit please point this company out to the rest of us...
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Old 08-03-2005, 07:33 AM   #52
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Frontmed,
Im still waiting for for you to show some proof that Sirius is counting Chryslers cars that are not sold yet as subs.
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Old 08-03-2005, 08:09 AM   #53
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>>if anyone DOES have a disagreement with XM's subscriber accounting, the disclosure is thorough and deep.
---------

Yet when you look at the numbers for xm this year one has to wonder how thorough and deep they rreally are.

First quarter they add 541,540 new subs and have 3,770,264 total subs at the end of the quarter.

Now they end the second quarter with 4,417,490 after adding 647,226 new subs.

So if you do some quick math not 1 sub dropped off or canceled their subscription, can this be possible?

No it is not, call it what you will but its how things are done, so if you are going to jump all over another company for how they do things, better look in the mirror first.
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Old 08-03-2005, 09:19 AM   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MeDude
Now they end the second quarter with 4,417,490 after adding 647,226 new subs.

So if you do some quick math not 1 sub dropped off or canceled their subscription, can this be possible?
It's simple.

XM announced that they had added 647,226 net new subs.

Here's the first paragraph from their press release:
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) today reported financial and operating results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2005. For the quarter, XM reported revenue of $125 million, an increase of 136 percent over the $53 million reported in the second quarter 2004. The significant revenue growth was driven by record second quarter net subscriber additions of 647,226, a 55 percent increase over the 418,449 subscribers added in the second quarter 2004. XM ended the quarter with 4,417,490 subscribers compared with 2,100,352 subscribers reported for the second quarter 2004.

(emphasis mine)
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Old 08-03-2005, 09:52 AM   #55
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One way that XM stuffs the numbers is they count a 3 month promo sub as a sub for 4 months even if they never subscribe. This is very odd accounting, and pushes the churn into the next quarter where it can be counted against an even larger base of subscribers.


Edit: Actually XM doesn't count a promo as churn for 6 months even if they don't subscribe. This is to give their marketing dept. time to pursuade them to subscribe.
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Old 08-03-2005, 09:55 AM   #56
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Frontmed used to post on the Raging Bull SIRI board, but last year he made a bet that Sirius would not get over 900,000 subs by year end -- if it did he would leave RB forever. Needless to say he doesn't post there anymore. At least he honored that bet.

Last August on RB he also was urging everyone to sell Sirius in the $2 range and buy XM. He couldn't see any reason to own Sirius when he claimed XM as so much better.

Just to let everyone here know where his bias is. As DAB said, he can't find anything good about Sirius, and finds XM flawless.
----------------

Also as to whether XM counts non-paying OEM subs -- they do. Last quarter they extended the promotional period 1 month beyond the 3 month pre-paid period, so now the promotional subs are included for 4 months not 3.
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Old 08-03-2005, 10:43 AM   #57
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Quote:
Frontmed,
Im still waiting for for you to show some proof that Sirius is counting Chryslers cars that are not sold yet as subs.
Listen to the CC from yesterday. It is discussed extensively when Mancini asks her questions at the end.
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Old 08-03-2005, 10:48 AM   #58
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Quote:
Yet when you look at the numbers for xm this year one has to wonder how thorough and deep they rreally are.

First quarter they add 541,540 new subs and have 3,770,264 total subs at the end of the quarter.

Now they end the second quarter with 4,417,490 after adding 647,226 new subs.

So if you do some quick math not 1 sub dropped off or canceled their subscription, can this be possible?
These are NET figures, genius. LOL.

Quote:
No it is not, call it what you will but its how things are done, so if you are going to jump all over another company for how they do things, better look in the mirror first.
If you're going to challenge someone else's remarks you might want to have a clue what you're talking about first.
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Old 08-03-2005, 11:03 AM   #59
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Quote:
Frontmed used to post on the Raging Bull SIRI board, but last year he made a bet that Sirius would not get over 900,000 subs by year end -- if it did he would leave RB forever. Needless to say he doesn't post there anymore. At least he honored that bet.

Last August on RB he also was urging everyone to sell Sirius in the $2 range and buy XM. He couldn't see any reason to own Sirius when he claimed XM as so much better.

Just to let everyone here know where his bias is. As DAB said, he can't find anything good about Sirius, and finds XM flawless.
The first two paragraphs above are accurate. They are incomplete and out of context, but accurate. In fairness, I posted thousands of posts over there, and you have picked a couple that suit your needs.

The third paragraph is absolutely false. When Sirius fired Clayton and hired Mel, I was EXTREMELY supportive. But it is a fact that Sirius' accomplishments pale by comparison with XM. Sorry, these are the facts and other than purchasing content for too much money, you cannot point to an example of Sirius leadership. I do not find content acquired at some multiple of its value to be "leadership".

I'm first to state it when Sirius does something that helps shareholders. But it is, unfortunately, a fairly infrequent event. Sirius is behind in every aspect of the business EXCEPT for spending money. If one believes that Stern is the savior, then you could argue that Stern puts Sirius ahead in the shock jock category. This is not my view, but everyone gets an opinion.

As to the first two paragraphs, when they hired Mel I believe the value of the company went up, and I still think it is a great buy in the $3-4 range. XM continues to be a much superior investment.

If you have an argument with me, why don't you make your case on the facts rather than trying to grab out of context remarks from my history? Yes, I have an anti-Sirius bias, but that bias exists because of Sirius' abject failure to execute to date. And it is a fact that XM's execution has been superb in every respect. If you don't agree, fine -- let's hear it.

Do you have anything besides, "We got Stern"???
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Old 08-03-2005, 11:06 AM   #60
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Quote:
One way that XM stuffs the numbers is they count a 3 month promo sub as a sub for 4 months even if they never subscribe. This is very odd accounting, and pushes the churn into the next quarter where it can be counted against an even larger base of subscribers.

Edit: Actually XM doesn't count a promo as churn for 6 months even if they don't subscribe. This is to give their marketing dept. time to pursuade them to subscribe.
This is an absolute untruth -- I believe you got this nonsense from Sirius_Rich.

If one does not respond to the two letters and one phone call from XM during the promotional period, the radio is deactivated within a few days of expiration of the promo period. This was true as of the end of July.

There is no "30 day grace period" as you and others have claimed. This, by the way, is easily verified through a substantive revenue test based on ARPU figures provided in XM's financial disclosure.
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