Digital Radio Central - Sponsored by TSS Radio
  DRC Home Page DRC Forums Contact Us  
 
SIRIUS Backstage Forum
 
 
 
  Sirius Satellite Radio XM Satellite Radio iTunes/iPod Slacker Pandora  
 
 
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >
Visit Digital Radio Central

Notices

The Street Converse with other investors about finance, economic and investment strategies. This is also the place to discuss SIRIUS XM company news and your favorite stocks.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 11:18 AM   #61
rudder
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 103
rudder is on a distinguished road
Default

Sirius Leadership


Commercial Free Music -- XM follows when they realize they can't compete without it.

Sub Pricing $12.95 -- XM follows when they realize their business model doesn't work without a higher price or advertizing, which they can't do because of Sirius leadership.

Content -- after Sirius got the NFL, XM had to overpay for MLB or be left behind in sports. (I won't mention Stern vs. O&A, whoever they are.)

Hardware pricing -- Sirius made the customer offer of a $50 Starmate, with rebate, and got 53% NPD share in June, XM follows in July with a $50 Roady2


Just a few examples. More to follow later this year.

I have no more time for you. Enjoy.
rudder is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 11:39 AM   #62
jon galt
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 02, 2002
Posts: 247
jon galt is on a distinguished road
Default

In the end we need both companies to survive and do well, it validates the industry.

I'm fine with Sirius always being #2. I'm just here to make money on a stock, not to win some kind of race.
jon galt is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 12:07 PM   #63
Spoons
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 31, 2003
Posts: 188
Spoons is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
But it is a fact that Sirius' accomplishments pale by comparison with XM. Sorry, these are the facts and other than purchasing content for too much money, you cannot point to an example of Sirius leadership. I do not find content acquired at some multiple of its value to be "leadership"."???
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
If you have an argument with me, why don't you make your case on the facts rather than trying to grab out of context remarks from my history?
Ok, then please take your own advice and stick with facts. Unless there is empirical evidence you can share with me that suggests Sirius' programming decisions are "too much money", then please appropriately categorize your speculation as just that, "speculation". No more "I think", show me the ROI or something if you're going to call it 'fact'.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
If one believes that Stern is the savior, then you could argue that Stern puts Sirius ahead in the shock jock category. This is not my view, but everyone gets an opinion."???
I assume you listened to the same CC I did this week where every other analyst covering the industry wanted to know more about Howard. You seem to find yourself in small company to ignore Howard's impact.

FM - I won't argue with you that XM holds an envious position in our industry and that for the most part I feel its management is doing positive things from a business perspective. For the life of me, I can't make sense why you spend so much of your time trying to convince some of us Sirius supporters that we're blind. You keep mentioning numbers and fundamentals as your basis for argument yet you have some long positions in SIRI based on the emotional trading it experiences. I know you can see the benefits of those things that don't make it to print, else why would buy those call options? Can you agree that Howard, the NFL, Martha Stewart, and NPR have helped raised the underdog's much needed public awareness/image? The image of a company is difficult to capture on a piece of paper or in a 10-Q. Image is everything. Karmazin carries the image of respect, Panero carries the image of arrogance. Karmazin and his predecors are building a company that will have personality, Panero is building a company that operates like a machine (so far, a well tuned machine but a machine nonetheless).

Sirius has character and for that I will stick with it. XM is a well runned business but in my opinion is lacking character today.[/quote]
Spoons is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 12:36 PM   #64
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Commercial Free Music -- XM follows when they realize they can't compete without it.
XM simply adjusted its strategy to competitive pressure. You're dissing them for THAT?

Quote:
Sub Pricing $12.95 -- XM follows when they realize their business model doesn't work without a higher price or advertizing, which they can't do because of Sirius leadership.
Please. XM increased its fees because it COULD. The stock popped $4 that day. Even before this, every analyst save one or two had XM rated higher than Sirius.

Quote:
Content -- after Sirius got the NFL, XM had to overpay for MLB or be left behind in sports. (I won't mention Stern vs. O&A, whoever they are.)
This is a subject there is no end to. But it is clear that MLB was a much better 'get' than NFL. SIRI overpaid for NFL, severely. The content is unimportant; they essentially bought marketing rights. XM's acquisition of MLB made a ton more sense. But there is no end to this argument.

Quote:
Hardware pricing -- Sirius made the customer offer of a $50 Starmate, with rebate, and got 53% NPD share in June, XM follows in July with a $50 Roady2
You really don't get it. XM ended Q2 with 56% retail share. More importantly, the R2 pricing is typical closeout pricing in advance of the new model coming out very soon. And they are KILLING Sirius at retail with it.

XM can cut pricing indiscriminantly at this point because of its 18 month or longer tech lead.[/quote]
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 12:39 PM   #65
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
I assume you listened to the same CC I did this week where every other analyst covering the industry wanted to know more about Howard.
Sure. Sirius is on the hook for a half billion dollars. It isn't shocking that the analysts want to know how they going to pay for him.

A couple of them (Mancini, who is a Sirius pumper, for example) are enamoured with Stern. But the more competent analysts realize it is an uphill battle.

Rather than lob accusations at me, how about we see where we are six months from now? I think the question will have been answered by that time.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 12:48 PM   #66
Spoons
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 31, 2003
Posts: 188
Spoons is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrongMed
Rather than lob accusations at me, how about we see where we are six months from now? I think the question will have been answered by that time.
I'm sorry if you felt I was being too direct with you, I don't recall any accusations though. Sometimes being direct with some folks will actually result in direct responses but I see you didn't answer any of my questions. Take some time to think about it and get back with me but please quit trying to spin your opinion into fact.
Spoons is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 01:20 PM   #67
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Take some time to think about it and get back with me but please quit trying to spin your opinion into fact.
What statement of mine, exactly, do you take offense with? I'll be glad to clarify.[/quote]
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 02:03 PM   #68
MeDude
Mixologist
 
Join Date: Dec 22, 2004
Location: here
Posts: 379
MeDude is on a distinguished road
Default

>>These are NET figures, genius. LOL.
-----

Right they are "net" figures, never said they were anything other.
Btw what was the gross #?

But my point is if you have 100 total at the end of last quarter and add 50 "NEW" net subscribers in the next quarter and didnt lose any, yes you have 150 total.
But if you lost 5 from the original 100 and you add the "NEW NET" subscibers from THIS quarter to last quarters totals, then you only have 145 not the 150.
Both companys are doing this.


>>If you're going to challenge someone else's remarks you might want to have a clue what you're talking about first.
----------

I have never said anythng about one doing something better or the other one being a joke. I have a clue, but i wanna be just like you.
MeDude is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 03:19 PM   #69
Amnesia
Sirius Star
 
Amnesia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 03, 2004
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,035
Amnesia is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MeDude
But my point is if you have 100 total at the end of last quarter and add 50 "NEW" net subscribers in the next quarter and didnt lose any, yes you have 150 total.
But if you lost 5 from the original 100 and you add the "NEW NET" subscibers from THIS quarter to last quarters totals, then you only have 145 not the 150.
Both companys are doing this.
There's no such thing as "new net"; the word you're looking for is "gross".

XM and Sirius both give information about net subscribers added. This number is derived by taking the number of subscribers at the end of the period and subtracting the number of subscribers at the beginning of the period. The remainder is the net additional subscribers.

To use your example, if a company started with 100 and lost 10 existing subscribers but gained 60 new subscribers, they'd end up with 150 subscribers. 150 - 100 = 50 net additional subscribers.

Yes, both companies do this because it is a cross-industry standard.

In order to derive the gross additional subscribers (that is, the number of new subscribers without taking into account the cancellations), you'd need to factor in the company's churn. Unfortunately, churn is not a cross-industry standard and therefore there is no universally recognized formula.
__________________
Amnesia is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 05:01 PM   #70
Renaissance Man
Sirius Star
 
Join Date: Jul 27, 2005
Posts: 1,190
Renaissance Man is on a distinguished road
Default

It's sad that a few people here are quite negative about Sirius, and can find virtually nothing good to say about the company.

Let's look at some of the good news:

2Q-05 revenue up $39 million from 2Q-04, a 295% increase.

Subscriber acquisition cost reduced 32%, from $234 a year ago to $160.

Average monthly churn only 1.4%.

Sirius shares are up some 45% since late April.

Sirius stock lost only 13 cents per share. Most analysts expected 15 cents. (XM stock lost seventy cents per share the same quarter.)

2005 total revenue is expected to be 10 to $15 million dollars higher than previously predicted.

Net subscriber additions for 2Q-05 up 184% over 2Q-04.

2005 year-end subscriber guidance increased from 2.7 to 3 million.
Renaissance Man is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 05:06 PM   #71
jon galt
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 02, 2002
Posts: 247
jon galt is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renaissance Man
It's sad that a few people here are quite negative about Sirius, and can find virtually nothing good to say about the company.

Let's look at some of the good news:

2Q-05 revenue up $39 million from 2Q-04, a 295% increase.

Subscriber acquisition cost reduced 32%, from $234 a year ago to $160.

Average monthly churn only 1.4%.

Sirius shares are up some 45% since late April.

Sirius stock lost only 13 cents per share. Most analysts expected 15 cents. (XM stock lost seventy cents per share the same quarter.)

2005 total revenue is expected to be 10 to $15 million dollars higher than previously predicted.

Net subscriber additions for 2Q-05 up 184% over 2Q-04.

2005 year-end subscriber guidance increased from 2.7 to 3 million.
"Sirius stock lost only 13 cents per share. Most analysts expected 15 cents. (XM stock lost seventy cents per share the same quarter.)"

yes, but how many shares does XM have out there vs us?

As for the % off of 2004, when growing from nada most % will look great.
jon galt is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 05:30 PM   #72
Renaissance Man
Sirius Star
 
Join Date: Jul 27, 2005
Posts: 1,190
Renaissance Man is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jon galt
yes, but how many shares does XM have out there vs us?

As for the % off of 2004, when growing from nada most % will look great.
Your first remark is irrelevant. A stockholder holding shares of Sirius would have lost only 13 cents a share, while an XM stockholder holding the same amount of shares would've lost seventy cents per. If you're a large stockholder, a seventy cent per share loss isn't pleasant.

2004 was "nada"?! You have an odd definition of "nada". At the end of 2003, Sirius had 11% of SatRadio subscribers. At the end of 2004, they had 26% of subscribers.

So 2004 was a very respectable year for Sirius. Going from 11% of the market to 26% doesn't sound like "nada" to me.

At the end of this year, Sirius is predicted to have 33%.
Renaissance Man is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 05:47 PM   #73
Amnesia
Sirius Star
 
Amnesia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 03, 2004
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 2,035
Amnesia is on a distinguished road
Default

Sorry, but I can't avoid a semantic argument.

Let's say that your mother was 19 years old when you were born.

When you were 1, she was 20. You were 5% of her age.
When you were 2, she was 21. You were 10% of her age.
(...)
When you were 19, she was 38. You were 50% of her age.

Are you catching up? Do you think that you'll ever reach the same age as her?

I personally don't know whether or not Sirius will ever have the same number of subscribers as XM, but the fact that SIRI started the year with 11% market share and ended with 26% does not mean that they are catching up.

The only way that Sirius can catch up is to consistently sign up more subs per quarter than XM. And logically, that means that every quarter that they sign up fewer subs than XM they are falling farther behind.
__________________
Amnesia is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 06:24 PM   #74
TX WJ
Top Dog Member
NO 2 Million??
 
TX WJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 25, 2002
Location: Driving The Carolinas
Posts: 11,177
TX WJ will become famous soon enoughTX WJ will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to TX WJ Send a message via MSN to TX WJ
Default

__________________
Sirius Subscriber Since July 02, Sirius Lifetime Subscriber.

Sirius Factory Install with JBL / Voice Activated Navigation in 2009 Camry XLE V-6

Sirius Sportser 4 & Factory XM installed in 06 Odyssey

Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill. That we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
TX WJ is offline  
 
 
Old 08-03-2005, 06:56 PM   #75
StoliMike
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Apr 14, 2005
Posts: 206
StoliMike is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnesia
Sorry, but I can't avoid a semantic argument.

Let's say that your mother was 19 years old when you were born.

When you were 1, she was 20. You were 5% of her age.
When you were 2, she was 21. You were 10% of her age.
(...)
When you were 19, she was 38. You were 50% of her age.

Are you catching up? Do you think that you'll ever reach the same age as her?

I personally don't know whether or not Sirius will ever have the same number of subscribers as XM, but the fact that SIRI started the year with 11% market share and ended with 26% does not mean that they are catching up.

The only way that Sirius can catch up is to consistently sign up more subs per quarter than XM. And logically, that means that every quarter that they sign up fewer subs than XM they are falling farther behind.
Bravo! Great example!
StoliMike is offline  
 
 
 

Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >


Digitalradiocentral.com




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:37 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.39 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
All Content Copyright SIRIUS Backstage. All Rights Reserved. SIRIUS and registered trademarks are the property of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. The opinions posted on SIRIUS Backstage website and forums are those of the individual posters and/or this website and are not necessarily the opinions or positions of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc.