Digital Radio Central - Sponsored by TSS Radio
  DRC Home Page DRC Forums Contact Us  
 
SIRIUS Backstage Forum
 
 
 
  Sirius Satellite Radio XM Satellite Radio iTunes/iPod Slacker Pandora  
 
 
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >
Visit Digital Radio Central

Notices

The Street Converse with other investors about finance, economic and investment strategies. This is also the place to discuss SIRIUS XM company news and your favorite stocks.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 06:26 AM   #1
joesal905
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Jun 09, 2003
Location: Boothwyn, PA
Posts: 626
joesal905 is on a distinguished road
Send a message via AIM to joesal905
Default NO 2 Million??

We have not heard an announcement of 2 million subs yet because we are not there yet. This is a bit disappointing. Q2 was not as good as I was expecting for net adds. I was completely expecting to have 2 million by this conf call, but have not heard anything yet to confirm that.
joesal905 is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 06:51 AM   #2
SISO
Sirius Star
 
SISO's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 20, 2004
Location: East Tennessee
Posts: 7,591
SISO will become famous soon enoughSISO will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to SISO Send a message via MSN to SISO Send a message via Yahoo to SISO
Default

Dang, wait just a little longer. Have paitience.
__________________
SISO is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 09:15 AM   #3
Manco
Top Dog Member
NO 2 Million??
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 29, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

They should reach 2M by the end of this month at the current sub aquisition rate.
Manco is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 09:25 AM   #4
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
They should reach 2M by the end of this month at the current sub aquisition rate.
The current rate is quite a bit lower than last quarter.

Without the $50 rebate SIRI is getting killed at retail, and the retail performance last quarter was largely tied to the Fathers Day season. Oem should be improved a bit, but as was pointed out yesterday, Sirius counts DCX subs when they hit the dealer, so only non-DCX OEMs will matter.

Q3 could be shockingly bad.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 09:34 AM   #5
TX WJ
Top Dog Member
NO 2 Million??
 
TX WJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 25, 2002
Location: Driving The Carolinas
Posts: 11,177
TX WJ will become famous soon enoughTX WJ will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to TX WJ Send a message via MSN to TX WJ
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
They should reach 2M by the end of this month at the current sub aquisition rate.
The current rate is quite a bit lower than last quarter.

Without the $50 rebate SIRI is getting killed at retail, and the retail performance last quarter was largely tied to the Fathers Day season. Oem should be improved a bit, but as was pointed out yesterday, Sirius counts DCX subs when they hit the dealer, so only non-DCX OEMs will matter.

Q3 could be shockingly bad.
They said that they had 48% retail market share in the 2nd quarter with a 52% retail market share in June. They are adding a $30 reabate, and they have dropped the Starmate price to $79 or $49 after the rebate.
__________________
Sirius Subscriber Since July 02, Sirius Lifetime Subscriber.

Sirius Factory Install with JBL / Voice Activated Navigation in 2009 Camry XLE V-6

Sirius Sportser 4 & Factory XM installed in 06 Odyssey

Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill. That we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
TX WJ is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 09:49 AM   #6
Spoons
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 31, 2003
Posts: 188
Spoons is on a distinguished road
Default

FM - do you own any SIRI shares?
Spoons is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 10:37 AM   #7
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
FM - do you own any SIRI shares?
No, just options.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 10:41 AM   #8
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
They said that they had 48% retail market share in the 2nd quarter with a 52% retail market share in June. They are adding a $30 reabate, and they have dropped the Starmate price to $79 or $49 after the rebate.
These were NPD figures, which grossly understate XM's market share. They have, time and again, cited these 50% or higher figures only to have the real retail share come in in the low 40s or worse. This is because NPD does not count Walmart or many other XM-only retailers.

The fact is that XM added 647K subs, whereas Sirius added 361K subs -- that's 64/36 anyway you slice it. Now, we find out they are effectively "channel stuffing" by counting Chrysler vehicles as subs when they are shipped to the dealer rather than when they are sold.

Geez, it is one thing to support your choice -- but don't be blinded by it. Sirius has spent hundreds of millions on content that is supposed to bring huge numbers of subscribers, and it simply isn't happening. The increased guidance to 3 mln is great; but they're likely to have to cut the hell out of hardware prices to get there.

Now they're borrowing another $400 mln and have an outstanding shelf registration for $500 mln.

I'm not sure what it says, with what can only be described as a worse-than-mediocre quarter (by comparison with XM's), and the stock isn't getting hit hard. If shareholders were thinking rationally about today's CC, the stock would be getting hit very hard.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 10:51 AM   #9
rizzy
Mixologist
 
Join Date: Jul 15, 2005
Location: Columbus, OH
Posts: 286
rizzy is on a distinguished road
Default

Frontmed you are a member of the xm411 message board correct?
__________________
[t:de713787a8]u=Rizzy&c=FFA500[/t:de713787a8]
rizzy is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 10:55 AM   #10
Spoons
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Oct 31, 2003
Posts: 188
Spoons is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
FM - do you own any SIRI shares?
No, just options.
Do you mind sharing with us whether those SIRI options are short or long positions? Buying or selling? Thanks.
Spoons is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 10:58 AM   #11
AZJoe
Top Dog Member
 
AZJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 29, 2002
Location: Phoenix, Arizona / Anchorage, Alaska
Posts: 3,720
AZJoe will become famous soon enoughAZJoe will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to AZJoe Send a message via MSN to AZJoe Send a message via Yahoo to AZJoe
Default

While its "fun" to speculate and guess about XM & Sirius, somethings are for certain.....they both are growing rapidly, and they both have a long ways to go to get out of debt. I often find it amusing when someone says "we are better than you, we are only losing half as much money as you are". This is still a failry new industry and both have bumps to go over, but prospects down that bumpy road look pretty good. Speculate all you wish, but I think XM and Sirius are here to stay.
__________________
NO 2 Million??
AZJoe is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 11:01 AM   #12
Casual Fan
Sirius Star
 
Casual Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 19, 2004
Location: Southwest Virginia
Posts: 3,726
Casual Fan has a spectacular aura aboutCasual Fan has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
This is because NPD does not count Walmart or many other XM-only retailers.
Wal-Mart is not an XM-only retailer.
__________________
We've all left and gone to
http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/
where the SBS spirit lives on!

Casual Fan is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 11:16 AM   #13
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Wal-Mart is not an XM-only retailer.
I'm sorry -- you're correct -- you can technically buy Sirius radios at Walmart.

Walmart sales of Sirius have been almost nonexistent to date; but with the new XACT items they should improve a bit. Still, I'm told by knowledgeable people that Walmart is still dominated by XM.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 11:19 AM   #14
FrontMed
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: May 15, 2005
Posts: 104
FrontMed is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Do you mind sharing with us whether those SIRI options are short or long positions? Buying or selling? Thanks.
My position consists of a considerable number of bull spreads, so I'm long Sirius at the current time.

I am not long on the basis of Sirius' financial performance, however -- it has been pathetic for several years and that continues today. I am long on the expectations that the hype surrounding Stern's arrival and the neophyte retail investors will run the price up into the holiday selling season.

My XM position is much larger because XM is a better investment in every respect. In my opinion.
FrontMed is offline  
 
 
Old 08-02-2005, 11:25 AM   #15
Manco
Top Dog Member
NO 2 Million??
 
Manco's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 29, 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 15,450
Manco will become famous soon enoughManco will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
They should reach 2M by the end of this month at the current sub aquisition rate.
The current rate is quite a bit lower than last quarter.

Without the $50 rebate SIRI is getting killed at retail, and the retail performance last quarter was largely tied to the Fathers Day season. Oem should be improved a bit, but as was pointed out yesterday, Sirius counts DCX subs when they hit the dealer, so only non-DCX OEMs will matter.

Q3 could be shockingly bad.
Q3 includes the OEM sales under the Emplyee Discount plan for DCX and now Ford and DCX have extended that program into August to include some 2006 model year vehicles. So GM will not have as good of a quarter bringing XM's OEM sales down a notch, and should boost Sirius's OEM sales a notch. I think it's way to early to predict a slow quarter for Sirius.
Manco is offline  
 
 
 

Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >


Digitalradiocentral.com




Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:06 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.39 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
All Content Copyright SIRIUS Backstage. All Rights Reserved. SIRIUS and registered trademarks are the property of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. The opinions posted on SIRIUS Backstage website and forums are those of the individual posters and/or this website and are not necessarily the opinions or positions of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc.