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Old 08-02-2005, 06:12 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AZJoe1

When I first got Sirius in May 2002, Sirius had 3% market share...now its 29%.
Some just still don't understand. That stat is really meaningless. When you start from nothing, there is nothing to do but GAIN marketshare.

Example:

XM Subs SIRI Subs SIRI Market share
100 1 1%
150 5 3.33%
200 10 5%
250 20 8%

Note: exaggerated for effect.
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Old 08-02-2005, 06:53 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StoliMike
Some just still don't understand. That stat is really meaningless. When you start from nothing, there is nothing to do but GAIN marketshare.

Example:

XM Subs SIRI Subs SIRI Market share
100 1 1%
150 5 3.33%
200 10 5%
250 20 8%

Note: exaggerated for effect.
Then let me enlighten you, StolenBike. The trend I see is that in the not-too-distant future, the market share split will be 50-50. That sounds meaningful to me. Allow me to extrapolate your data:

XM SIRI %
100 1 1%
150 5 3%
200 10 5%
250 20 7%
300 40 12%
350 80 19%
400 160 29%
450 320 42%
500 640 56%
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Old 08-02-2005, 07:18 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Casual Fan
Then let me enlighten you, StolenBike. The trend I see is that in the not-too-distant future, the market share split will be 50-50. That sounds meaningful to me. Allow me to extrapolate your data:
Well, if you see my note, it said that the numbers were exaggerated for effect. In fact, I even called it an "example."

Clearly, both Sirius and XM cannot double thier subsribers forever. We are going to be reaching some sort of saturation level as the total levels off a bit.
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Old 08-02-2005, 08:01 PM   #19
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Then let me enlighten you, StolenBike. The trend I see is that in the not-too-distant future, the market share split will be 50-50. That sounds meaningful to me. Allow me to extrapolate your data:



For that to happen Sirius actually has to add more subs than XM for a good period of time. Its not happening as of yet and XM's growth has been excellent thus far. It is also costing XM a lot less.

I wouldn't count on Stern making a huge impact and at the rate Sirius is borrowing money which is the bigger concern in my mind they'll have much more trouble reaching positive cash flows given the same sub numbers as XM.

I love Sirius but I can't say I really agree with all the coporate decisions they are making. They are certainly spending themselves into a pretty big hole and are still adding subs at a slower rate than XM.
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Old 08-02-2005, 08:26 PM   #20
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Then let me enlighten you, StolenBike. The trend I see is that in the not-too-distant future, the market share split will be 50-50. That sounds meaningful to me. Allow me to extrapolate your data:
This argument is just plain dumb.

XM is, on average, adding a quarter million more subs than Sirius every quarter (286,000 this quarter).

I can assure you that as long as this continues (and frankly, there is no indication that it may stop anytime soon) the market share split will never be 50/50.

The "percentage abuse" on these threads is rampant. There are lies, damned lies, and percentages.
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Old 08-03-2005, 04:50 PM   #21
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Sigh...

Ladies -

Just look at the subscriber trends - XM just had a head start, that's all. Sirius has been about a year behind XM in total subscribers each quarter. Sooner or later - and it may be a couple of years - Sirius is going to catch up.

You naysayers are just like those folks who thought Dish would always be dwarfed by DirecTV. How's that worked out for Dish?
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Old 08-03-2005, 06:26 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
Then let me enlighten you, StolenBike. The trend I see is that in the not-too-distant future, the market share split will be 50-50. That sounds meaningful to me. Allow me to extrapolate your data:
This argument is just plain dumb.

XM is, on average, adding a quarter million more subs than Sirius every quarter (286,000 this quarter).

I can assure you that as long as this continues (and frankly, there is no indication that it may stop anytime soon) the market share split will never be 50/50.

The "percentage abuse" on these threads is rampant. There are lies, damned lies, and percentages.
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Old 08-03-2005, 09:35 PM   #23
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Just look at the subscriber trends - XM just had a head start, that's all. Sirius has been about a year behind XM in total subscribers each quarter. Sooner or later - and it may be a couple of years - Sirius is going to catch up.
Why would you make an assumption like this? You list no basis whatsoever for doing so. I won't unless you want it, but I could list numerous problems that stand in the way of Sirius catching Xm, now or for any forseeable period of time.

Quote:
You naysayers are just like those folks who thought Dish would always be dwarfed by DirecTV. How's that worked out for Dish?
And that has exactly what to do with XM and SIRI?

Your argument might make sense if you could credibly claim, for example, that XM's management has been weaker than SIRI's. But XM's management has been remarkable at every turn, while SIRI's has made one big blooper after another. Perhaps Mel can turn it around -- but he is starting in a very deep hole.

This is the reason so many people joke about Sirius shareholders. It is as though they aren't even THINKING about the investment; they're just enamored with the concept.

The economic landscape is littered with the carcasses of great business ideas given over to failed managements.[/quote]
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Old 08-04-2005, 02:49 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
Just look at the subscriber trends - XM just had a head start, that's all. Sirius has been about a year behind XM in total subscribers each quarter. Sooner or later - and it may be a couple of years - Sirius is going to catch up.
Why would you make an assumption like this? You list no basis whatsoever for doing so. I won't unless you want it, but I could list numerous problems that stand in the way of Sirius catching Xm, now or for any forseeable period of time.

Quote:
You naysayers are just like those folks who thought Dish would always be dwarfed by DirecTV. How's that worked out for Dish?
And that has exactly what to do with XM and SIRI?

Your argument might make sense if you could credibly claim, for example, that XM's management has been weaker than SIRI's. But XM's management has been remarkable at every turn, while SIRI's has made one big blooper after another. Perhaps Mel can turn it around -- but he is starting in a very deep hole.

This is the reason so many people joke about Sirius shareholders. It is as though they aren't even THINKING about the investment; they're just enamored with the concept.

The economic landscape is littered with the carcasses of great business ideas given over to failed managements.
Sirius just raised 500M in unsecured notes. I won't try and argue the merits of this move, but what it shows is that there is some big money that believes in Sirius management or they wouldn't pony up that kind of money. I assume these are pretty investment savvy people too. So don't look for Sirius to be a carcass anytime soon.

According to surveys that Sirius quoted, they have a higher satisfaction rate with customers than XM. If they are doing such a bad job, don't you think the satisfaction would be lower?

Sirus won't bypass XM in total subscriber numbers unless and until they can match XM on the OEM install front. But in the 4th quarter of this year, I expect Sirius to beat XM in retail subs. Total subs will probably still edge towards XM, but it should be close. The 4th quarter should be over 1.5M subs between the two of them.
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Old 08-04-2005, 09:43 AM   #25
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Sirius just raised 500M in unsecured notes. I won't try and argue the merits of this move, but what it shows is that there is some big money that believes in Sirius management or they wouldn't pony up that kind of money. I assume these are pretty investment savvy people too. So don't look for Sirius to be a carcass anytime soon.
They are "unsecured", but they are also "senior" -- which means that in a liquidation they have a priority claim against ALL corporate assets. Still, I believe Mel did a great job getting this financing. It is clear he was able to sell someone on the concept. There are a lot of people out there who have access to a lot of money yet still don't understand what is happening with this business. Hell, look at Merrill's Mancini -- purportedly a professional analyst, yet apparently clueless.

Quote:
According to surveys that Sirius quoted, they have a higher satisfaction rate with customers than XM. If they are doing such a bad job, don't you think the satisfaction would be lower?
Well, I don't think they would have quoted one that said otherwise. But remember, they quoted a survey earlier in the year about brand recognition and it turned out to be from Marketstar, who was on their payroll. This is all just PR BS.

Quote:
Sirus won't bypass XM in total subscriber numbers unless and until they can match XM on the OEM install front. But in the 4th quarter of this year, I expect Sirius to beat XM in retail subs. Total subs will probably still edge towards XM, but it should be close. The 4th quarter should be over 1.5M subs between the two of them.
Sure, my view is that it is possible that Sirius will add more net subs in Q4 than XM. For a half billion dollars, they definitely OUGHT to. But it isn't as if they're going to suddenly be adding more subs than XM on a routine basis. And I'm not even convinced they'll catch Xm for that one quarter .... XM will add 1.6 mln subs in Q3/Q4 -- and that would put them in the area of a million in Q4. [/quote]
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Old 08-04-2005, 10:23 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed



Quote:
According to surveys that Sirius quoted, they have a higher satisfaction rate with customers than XM. If they are doing such a bad job, don't you think the satisfaction would be lower?
Well, I don't think they would have quoted one that said otherwise. But remember, they quoted a survey earlier in the year about brand recognition and it turned out to be from Marketstar, who was on their payroll. This is all just PR BS.
Its the same for XM and any other company that wants to find out what their customer satisfaction rate is. You hire a company to survey your customers, so yes, they have to be on your payroll, they certainly aren't going to do it for free!! PR BS? Right.......for everyone!! Get real!!
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Old 08-04-2005, 11:16 AM   #27
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Its the same for XM and any other company that wants to find out what their customer satisfaction rate is. You hire a company to survey your customers, so yes, they have to be on your payroll, they certainly aren't going to do it for free!! PR BS? Right.......for everyone!! Get real!!
Exactly. Both companies surely have surveys showing that THEIR CUSTOMERS are happier than the competition's. So, why was this issue even raised?

It is a meaningless diversion from the point of the discussion which had to do with the financial aspects of the business.
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Old 08-04-2005, 01:20 PM   #28
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I believe the point AZJoe1 was trying to make is that you use a comment such as you did about Sirius having a paid survey firm do some work, if I had just your statement to go by, FrontMed, I would be under the assumption that this was a bad thing and XM doesn't do the same. It okay to cheer for the service of your choice and have a strong opinion, but whenever you "attack" the other side, you must expect its defenders to take isssue. Your presentations are your opinions also, you offer your view of why Sirius is poorly run and the service sucks, so you can expect the same in return about XM and your comments about Sirius. No one person has the "all tell" insider information on both services, they can only offer what they know, believe and feel- and those are always up for debate and counterpoint. I for one am glad both services are available and growing rapidly.
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Old 08-04-2005, 11:29 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrontMed
Quote:
Its the same for XM and any other company that wants to find out what their customer satisfaction rate is. You hire a company to survey your customers, so yes, they have to be on your payroll, they certainly aren't going to do it for free!! PR BS? Right.......for everyone!! Get real!!
Exactly. Both companies surely have surveys showing that THEIR CUSTOMERS are happier than the competition's. So, why was this issue even raised?
They generally hire survey companies because they want to know the truth, so they know where to focus there resources in improving customer satisfaction. If the result is that they have a higher satisfaction than the competitor, then that's a good thing. XM surely runs surveys too, and if they haven't reported the results, it's likely because they aren't on top in customer satisfaction.
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Old 08-04-2005, 11:45 PM   #30
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XM surely runs surveys too, and if they haven't reported the results, it's likely because they aren't on top in customer satisfaction.
You seem to have this figured out.

How, exactly, does one determine which of these two companies is "on top" in customer satisfaction?

Do you think they're surveying the tiny fraction of maybe 1% who have tried both services?
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