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Old 08-18-2005, 02:40 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnesia
I wonder if the NFL a/o Stern could be causing people to delay purchasing Sirius...

That is, they have already made up their mind to buy Sirius, but are waiting for either football season to start or for Stern to arrive at the beginning of the year in order to save a couple of months of subscription fees...
interesting theory. i'm attributing the drop in price over the last couple days to the lack of announcement re: hitting 2 million subs.
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Old 08-18-2005, 05:17 PM   #32
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I think what amnesia was referring to was the delay of people purchasing sirius subscriptions, not stock.

Amnesia, I think you could have a point, but I would disagree. People in the second quarter signed up for Sirius with an even longer delay for the 2 events that you mentioned, Stern and NFL. If anything, with those 2 events closer, I would think that people would be signing up faster.

We need to hear 2 million subs very soon. They signed up on average 4000 net subs per day in Q2, and I would expect the same pace, if not faster in Q3.
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Old 08-18-2005, 05:24 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
Amnesia, I think you could have a point, but I would disagree. People in the second quarter signed up for Sirius with an even longer delay for the 2 events that you mentioned, Stern and NFL. If anything, with those 2 events closer, I would think that people would be signing up faster.
It doesn't always work that way. Sometimes the closer an event is, the higher the likelihood that you're willing to wait.

For example, let's say that your Sirius receiver was acting up and you were thinking about getting a new one.

Case A: You know that Sirius will be releasing a new radio in a month. You can either buy a new one now or wait a month. You might decide to wait in order to get the new features.

Case B: You know that Sirius will be releasing a new radio next June. You can either buy a new one now or wait 10 months. You might decide that the wait's too long and just buy one now.
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Old 08-18-2005, 08:43 PM   #34
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IMHO, 2 million is not that big of a deal, especially when compared to X-Brand, which is probably closer to 5 million. Unlike all of the doom & gloomers, etc., that say, "if they don't announce soon" there will be a decline in SIRI's PPS. Keyword: if. Who cares, it's to early in the game to be worried about such a minute event. Besides:

***A dip in PPS presents a buying opportunity.***

In the past SIRI would announce any & everything, sometimes months/years before it was/is available; now with Mel at the helm things are quite the contrary, with the exception of the Richard Simmons announcement.

I applaud Mel for keeping tight-lipped...it builds excitement of things yet to come. Plus it leaves little chance for X-Brand to copy (Disclaimer: I'm not saying that they are copycats).

There should've been a poll for this, nonetheless I vote for Q3.

CT
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Old 08-19-2005, 05:03 AM   #35
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Amnesia, your point is well taken, but I still disagree. You are talking about upgrading a receiver, not merely becoming a new subscriber. For the vast majority of people out there, they do not know that Sirius will be releasing new products in the fall. All they kow is that Sirius will be having the NFL and soon Howard Stern. All they are thinking is I need to get Sirius.

But getting back to my original point, I do not think that is the case anyway. Sirius added 4000 per day in Q2, and I hope they are maintaining and increasing that pace in Q3.
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Old 08-19-2005, 02:20 PM   #36
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Default 2 million WHEN?

I want another subscription but I am waiting for the 3G units.Maybe thats another factor.
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Old 08-19-2005, 03:08 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
You are talking about upgrading a receiver, not merely becoming a new subscriber. For the vast majority of people out there, they do not know that Sirius will be releasing new products in the fall.
Ummm...that was just an analogy.
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Old 08-19-2005, 03:56 PM   #38
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Make that analogy into what you are talking about then....

This is how I see it....

On May 15, 2005 a customer is deciding whether or not to purchase Sirius. He thinks Howard Stern is coming, the NFL, and all the other choices that they offer. Ok, lets subscribe even though the NFL is still 4 months away, and Howard is basically 7 months away.

Take the same customer.....

On August 15, 2005 a customer is deciding whether or not to purchase Sirius. He thinks Howard Stern is coming, the NFL, and all the other choices that they offer. OK, no need to subscribe now, lets wait for NFl to start in ONE MONTH instead of FOUR, or lets wait basically 4 more months for Howard instead of 7.

This type of thinking I can not understand at all. Why would someone delay their purchase closer to the reason that they might want to subscribe??? Instead, you think that they decided to subscribe earlier rather than later????
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Old 08-26-2005, 11:47 AM   #39
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I don't think that the average consumer is considering which gen receiver they are getting. I think that the NFL is not a huge draw for radio. so that is not causing people to wait. I do think that Stern fans are waiting until the end of the year. They are getting him for free, so why not wait it out? OF course, they are missing all the other programming on Sirius in the meantime!
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Old 08-26-2005, 10:46 PM   #40
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In my opinion, Sirius has reached and passed 2 million subs without an announcement. This is strictly my opinion, and is not based on any facts. However, if you look at the numbers, it would be hard to believe that they have not reached that number.

Last quarter they signed up 365,000+ subs . That is on average 4000 per day. Each quarter they have signed up more and more per day. What would make you think anything different from this quarter? Keeping with the 4000 per day pace, as of today Sirius would have roughly 2,038,000 total subs.
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Old 08-27-2005, 02:05 PM   #41
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I still stand by my 8/31 2M announcement. I suspect sales are a bit slower this quarter because the $50 rebate was on last quarter and it was Fathers day and the beginning of summer, two big events that would help demand.
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Old 08-27-2005, 08:48 PM   #42
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i was way off. i think i remember from the conference call that sirius is holding an analyst meeting on the 29 th of august. i think we should hear next week.
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Old 08-28-2005, 12:31 PM   #43
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Manco, your point is well taken about fathers day and slower sub sign ups. However, I went back to last year.

In Q2 of 2004, Sirius started with 351,663 subs and ended with 480,341 which represents a 37% increase for the quarter. In Q3 of 2004, they started with the 480,341 and ended with 662,289 which represents a 38% increase. Two things that are important to note....1) I have no information in regards to rebates being offered at any point during those 2 quarters.... 2) There was no Howard Stern effect since he did not announce until like October 6th.

So, in conclusion, Sirius experienced slightly better growth in Q3 of 2004 than they did in Q2 2004 even with fathers day and graduations. Should we expect the same thing for 2005? If that is the case, we should be signing up more subs per day in the previous quarter which was 4,000, and have surpassed the 2 million mark.
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Old 08-29-2005, 01:02 PM   #44
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I detect something has changed at Sirius where news is held tighter to the vest. I'm not sure if this is a case where they are waiting for a good moment to announce it or not, but certainly this would be a good week to do it following up the holiday preview news.
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Old 08-29-2005, 04:02 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BAMA
i think i remember from the conference call that sirius is holding an analyst meeting on the 29 th of august.
Any news from this?
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