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Old 09-19-2005, 06:54 PM   #16
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One of the reasons they probably decided to release the sub numbers is that expectations were getting too high for the 3 quarter. Most seem to forget that OEMs have producttion shutdowns in July and that retail in July is usually very soft. Sirius had an especially great June and ended to the rebate program July 1, which didn't get started until something like Aug 7, and then was only $30, compared with the $50 rebate that ran in May and June (which contained a Father's day boast).

Last year XM reported lower numbers for the 3rd than the 2nd qtr. Sirius was up, but they introduced the Sportster in early Sept which was an immediate hit.

Just like the June run rate was way above April and May, expect the Sept run rate to be way above July and August (and the average through Sept 15). Refer to the NPD retail data that Stifel reports to get a better idea of the monthly swings.


Expect XM to be down for the 3rd q (compared to 2nd) as well. GM hasn't sold any where close to what it did in June and the Roady2 giveway ended in early July.

3rd q is just not a great qtr. Doesn't mean anything in predicting the 4th q.


To hit 3 million, Sirius will need about 870,000 subs in the 4th qtr. Thats about 490,000 more than last year. But Ford is ramping up and Stern is coming -- there must be at least 400,000 subs from Stern in the 4th?

All that plus the general growth in Sirius satellite radio awareness, lower hardware price points, etc., 3 million plus should not be a problem.
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Old 09-19-2005, 07:10 PM   #17
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Manco - If XM has a flat quarter, then yes, I will say it is dismal. Neither company should have a flat quarter -- they should be increasing subs each quarter. I don't recall what XM's last quarter numbers were, but they are supposed to announce 5 MM this week (according to the other fan site).

I think Sirius will have a great 4th ONLY because of Stern. To me, that is a bit sad. Sirius has a wealth of programming that just isn't catching on the way I had hoped. It will be interesting to see if XM comes out with any hardware for the XMAS season that could get them a lot of subs.
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Old 09-19-2005, 07:13 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
My question is why did they announce that they expect full year earnings to be 5 million dollars more almost at the end of the quarter? Wasn't this something that could have waited until the Q3 conf call? In doing so, they released their current sub numbers, which could have waited also. Seems a bit strange to me..... The sub numbers are definitely lower than what I was expecting.... We are on pace to hit 2.12 million by the end of the quarter. I was definitely expecting more int he area of 2.17-2.25 million.
Everybody wants to know the reasoning behind the announcement. Not like Mel to do that... Preparing for a shltty quarter, or making us think it will be shitty and surprising us with #s better than what everyone thinks (2.12)??? I am expecting about 2.2 million, which would bring the sub addition to numbers a bit better than last quarter... We still may have more subs than 2.12, I think there are more buyers in September than the previous 2 months. We'll see, either way I see SIRI up after 3qtr release on Stern speculation...
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Old 09-19-2005, 08:20 PM   #19
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for such a small change in the revenue projections, its rather odd that they would file this announcement---hmmmm
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Old 09-19-2005, 11:47 PM   #20
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I am a long term investor in Sirius, almost 4 years now, and I own many shares and options.... I believe highly in the growth of Sirius, however, the last week has made me a bit cautious on Sirius in the short term (1-2 months). With Apollo selling 40 million shares, roughly 25% of their holdings, and now this strange, untimely announcement of revenue guidance up but somewhat slow net adds, I am starting to see the caution flag. I will definitely not be selling right now, and even though the shares have declined about 9% in 2 days, I am not quite bargain shopping yet. I want to see what happens in the weeks to come first.
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:32 AM   #21
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As I sit here digesting this announcement more and more, and start to analyze these sub numbers even further, I become more and more disappointed. We are only on pace to add roughly 3450 subs per day compared to the Q2 numbers of 4000 per day. Why the slow up in subs??? Last year from Q2 to Q3, Sirius saw a ramp up in subs, not a slow down.

There is still little doubt in my mind that Sirius will be able to surpass 3 million by years end, and I am expecting to see 3.5 million by end of January 2006 and very close to 3.8 million by end of Q1 2006.

Sirius has come a long way since last year, practically doubling their subscriber base in 9 months. Here's to doubling their subscriber base in the next 9 months!!!!!
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Old 09-20-2005, 08:43 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
Sirius has come a long way since last year, practically doubling their subscriber base in 9 months. Here's to doubling their subscriber base in the next 9 months!!!!!
I think they will do that in less than 6 months.
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