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Old 09-19-2005, 08:22 AM   #1
garypl
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Default Today (Monday) filing states subs at nearly 2.1 Miliion!

see news from sirius--As of sept. 15th, subs at 2.08 officially
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Old 09-19-2005, 08:48 AM   #2
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The company said it still expects to have 3 million subscribers by year-end, up from nearly 2.1 million subscribers as of Sept. 15.
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Old 09-19-2005, 09:43 AM   #3
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2.07 as of Sept. 15th.

That means we have 3.5 months to gain over 900,000 subs, if we are to hit the 3 million mark by year end.

I havent been paying much attention, at what monthly rate are we currently acquiring subs?
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Old 09-19-2005, 09:44 AM   #4
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i really wonder how much of the Stern effect will happen--i know he will have an impact--The debate on Wall Street is if it is a good effect or a INCREDIBLE addition of subs--There better be more new products coming out VERY soon for the holidays as well as many of them volume wise to have a potential home run--Does anyone know if the 2 new channels that are going on around sep. 29th having Stern material without him or his taped messages etc.?
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Old 09-19-2005, 10:05 AM   #5
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Today (Monday) filing states subs at nearly 2.1 Miliion!
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trezdustrial
2.07 as of Sept. 15th.

That means we have 3.5 months to gain over 900,000 subs, if we are to hit the 3 million mark by year end.

I havent been paying much attention, at what monthly rate are we currently acquiring subs?
The last 2 quarters including this one is looking like just over 100k per month. But that has little meaning for the 4th quarter which would be much higher even without Stern. 4th quarter of last year was over 600k, but forget the exact number. I don't think they will have any problem getting 900k this time around since they are building off of a much larger base, and you have the Stern move happening in early january. Many stern fans will join us in the following 2 quarters.
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Old 09-19-2005, 10:11 AM   #6
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It looks like a dismal quarter for Sirius. Not sure why, but it's not good news. I hate to think that Stern is the subscriber saviour -- does the other programming just not mean much?
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Old 09-19-2005, 10:22 AM   #7
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Yeah it is not looking too good for the big dog. Not what I like to see but oh well hopefully q4 will suprise people.
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Old 09-19-2005, 10:30 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SatRadioRules
It looks like a dismal quarter for Sirius. Not sure why, but it's not good news. I hate to think that Stern is the subscriber saviour -- does the other programming just not mean much?
Will you say the same thing about XM if they have flat quarter to quarter numbers? Do you expect XM to have more than last quarter? If not, then you should also say that it's a dismal quarter for XM

This is a decent showing, and is actually better than I expected. Simply because 2nd and 3rd quarters are typically flat. Sirius is on track to hit the subscriber number of 3M at end of year. Did you somehow expect them to do even better than 3M which is more than double what they had last year? I would say anytime you can double in a year, that's a good year.

Stern isn't a savior, but he will pull in enough subs to more than pay for himself. Sirius will beat XM in subs for the first time in the 4th quarter, and probably the 1st quarter of next year. Mostly on retail sales.
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Old 09-19-2005, 10:45 AM   #9
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Do you guys think that the ever increasing ramp up of sirius OEM partners will have a good impact on the 3rd quarter/4th---Plus as an added bonus, Ford and Chysler joined GM in giving the employee pricing---then they both extended it--I hear their numbers have increased substancially due to the promotion--could this increase the numbers even more, if just temporary?
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Old 09-19-2005, 04:01 PM   #10
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I was also expecting more by now also. But, I don't think the future is at all grim because many of us thought we'd have 100K more than this.

If we added 600k last year in the 4Q you can expect to have a higher number this year, especially since Bridge is saying they expect that 500K stern fans will move to Sirius in the 4Q. Add that to higher product recognition and I can easilty see us going OVER 3M (not to mention a great 1Q 06). There will always be the pessimists though that don't think what I think, and they can go screw themselves .
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Old 09-19-2005, 04:10 PM   #11
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the market absolutely hated the announcement today.

it's pretty frustrating.
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Old 09-19-2005, 04:56 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manco
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trezdustrial
2.07 as of Sept. 15th.

That means we have 3.5 months to gain over 900,000 subs, if we are to hit the 3 million mark by year end.

I havent been paying much attention, at what monthly rate are we currently acquiring subs?
The last 2 quarters including this one is looking like just over 100k per month. But that has little meaning for the 4th quarter which would be much higher even without Stern. 4th quarter of last year was over 600k, but forget the exact number. I don't think they will have any problem getting 900k this time around since they are building off of a much larger base, and you have the Stern move happening in early january. Many stern fans will join us in the following 2 quarters.
Actually, last year during the 4th quarter we had 480,969 net additions.

I think 3 million subs will not be a problem come this 4th quarter. SIRI is more popular now, has a bigger base, has nice, appealing recievers coming out in October. Stern is coming in Jan, Martha is getting on this fall, other big channels coming like Cosmopolitan... I think Stern will have a bigger effect than what everyone is predicting... We'll see...
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Old 09-19-2005, 05:01 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manco
Quote:
Originally Posted by SatRadioRules
It looks like a dismal quarter for Sirius. Not sure why, but it's not good news. I hate to think that Stern is the subscriber saviour -- does the other programming just not mean much?
Will you say the same thing about XM if they have flat quarter to quarter numbers? Do you expect XM to have more than last quarter? If not, then you should also say that it's a dismal quarter for XM

This is a decent showing, and is actually better than I expected. Simply because 2nd and 3rd quarters are typically flat. Sirius is on track to hit the subscriber number of 3M at end of year. Did you somehow expect them to do even better than 3M which is more than double what they had last year? I would say anytime you can double in a year, that's a good year.

Stern isn't a savior, but he will pull in enough subs to more than pay for himself. Sirius will beat XM in subs for the first time in the 4th quarter, and probably the 1st quarter of next year. Mostly on retail sales.
I agree... I'm guessing XM will not beat its previous quarter sub additions, which will send both stocks even lower. After earnings however, I think we're gonna see some new highs during the holiday season.
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Old 09-19-2005, 05:03 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satradfan
the market absolutely hated the announcement today.

it's pretty frustrating.
Tell me about it, I was expecting subs to be a little higher. 6.66 right now, lol.
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Old 09-19-2005, 06:13 PM   #15
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My question is why did they announce that they expect full year earnings to be 5 million dollars more almost at the end of the quarter? Wasn't this something that could have waited until the Q3 conf call? In doing so, they released their current sub numbers, which could have waited also. Seems a bit strange to me..... The sub numbers are definitely lower than what I was expecting.... We are on pace to hit 2.12 million by the end of the quarter. I was definitely expecting more int he area of 2.17-2.25 million.
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