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Old 10-22-2005, 05:20 AM   #1
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Default Sirius sees big bounce after Stern deal

Original article here.



LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - The whopping $500 million Sirius Satellite Radio is paying Howard Stern to join the No. 2 celestial radio service might be starting to pay off.

According to data from NPD Group, Sirius has been taking away retail-level market share from XM Satellite Radio for three consecutive months, and analysts primarily give credit to Stern.

NPD said that in September, Sirius captured 56 percent of the satellite radio sales, the best it has done since launching its service in July 2002. That's an improvement over 47 percent in August and 40 percent in July.

While CEO Mel Karmazin said the improved sales can be attributed to Martha Stewart joining Sirius and the start of the NFL season as well as the impending arrival of Stern, analysts focused mostly on the latter.


"We have consistently indicated that the arrival of Howard Stern would be a major catalyst," Merrill Lynch analysts wrote after the NPD data was made public this week.


Taking the lead in retail was "not a surprise," the analysts said. "We expect Sirius' lead in retail sales will continue throughout (the year) and early 2006, largely driven by the addition of Howard Stern fans."


Analysts at Sanford Bernstein noted that Sirius' share of retail has risen from 11 percent in 2002 to 44 percent last year and 48 percent in the first half of this year.


Retail sales do not include radios sold already installed in cars -- original equipment manufacturers -- where XM maintains a healthy lead, having launched its service 10 months earlier than Sirius.


Sirius said that it sold 82,000 units at retail last month, a 52 percent surge over August and a 93 percent increase from September 2004.


"Since Sirius has a slight disadvantage to XM in the OEM channel, retail channel must be the greater driver for share gains for Sirius," the Sanford Bernstein analysts said.


Observers estimate that retail sales are amounting to about 65 percent of Sirius sales, while they are representing about 50 percent at XM.


On Thursday, XM said that it will give a free satellite radio to everyone attending Game 1 of the World Series on Saturday in Chicago, while Sirius said that it hired a new senior vp marketing.
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Old 10-23-2005, 01:05 AM   #2
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The nice thing is to see that this is simply based on the retail sales and not OEM sales as well. It just shows that Sirius is starting to become the more popular choice for buyers
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Old 10-23-2005, 10:48 AM   #3
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see things like that make me wonder. is XM really a good buy at this price. if things like that are being said wouldnt XM start to drop a lot more instead of staying at the 30s?
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Old 10-23-2005, 10:18 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Siri_Satellite05
see things like that make me wonder. is XM really a good buy at this price. if things like that are being said wouldnt XM start to drop a lot more instead of staying at the 30s?
Well, that's because things are not that bad for XM, I don't think. I am still not sold on the NPD data. I think it does show trends maybe and probably does indicate that Sirius is making enroads. But it doesn't count sales from certain stores and there are other things about it I don't really like.

I believe Sirius got around 46% of retail sub adds in Q2, which is very good. I think the Stern effect will surely change things a bit. I'm just saying I would wait to see the actual sub numbers.
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Old 10-24-2005, 02:44 PM   #5
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Default Bounce!

As reported by The Washington Post, Stern’s audience share in Washington, D.C., where he is broadcast on WJFK-FM, fell by nearly one-third ...

New York down as well.. :\
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:59 AM   #6
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Now this following report is funny.

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/200..._new/index.php
Quote:
XM, Sirius Bicker over New Subscriber Numbers

A recent report from The NPD Group said that Sirius had captured 56 percent of satellite retail sales in September, but XM Satellite Radio is actually still the market lead, holding a 59 percent market share in the third quarter, reports Mediaweek. The NPD Group's numbers were apparently based on the sales receipts from a subset of retail outlets, excluding many of the places where satellite radio is sold.

XM based its figures on the acquisition of 305,284 net retail subscribers in the third quarter, compared to the 209,920 announced by Sirius on Tuesday. XM is also pointing out that XM is adding subscribers at the acquisition cost of $89, while Sirius's acquisition cost is $149.

Sirius was taken to task earlier this month when The Street.com pointed out that Sirius's reported new subscriber figures for the third quarter could be the result of "liberal math."
Now, how much do you want to bet that XM has been using NPD Group's data to "prove" that they're #1 for the past several years? And remember that the video game industry swears by the NPD Group.

But regardless, we'll probably start seeing better Sirius displays in Best Buy & Walmart because of this study. To these retailers, NPD Group is equal to the Word of God.
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Old 11-14-2005, 11:17 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpolio
Now this following report is funny.
What's so funny? Sirius's own numbers say they got 209,920 retail subs in Q3. XM's says they got 305,284. 305,284/(209,290 + 305,284) = 59.255%

Is it any wonder that XM disputed NPD's claim that Sirius got 56% of the retail market?
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Old 11-14-2005, 11:33 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnesia
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpolio
Now this following report is funny.
What's so funny? Sirius's own numbers say they got 209,920 retail subs in Q3. XM's says they got 305,284. 305,284/(209,290 + 305,284) = 59.255%

Is it any wonder that XM disputed NPD's claim that Sirius got 56% of the retail market?
What's funny is that XM is trying to discredit NPD Groups data. That is the de facto standard in the retail industry, so I'm 100% positive that they've used it in the past. And besides, financial annalists won't care what XM's or Sirius's own data says, they'll go with NPD Groups results.
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Old 11-14-2005, 12:00 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpolio
And besides, financial annalists won't care what XM's or Sirius's own data says, they'll go with NPD Groups results.
I certainly hope that analysts will go with the companies own data! If they don't believe the retail sub numbers, what will they believe?
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Old 11-14-2005, 12:40 PM   #10
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What ever the numbers , I have noticed that the sirius radios are starting to disappear from stores shelves where I live.
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:15 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnesia
I certainly hope that analysts will go with the companies own data! If they don't believe the retail sub numbers, what will they believe?
I doubt that will happen. The companies own data could be subjected to tampering (Enron anyone?). But the sale data from an independent 3rd party would be free from any bias. That's why NDP Group exists. It's an unbiased source of information.

And also, is XM comparing their internal sales data to Sirius' internal sales data or NPD's numbers for Sirius? I've seen similar stuff from the video game industry. Usually they'll quote shipping numbers. Or they'll include exchanges on defective units instead of just counting sales receipts. NPD only counts sales receipts. There's a lot of factors involved which is why the analysts prefer to use the data from an independent source.

I don't necessarily agree with their numbers since they can't tally every sale in the world, but it seems to be the only fair way to do it. And their data is a lot closer to the real figures than the Nielsen Media Research methods or a random poll.
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Old 11-14-2005, 09:23 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpolio
And also, is XM comparing their internal sales data to Sirius' internal sales data or NPD's numbers for Sirius
Comparing each company's SEC-reported numbers.
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Old 11-15-2005, 02:38 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnesia
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpolio
And also, is XM comparing their internal sales data to Sirius' internal sales data or NPD's numbers for Sirius
Comparing each company's SEC-reported numbers.
Found it. Too bad that the report doesn't break it down by month.
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Old 11-15-2005, 03:03 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knac's-pirate
What ever the numbers , I have noticed that the sirius radios are starting to disappear from stores shelves where I live.
Yeah, I've noticed that too. I had to go to 2 Walmarts before I could find my Xact Visor. And the next day, that Walmart was sold out. The clerk said that the he can't keep the Visor on the shelf -- as soon as they come in, they're gone. And they keep a supply in both electronics and automotive. Delphi has dropped the price of the Roady2 down to $28 in Walmart to try to compete with the Visor, but I've never seen them low on stock. Everyone wants that Visor -- I guess for either the NFL or Stern.

Sirius' sales have probably shot though the roof in October because of this unit.
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Old 11-17-2005, 02:34 PM   #15
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Everybody will be pleasantly surprised with the next sub number announcement. I think 10 bucks by years end is quite possible
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