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Old 11-01-2006, 06:17 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
I think the writer was being realistic. I've said this a million times here, we have to look past this sub count war both companies have gotten into. Financially Sirius is NOT in good shape. Even if they make their 6.3 million target they still have a bunch of other problems. Unless they do some very creative book keeping there's no way they will be cash flow positive by years end. They are a billion $'s in debt, both companies saw a drop in year to year total sub growth, competition from Ipods, MP3 players, etc, is only going to get worse. Near term things are not rosy. I'm sure Wall Street knows this so don't blame SIRI $3-4 price all on XM.
------

I'm sorry to be a posting hog, but I'm enjoying this intelligent exchange.

Ya know, there is much talk about the shitty financial shape of SIRI and XMSR which strikes a chord of sanity to the heart, but maybe not the mind.

I know plenty of people who make 50-70K annually and have a 175-250K mortgage and I'll bet you do too. In many cases this debt to equity would be considered understated.

Now comes lowly XMSR who has recently crossed the 1.0 billion dollar sales marker that Sirius will cross in the coming year.

I think ( and underscore think because I'm too lazy to look it up in the filings ) that XM owes the world about 1.3 billion bucks while Sirius is about 1.1 billion in debt. from memory.

So why does a 1.0-1.3 debt ratio for a business look scary when a 3.0-4.0-5.0 ratio is acceptable for the home owner ?

Further, SATRAD's income should be growing at a much faster rate ( as compared to debt ) than a home owners.
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Old 11-01-2006, 07:40 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
------

I'm sorry to be a posting hog, but I'm enjoying this intelligent exchange.

Ya know, there is much talk about the shitty financial shape of SIRI and XMSR which strikes a chord of sanity to the heart, but maybe not the mind.

I know plenty of people who make 50-70K annually and have a 175-250K mortgage and I'll bet you do too. In many cases this debt to equity would be considered understated.

Now comes lowly XMSR who has recently crossed the 1.0 billion dollar sales marker that Sirius will cross in the coming year.

I think ( and underscore think because I'm too lazy to look it up in the filings ) that XM owes the world about 1.3 billion bucks while Sirius is about 1.1 billion in debt. from memory.

So why does a 1.0-1.3 debt ratio for a business look scary when a 3.0-4.0-5.0 ratio is acceptable for the home owner ?

Further, SATRAD's income should be growing at a much faster rate ( as compared to debt ) than a home owners.
Debt, especially in business isn't a bad thing. BUT XM started in 2001, Sirius in 2002. Both were suppose to be at their break even points around 2004/2005. Then those dates were pushed back until 2006/2007. Now I'm reading 2008 to 2010.. Add that to the fact that these new businesses debt keeps growing, not shrinking and you have nervous investors and creditors. These companies are not the government, they can't continue to operate in the red. Eventually they have to show a profit and reduce their debt, not eliminate it, but reduce it.
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Old 11-01-2006, 08:37 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Debt, especially in business isn't a bad thing. BUT XM started in 2001, Sirius in 2002. Both were suppose to be at their break even points around 2004/2005. Then those dates were pushed back until 2006/2007. Now I'm reading 2008 to 2010.. Add that to the fact that these new businesses debt keeps growing, not shrinking and you have nervous investors and creditors. These companies are not the government, they can't continue to operate in the red. Eventually they have to show a profit and reduce their debt, not eliminate it, but reduce it.
I think you are spot on. The losses per quarter have NOT being going down. There was this talk about how much money the satrad model throws to the bottom line. It hasn't as you've pointed out.

This failure to reduce or stabilize quarterly losses in conjunction with a slower rate of growth, ( for xm due to churn ) has just nailed these investments to the cross.

I hope the hell they merge. I hate to say anyhting positive about Cramer, but i think he's right that these stocks will do nothing for 2-3 years without one.
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Old 11-02-2006, 03:19 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
I think you are spot on. The losses per quarter have NOT being going down. There was this talk about how much money the satrad model throws to the bottom line. It hasn't as you've pointed out.

This failure to reduce or stabilize quarterly losses in conjunction with a slower rate of growth, ( for xm due to churn ) has just nailed these investments to the cross.

I hope the hell they merge. I hate to say anyhting positive about Cramer, but i think he's right that these stocks will do nothing for 2-3 years without one.
Cramer's an ass.

I look at it this way. Both companies better have one hell of a good 4th quarter. And not just in adding subs, which I think in THIS 4th quarter is more important then other quarters just for the sake of gaining some momentum. But besides sub counts they need to show some serious cost cutting, and show at least SOME trend toward reversing the red ink.

If it's a so,so quarter or another bad quarter for their bottom lines I think we will see a major change in satrad in the next 8-16 months. One or both will fold, or be bought out by CBS or Dish ,etc., or merge.

Yes more doom and gloom on my part. I hope I'm wrong, but the way these 2 companies have run their businesses the last couple of years reminds me of the dot com companies in the late 90's. And look at what happened to 98% of them.
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Old 11-02-2006, 07:27 AM   #20
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I was accused of gloom and doom in March which turned out to be very accurate. I don't think you're incorrect at all. I don't see even the smallest uptick on fundamentals until mid-late 2007 with the exception of the usual pop from Q4.

Expect Q3 to be nasty for both, but especially XM.

I don't see this business model working with two compaines at all. It's like selling $1.00 bills for .85 and expecting to break even.
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Old 11-02-2006, 07:41 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
------

I'm sorry to be a posting hog, but I'm enjoying this intelligent exchange.

Ya know, there is much talk about the shitty financial shape of SIRI and XMSR which strikes a chord of sanity to the heart, but maybe not the mind.

I know plenty of people who make 50-70K annually and have a 175-250K mortgage and I'll bet you do too. In many cases this debt to equity would be considered understated.

Now comes lowly XMSR who has recently crossed the 1.0 billion dollar sales marker that Sirius will cross in the coming year.

I think ( and underscore think because I'm too lazy to look it up in the filings ) that XM owes the world about 1.3 billion bucks while Sirius is about 1.1 billion in debt. from memory.

So why does a 1.0-1.3 debt ratio for a business look scary when a 3.0-4.0-5.0 ratio is acceptable for the home owner ?

Further, SATRAD's income should be growing at a much faster rate ( as compared to debt ) than a home owners.
Most folks that make $50-70k annually keep at least SOME of it and apply it towards that debt you mention.

XM/Sirius are making NO profit. They NEVER have. ALL of that money you mention coming in goes out on current expenses, and then even more that they don't have. Chances are, they'll never grow to the level they need to become profitable because of the new technologies on the horizon. That's why XM and Sirius spell danger.

If XM/Sirius get bought out by a larger company at low levels, stockholders have major potential of being screwed. If you bought at $6/share, do you want to be forced to sell at $2/share because the board voted its best for the company? Someone mentioned those 90's Internet companies. This is what happened to a lot of them.

Imagine how easy it would be to get customers for your business if you could throw billions of dollars at it and just lose money. Anyone could create a business model like that.

Last edited by BigRadioFan; 11-02-2006 at 07:44 AM..
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Old 11-02-2006, 07:54 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
I was accused of gloom and doom in March which turned out to be very accurate. I don't think you're incorrect at all. I don't see even the smallest uptick on fundamentals until mid-late 2007 with the exception of the usual pop from Q4.

Expect Q3 to be nasty for both, but especially XM.

I don't see this business model working with two compaines at all. It's like selling $1.00 bills for .85 and expecting to break even.

Yep, elementary business. If it cost you $50 to make a product you better not sell that product for $30 for very long. Obviously at first XM and Sirius had to do just that, but it's been going on for too long now and there's no end in sight.
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Old 11-02-2006, 11:48 AM   #23
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Quote:
Yep, elementary business. If it cost you $50 to make a product you better not sell that product for $30 for very long. Obviously at first XM and Sirius had to do just that, but it's been going on for too long now and there's no end in sight.
It is disappointing that siri hasnt gotten the cost to add new subs down to a lower level. smxr is spending maybe half what it cost siri to add one and this is dropping to siris bottom line the 1st 18 months of income for a siri sub gos to cover the cost to get the sub even before they pay for other stuff.
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Old 11-08-2006, 08:43 AM   #24
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[QUOTE=Whiskerbiscuit]I've read some total crap over the years. This young man is either that ( a young inexperienced ) or badly underinformed or an attention whore. This one smells so badly even XM411 is howling.

Nice job Frank. Don't forget to take a box to work Friday.

Search Sirius Reservations or Yahoo business under SIRI for complete malarky.

---------------------------------------------------------------------


Sirius Reservations
By Frank Curzio
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/31/2006 11:08 AM EST

Editor's note: This Stocks Under $10 alert was originally sent to subscribers Oct. 30 at 1:34 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com readers. Frank Curzio heads TheStreet.com Stocks Under $10 Investment Team.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It seems like just yesterday that Howard Stern announced he was leaving terrestrial radio to begin broadcasting his show on commercial-free Sirius Satellite (SIRI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Sirius shares traded up to $8 in December 2005 on the news, but then quickly began a downward trend to their current level around $3.79. But even at this price, are shares worth buying?

At the current price Sirius still has a market capitalization of $5.4 billion, so don't let the low price of the shares fool you. Sirius is still a big company and has one of the largest market caps of stocks in the under $10 universe. Also, the company's debt is more than $1 billion, and analysts do not expect Sirius to make a profit until after 2008.

Over the past few months, Wall Street's main concern has focused on Sirius' subscriber growth. Last year, the company said it expected to have 6.3 million total subscribers by the end of 2006, but given its second- and third-quarter net new subscriber additions, we believe this number may be too optimistic. Shareholders seem to agree, as the stock is trading near its 52-week low.

In August, Sirius announced it had added 600,460 net new subscribers in the second quarter, and in October the company reported 441,000 for the third quarter. Those additions give Sirius 5.1 million total subscribers -- or 1.2 million subscribers short of the 6.3 million forecast. Considering the average number of net additions in the previous two quarters, we believe it will be very difficult for Sirius to pull in as many as 1.2 million net new subscribers -- albeit during the holiday season -- in just three months.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Frank.... Just got the Sirius Q3 poop.... You're a fricking genius. Please write more about Sirius's demise.


--------------------------------------------------------------
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