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Old 10-31-2006, 04:21 PM   #1
Whiskerbiscuit
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Default Curzio misguided at best.

I've read some total crap over the years. This young man is either that ( a young inexperienced ) or badly underinformed or an attention whore. This one smells so badly even XM411 is howling.

Nice job Frank. Don't forget to take a box to work Friday.

Search Sirius Reservations or Yahoo business under SIRI for complete malarky.

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Sirius Reservations
By Frank Curzio
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/31/2006 11:08 AM EST

Editor's note: This Stocks Under $10 alert was originally sent to subscribers Oct. 30 at 1:34 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com readers. Frank Curzio heads TheStreet.com Stocks Under $10 Investment Team.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It seems like just yesterday that Howard Stern announced he was leaving terrestrial radio to begin broadcasting his show on commercial-free Sirius Satellite (SIRI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). Sirius shares traded up to $8 in December 2005 on the news, but then quickly began a downward trend to their current level around $3.79. But even at this price, are shares worth buying?

At the current price Sirius still has a market capitalization of $5.4 billion, so don't let the low price of the shares fool you. Sirius is still a big company and has one of the largest market caps of stocks in the under $10 universe. Also, the company's debt is more than $1 billion, and analysts do not expect Sirius to make a profit until after 2008.

Over the past few months, Wall Street's main concern has focused on Sirius' subscriber growth. Last year, the company said it expected to have 6.3 million total subscribers by the end of 2006, but given its second- and third-quarter net new subscriber additions, we believe this number may be too optimistic. Shareholders seem to agree, as the stock is trading near its 52-week low.

In August, Sirius announced it had added 600,460 net new subscribers in the second quarter, and in October the company reported 441,000 for the third quarter. Those additions give Sirius 5.1 million total subscribers -- or 1.2 million subscribers short of the 6.3 million forecast. Considering the average number of net additions in the previous two quarters, we believe it will be very difficult for Sirius to pull in as many as 1.2 million net new subscribers -- albeit during the holiday season -- in just three months.


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Last edited by Whiskerbiscuit; 10-31-2006 at 04:24 PM..
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Old 10-31-2006, 07:10 PM   #2
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As I was saying ..... maybe Cramer is trying to beat it up for a reason ?

From Satellite Standard.....

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TheStreet.com Seems to Be Trying Hard
October 31, 2006

TheStreet.com seems to be trying very hard to get out anything negative about Sirius these days.

On October 30, they released (to subscribers) a story titled "Sirius Reservations" which was an opinionated piece focusing on perceived negative aspects of investing in Sirius. The piece had several sections regarding rumors, and even went so far as to re-kindle a Stern-to-terrestrial model, which was outright denied by both Stern and Sirius only a month ago.

On October 31st they re-released the same story to a much wider and free distribution. Sirius stock remained in the green despite the article.

Now, after the close, they have a new article titled "Sirius Shares May Fall To Earth", which you have to pay for to read. I saved my money, because I know it is likely more of the same, and perhaps has even less research put into it.

Will this article become free tomorrow?????? If the stock stays green, it may well be issued.

I am not trying to perpetuate a conspiracy here, but something seems to be compelling The Street.com to keep the negative pressure applied to Sirius.
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Old 10-31-2006, 09:34 PM   #3
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I'm sure you dont see it the way the writer does but after reading that article all over the place today ive not seen that much in it to disagree with. other than merger talk which is stupid.

what is it you and others disagere with anyway?
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Old 10-31-2006, 11:45 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
I'm sure you dont see it the way the writer does but after reading that article all over the place today ive not seen that much in it to disagree with. other than merger talk which is stupid.

what is it you and others disagere with anyway?
Fair question.....

I could start with the title. Anything written with "Sirius Reservations" written into the text automatically questions the Authors creative prose.

But Seriously...LOL.... here is a clip.

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"On a fundamental basis, the company's sales have grown from $67 million in 2004 to $242 million in 2005 and have reached $277 million year to date. However, Sirius' operating expenses are roughly $1 billion annually, and it has not reported a single quarter of operating income or operating cash flow. Given that, investors must size up Sirius' growth prospects going forward -- and they don't look good.

The first hurdle is competition. XM Satellite (XMSR - commentary - Cramer's Take), Sirius' chief rival, has more total subscriptions, as well as lower costs per subscriber because it uses smaller chips in its radio units. Also, consider that Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) has stepped into the satellite radio auto market by signing deals with automakers to put iPods into cars. This could further cut into Sirius' subscriber growth going forward.

In addition, Howard Stern's five-year, $500 million deal -- which enkindled so much buzz for Sirius -- no longer looks like the kind of success story that the radio satellite company needs. Stern's ad sales are down, and his celebrity guest bookings are almost nonexistent, and traffic on his Web site is down as well. There have also been rumors in the media that Stern will return to FM radio (while continuing to work on satellite radio), which could cause some Sirius subscribers to defect back to traditional radio. "

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Regardless of one's camp, this piece is rehash, opinion and conjecture at it's finest. The story goes on to say that if Siri misses it's 6.3 EOY the stock will or may go to 3.00 per share.

If one used the same logic for XM missing any or all of it's slighest goals, XM would be worth about $1.34 as they can't hit the side of a barn with an elephant.

To the thinking person ( IMHO ) the Author is very green, very biased or very needy.

It's just a poorly written neglient piece of horse manure.
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Old 11-01-2006, 03:50 AM   #5
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"The story goes on to say that if Siri misses it's 6.3 EOY the stock will or may go to 3.00 per share.

If one used the same logic for XM missing any or all of it's slighest goals, XM would be worth about $1.34 as they can't hit the side of a barn with an elephant."

I don't understand either what your problem is with this article. If Sirius does miss their end of the year target their stock will probably fall to $3 a share, maybe lower. At one time XMSR was trading at $40 a share, they started missing their targets and now it's $12 a share.

Is your opinion that every stock analyst must write a positive article about Sirius, and if he/she doesn't they're being bias?
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Old 11-01-2006, 08:20 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
"The story goes on to say that if Siri misses it's 6.3 EOY the stock will or may go to 3.00 per share.

If one used the same logic for XM missing any or all of it's slighest goals, XM would be worth about $1.34 as they can't hit the side of a barn with an elephant."

I don't understand either what your problem is with this article. If Sirius does miss their end of the year target their stock will probably fall to $3 a share, maybe lower. At one time XMSR was trading at $40 a share, they started missing their targets and now it's $12 a share.

Is your opinion that every stock analyst must write a positive article about Sirius, and if he/she doesn't they're being bias?

Not at all, but a speck of reality would be nice.

Sirius has been tarred and feathered by the underperformance by XM and this writing is just another example.

Based on your logic ( that results percipitate stock price ) Sirius should be at 12.00 per share now as there hasn't been one projection or goal that hasn't been exceeded for over a year.
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Old 11-01-2006, 08:30 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Not at all, but a speck of reality would be nice.

Sirius has been tarred and feathered by the underperformance by XM and this writing is just another example.

Based on your logic ( that results percipitate stock price ) Sirius should be at 12.00 per share now as there hasn't been one projection or goal that hasn't been exceeded for over a year.
How much did Mel say in interviews Sirius was going to be making in advertising within the next year? It was some outrageous figure and I know they aren't on track to making it. Something like $100 million, etc.

That is a projection or goal missed/on track to miss. I'm sure there are others that aren't subscriber based.
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Old 11-01-2006, 09:02 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRadioFan
How much did Mel say in interviews Sirius was going to be making in advertising within the next year? It was some outrageous figure and I know they aren't on track to making it. Something like $100 million, etc.

That is a projection or goal missed/on track to miss. I'm sure there are others that aren't subscriber based.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Mel used the word predict. He did not offer this as a business forcast as part of any investor format or analyst call. also 2007 isn't done yet...maybe he's right .... I don't put this in the same context as XM who formally reduced forcasts three times in < 8 months.

------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- Sirius Satellite Radio's ad revenue will rocket from $1 million to $100 million by 2007, CEO Mel Karmazin predicts, turning one of the hottest consumer electronics segments into one of the fastest-growing advertising mediums.

But the bullish executive will have to reconcile his aggressive advertising growth plan with subscribers' strong resistance to commercials.

In an exclusive, broad-ranging interview with Advertising Age, Mr. Karmazin said he is in exploratory talks with the likes of Apple, Sony and Motorola to embed satellite capabilities into iPods, hand-held game players and cellphones.

"One day maybe iPod will be interested in putting in a satellite radio," said Mr. Karmazin. He said he last talked to Apple CEO Steve Jobs late last year, and while he didn't specify the topic of that talk, added, "The conversations are always ongoing about things we can do together, even if it's not necessarily music but some of our other content. We're constantly talking to all potential partners, including cellphone people and game companies, to make the product as widely distributed as possible."
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Old 11-01-2006, 09:39 AM   #9
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Quote:
Sirius has been tarred and feathered by the underperformance by XM and this writing is just another example.
I'm not trying to be critical but it seems to me you are not looking at this very objectively -- the writer made a lot of good points in his article imho. and if siri does miss its 6.3 mill. goal by much the stock could easily drop below 3.

with xmsr we have to see if they get back on track maybe they will maybe they wont. their mgmt looks to have underestmated the effect of stern going to siri but overall it is hard to say xmsr has underperformed compared to siri until siri is catching xmsr in vital areas. siri has done good in stores this year, but xmsr is still outperfoming siri in most other areas.

i kno you will call me troll for it but i agree with that dudes letter.
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Old 11-01-2006, 10:59 AM   #10
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Don't ever lose sight of the fact that Cramer works for CBS. They will never forget what Stern did to the radio division by making the move to satellite.
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Old 11-01-2006, 01:23 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazzar
Don't ever lose sight of the fact that Cramer works for CBS. They will never forget what Stern did to the radio division by making the move to satellite.
----------------------

I don't know if that has anything to do with it, but it seems that anything associated with Cramer's STREET or Cramer himself has to be based on shock, hyperbole, screaming, jumping arround, and in general being an attention seeking ass hole.

This is Cramer. A lime green leisure suit at a funeral.

Even the pages of STREET are strung out to get the maximum view and advertising time. To me, Cramer isn't about knowledge or consideration. More like the National Enquirer meets Barnum and Bailey.
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Old 11-01-2006, 03:34 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Not at all, but a speck of reality would be nice.

Sirius has been tarred and feathered by the underperformance by XM and this writing is just another example.

Based on your logic ( that results percipitate stock price ) Sirius should be at 12.00 per share now as there hasn't been one projection or goal that hasn't been exceeded for over a year.
I think the writer was being realistic. I've said this a million times here, we have to look past this sub count war both companies have gotten into. Financially Sirius is NOT in good shape. Even if they make their 6.3 million target they still have a bunch of other problems. Unless they do some very creative book keeping there's no way they will be cash flow positive by years end. They are a billion $'s in debt, both companies saw a drop in year to year total sub growth, competition from Ipods, MP3 players, etc, is only going to get worse. Near term things are not rosy. I'm sure Wall Street knows this so don't blame SIRI $3-4 price all on XM.
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Old 11-01-2006, 03:42 PM   #13
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"Financially Sirius is NOT in good shape."

Well, name one US company that IS in good shape financially? Google? GM? FORD?

All I see is a company going from 600K subs a year ago to 5Mil+ today.

That's gotta amount to something.
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Old 11-01-2006, 03:55 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustytrombone
"Financially Sirius is NOT in good shape."

Well, name one US company that IS in good shape financially? Google? GM? FORD?

All I see is a company going from 600K subs a year ago to 5Mil+ today.

That's gotta amount to something.
Actually Sirius took 2 years to go from 600k to 5 mil, but thats not important.

If you're going to look just at the sub count, then yeah it looks decent. If you want to look at things realistically and look past the sub numbers, then things don't look so rosy..AND remember both company's sub counts are 'inflated' with freebie subs, trial subs, and cars sitting on dealer lots.

I hate being Mr. Doom and Gloom, but don't give either company an automatic pass to profitability just because all of us here are Sirius and XM fans/subs.... Neither company is anywhere close to turning a profit.

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Old 11-01-2006, 03:57 PM   #15
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I hear ya.
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