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Old 11-03-2006, 11:05 AM   #1
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Default XMSR XM Satellite: 3Q06 preview;

From Satellite Standard


Morgan Joseph: XMSR Earnings Preview
Live In Play, www.briefing.com, 03-Nov-06, 08:37

XMSR XM Satellite: 3Q06 preview;

XMSR continues to struggle - Morgan Joseph (11.25 )
Morgan Joseph expects XMSR to report Nov 6, befroe the markets. Firm expects rev and EBITDA of $236.1 mln and ($50.3) mln. Firm's rev est represents 54.2% y/y growth. Firm also expects EPS of ($0.40), flat with 3Q05. Firm's forecasted 3Q06 SAC (subscriber acquisition cost) and CPGA (cost per gross addition) is $76.60 and $123.70, respectively, up significantly from $53.70 and $89.30 a year ago. Firn says in early Oct, XMSR announced that it added 285,000 net new subscribers in 3Q06 and ended the quarter with 7.185 mln total subscribers, well below firm's 401,000 and 7.301 mln ests. Firm expects the co to provide an update on Y06 guidance. Currently, firm ests Y06 year-end subscribers of 7.821 mln and Y07 year-end subscribers of 10.136 mln. Firm expects continued high churn and notes the retail channel remains weak. Firm also notes co signed a deal with Cingular Wireless to stream 25 XM music channels to its handsets as part of XM Radio Mobile for $8.99 per month.
The link to this write-up is: HERE
SSG is not a Financial Advisor. Read Disclosure: HERE
posted by ssg5 at 11/03/2006 11:17:00 AM
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Old 11-03-2006, 01:05 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
From Satellite Standard


Morgan Joseph: XMSR Earnings Preview
Live In Play, www.briefing.com, 03-Nov-06, 08:37

XMSR XM Satellite: 3Q06 preview;

XMSR continues to struggle - Morgan Joseph (11.25 )
Morgan Joseph expects XMSR to report Nov 6, befroe the markets. Firm expects rev and EBITDA of $236.1 mln and ($50.3) mln. Firm's rev est represents 54.2% y/y growth. Firm also expects EPS of ($0.40), flat with 3Q05. Firm's forecasted 3Q06 SAC (subscriber acquisition cost) and CPGA (cost per gross addition) is $76.60 and $123.70, respectively, up significantly from $53.70 and $89.30 a year ago. Firn says in early Oct, XMSR announced that it added 285,000 net new subscribers in 3Q06 and ended the quarter with 7.185 mln total subscribers, well below firm's 401,000 and 7.301 mln ests. Firm expects the co to provide an update on Y06 guidance. Currently, firm ests Y06 year-end subscribers of 7.821 mln and Y07 year-end subscribers of 10.136 mln. Firm expects continued high churn and notes the retail channel remains weak. Firm also notes co signed a deal with Cingular Wireless to stream 25 XM music channels to its handsets as part of XM Radio Mobile for $8.99 per month.
The link to this write-up is: HERE
SSG is not a Financial Advisor. Read Disclosure: HERE
posted by ssg5 at 11/03/2006 11:17:00 AM
That sounds bleak.
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Old 11-04-2006, 10:20 AM   #3
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AP
Earnings Preview: Satellite Radio
Friday November 3, 4:10 pm ET
XM and Sirius Expected to Signal Losses, Satellite Radio Orbit Shakey

NEW YORK (AP) -- XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. report third-quarter earnings next week. The following is a summary of key developments and analyst opinion related to the period.

OVERVIEW: XM and Sirius have a duopoly in the market for subscription satellite radio, with XM the larger of the two, measured by subscriptions. Sirius has been rapidly closing the gap this year, helped by its feature radio host, shock-jock Howard Stern.

XM reports earnings Monday, with Sirius scheduled to report Wednesday.

In the period, XM added 285,000 new subscribers, bringing its total to more than 7.2 million. Sirius surged to 5.1 million total subscribers after adding 441,101 in the period.

Each company got good news in the period from federal regulators who had flagged some products for emission problems.

On Aug. 25, XM got approval for three radio models with FM transmitters that had compliance issues, clearing the way for the satellite radio operator to resume production and shipments.

That news came a week after Sirius got approval for some of its best-selling models that had had the same problems.

The approvals removed a major obstacle facing the two ahead of the key back-to-school and holiday retail seasons.

XM isn't out of the woods yet, though. On Sept. 5, it disclosed in a regulatory filing that the Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into its handling of its estimates of subscriber counts as well as the cost of recruiting customers.

XM is expected to be buoyed by the addition of Oprah Winfrey to its lineup, which should help the company meet its full-year subscription target of 7.7 million to 8.2 million. The company twice cut subscriber guidance during the year, the second time in July.

Sirius is expected to continue closing the subscriber gap after introducing a handheld device that can receive live signals from the company's satellites. The Stiletto 100 will be able to store music and play it later, a function similar to MP3 players such as Apple's iPod.

A similar device, made by Pioneer, can receive and record XM channels on-the-go. Both retail for around $350.

BY THE NUMBERS: Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect XM to report a loss of 46 cents per share on revenue of $235.3 million. The Street expects Sirius to come in with a loss of 14 cents per share on revenue of $167.6 million.

ANALYST TAKE: Bear Stearns analyst Robert S. Peck lifted his rating of each company in August. anticipating the FCC approvals. Of XM, he said the stock's price reflects too much focus on worst-case fears, without taking into account good news that will boost the price.

Peck has a similar view of Sirius, saying, "An improved marketing team coupled with the demand indicated by our survey work, indicates a rebound in the fourth quarter for the company."

Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett is less enthusiastic. Commenting on Sirius' subscriber growth, he said in an October note, "Once again, Sirius' dramatic market share gains are almost entirely a consequence of its smaller base."

He said each company is to blame for their respective stock performance because of the product problems that dogged them throughout the summer. "At the same time, weak sales by the U.S. automakers undoubtedly hurt results in the OEM channel," he added.

Despite the negative comments, Moffett rates both companies "Outperform."

STOCK PERFORMANCE: XM shares lost 11 percent to finish the period at $12.90. That's up from a 52-week low of $9.63, set in late July. The stock, once a darling of the market, was off 52 percent from the start of the year through the end of the quarter. It closed Friday at $11.39.

Sirius, meanwhile, hasn't fared any better. It lost 17 percent in the quarter to finish September at $3.92. The stock is off 41 percent for the year. Shares ended at $3.76 on Friday.
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Old 11-06-2006, 07:59 AM   #4
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Pretty good results from XM--I hope this means good things for SIRI on Wednesday. It's time for both companies to move towards some kind of profitability within the next couple of years:


"NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday posted a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss helped by a sharp boost in subscriptions to its pay-radio service, and its shares rose more than 11 percent in premarket trading.

The net loss was $83.8 million, or 32 cents a share, from a loss of $131.9 million, or 60 cents a share, a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a loss of 45 cents a share.


XM ended the quarter with 7.2 million subscribers. It said the cost of acquiring users, who pay about $13 a month for the service, rose to $60 from $53 last year."
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Old 11-06-2006, 10:31 AM   #5
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Traders most likely will not trade on the actual numbers on wed. but the guidence going forward.
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Old 11-06-2006, 01:20 PM   #6
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Great job XM... I have stated on this board a few times that sub numbers paint only a partial picture.

If SIRI shows any high side on losses or CPGA watch out...

Investors are finally getting it!
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Old 11-06-2006, 01:34 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave
Great job XM... I have stated on this board a few times that sub numbers paint only a partial picture.

If SIRI shows any high side on losses or CPGA watch out...

Investors are finally getting it!

yeah. I think at this point in the game the sub numbers game isn't gonna cut it any more... it's time for xm and sirius to start making some money instead of losing it.
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Old 11-06-2006, 02:29 PM   #8
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Hopefully this is the beginning of viability for both companies, it'd be great to see Sirius come out with similar numbers on Wednesday. Maybe positive results for both will shoot down all this merger crap.
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Old 11-06-2006, 05:19 PM   #9
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Quote:
it'd be great to see Sirius come out with similar numbers on Wednesday.
Sorry this isnt in the cards for qtr3 as siris costs to get subs are still far too high.

unfortunately todays gains may be shortlived if it depends on siris conf. call.
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Old 11-06-2006, 05:58 PM   #10
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I've been saying for awhile to forget the sub counts for the time being.. All this Stern is doing this for Sirius and MLB is doing that XM is useless. Right now both companies have to cut costs and make money. XM is cutting costs more aggressively now, hopefully Sirius will start soon.
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Old 11-06-2006, 07:26 PM   #11
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What was Greenspan's term ?

Before you get too giddy.

XM lost 109 million Q3-2005. (.60 share )
They were expected to lose 75 million Q3-2006 ( .42 share )
They lost 60 million ( .32 per share ) .
( the above are generalizations not exact numbers )

Everyone's peeing themsleves because a billion dollar company lost 15 million less than it was expected to. Put this in context .... 15 million bucks wouldn't launch a satellite. Small taters.

----

I propose that your expections were severely lowered due to 11 months of continual bad news. Had the top or bottom line of any 1B company moved 1.5% it would be totally ignored.

Subs matter. Revenue matters and Churn matters. XM's churn increased 30% from December to September.

What XM DID DO was to slightly reduce spending and move costs into Q4 where they will be better absorbed by the seasonal revenue increase.

--------------

I do think Nate did a good job speaking-communicating today. I also think Panero is lucky that Nate saved his worthless and basically clueless ass. Nate has mojo that will make 2007 much more sporting. No more free rides for Sirius. Now they have to work for it since IQ has entered the XM stage.

Last edited by Whiskerbiscuit; 11-06-2006 at 07:29 PM..
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Old 11-07-2006, 11:20 AM   #12
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Quote:
Everyone's peeing themsleves because a billion dollar company lost 15 million less than it was expected to. Put this in context .... 15 million bucks wouldn't launch a satellite. Small taters.
There are lots of things 15 million wouldnt do but what does that have to do with anything the fact is that xm came in far far below the streets estimates and showed wallstreet that it can add subscribers without overspending which is what led to the decline in xmsrs stock price to begin with when in q4 last year it was incorrectly perceived that xmsr would have to spend much money to grow the busienss.

if siri can report performance as good tomorrow it will lift the industry but that is highly unlikely due to siris unwieldy fixed costs and it is i think going to pull both down tomorrow.
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:35 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit

XM lost 109 million Q3-2005. (.60 share )
They were expected to lose 75 million Q3-2006 ( .42 share )
They lost 60 million ( .32 per share ) .
( the above are generalizations not exact numbers )

Everyone's peeing themsleves because a billion dollar company lost 15 million less than it was expected to. Put this in context .... 15 million bucks wouldn't launch a satellite. Small taters.
Peeing themselves? Its great to hear good news from either company...

Beating loss estimates by 20% is a big deal. If you want to see the other side of the issue look at the revenue line. The farther the gap the better.

The main point is that even with subscribers slowing XM is actually pushing towards and in some cases beating their financial goals.

Sirius however has been beating the street estimates for sub additions however they still do not seem to have losses under control.

On top of this Sirius demands a HUGE premium in valuation over the company that appears to be on track for CFBE and has their expenses under control.

Sirius will suffer through the same things XM has Gross to Net Adds as their base increases next year so can the Dog Star show great numbers tommorow?

If not it will be a blood bath... if they do beat estimates it will be a great story for the sector.
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:42 PM   #14
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"XM's churn increased 30% from December to September. "

OEM installs. Something Sirius will suffer from soon also.

I will become 'giddy' when both companies actually turn a profit. Until then I'l remain realistic. But any good news is welcome news, and XM's results are better then I expected.
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Old 11-07-2006, 03:52 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave
Peeing themselves? Its great to hear good news from either company...

Beating loss estimates by 20% is a big deal. If you want to see the other side of the issue look at the revenue line. The farther the gap the better.

The main point is that even with subscribers slowing XM is actually pushing towards and in some cases beating their financial goals.

Sirius however has been beating the street estimates for sub additions however they still do not seem to have losses under control.

On top of this Sirius demands a HUGE premium in valuation over the company that appears to be on track for CFBE and has their expenses under control.

Sirius will suffer through the same things XM has Gross to Net Adds as their base increases next year so can the Dog Star show great numbers tommorow?

If not it will be a blood bath... if they do beat estimates it will be a great story for the sector.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree with a percentage of your opinion. A small percentage it must be said. but we agree that good news for the industry is overdue !

Lucky for you a 20% reduction sounds better than 1.5% of gross sales, because that's the reality of the situation.

Having their losses under control remains to be seen and will be demonstrated over the next three quarters. One thing for sure, any company can control their spending at their will. They can't control Sub adds easily or churns for that matter. In that regard, Sirius will eventually seduce, reduce and erode XM's customer base at this pace.

Stay with me on this one.... I don't care who has a better quarter. I care about who wins the satrad war. Winning at the end of the day will come down to who adds the most cost effective subs and that is determined by who has the best and most demanding content. At THIS point, ( things can change ) that's Sirius.

In the end it's not going to matter. In the end, Siri eats XMSR whole with the upcoming merger.
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