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Old 11-09-2006, 03:35 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave
I thought XM was a fool proof investment over $30 a share.

GREAT Quarter for Sirius and XM!

The sector looks like it is finally headed back up.

Mel's $1 Billion comment still has me scratching my head... I had a Clayton like flashback when I read that.

Of course $1 Billion to what costs?

Anyway both companies are headed the right way!
i think both sirius and xm have bottomed as far as share price. have a little faith in mel. over the 2 years that mel has been at sirius he delivers what he promises. college friend that has been working at merrill lynch 4 over 10 years said the earnings report was good and he has recently moved out of xm into sirius for what its worth. i think either way u go either xm or sirius there is money 2 be made in the long term
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Old 11-14-2006, 09:33 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
but you cannot discount the fact that xmsr is in much better position with them. whats bad about them is the lead time is so long so xmsr signed a deal with toyota years ago and they still arent producing many yet cause it just takes too long.

FlagRiot,

The facts are that for 9 months ending September 2006 total OEM net adds are as follows:

SIRIUS 786,381
XM 718,840
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Old 11-14-2006, 10:25 PM   #18
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Quote:
The facts are that for 9 months ending September 2006 total OEM net adds are as follows:

SIRIUS 786,381
XM 718,840
but the facts are also that siri says it is counting about 300-400k that have not been sold while xm doesnt. if you add to xmsrs the number that havent been sold the picture changes a lot.

also the facts are that siris oem deployment depends on American oems but xmsrs depends on japanese deployments and the japanese deployments are just starting. nissan and toyota have been slow to come to market with factory installed satellite radio but both are starting to bring out signiifcant #s. and hyundai is just beginning a std equpt install across all models which is big (appx 700k units/yr). all these will be fact. inst. xmsr not siri so xmsrs totals will increase a lot over the nexst 2-3 yrs.

if xmsr was buying the radios like siri is on chryslr/ford then they could be getting lots more fact insts. it is a question of how much money do you want to spend to get fact. installed -- xmsr is just being more careful about spending the $$$
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Old 11-14-2006, 10:37 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
but the facts are also that siri says it is counting about 300-400k that have not been sold while xm doesnt. if you add to xmsrs the number that havent been sold the picture changes a lot.
They are "prepaid subscriptions period". My numbers are straight from the SEC filings. Prove your numbers to me of 300-400k. An estimate is clearly NOT FACTS.
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Old 11-14-2006, 10:42 PM   #20
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[QUOTE=FlagRiot]

some of these jokers like jcramer cant see that car mfrs. is where the real business is but you cannot discount the fact that xmsr is in much better position with them. QUOTE]


I can see you clearly have not read the SEC's from XMSR concerning the relationship with GM and the cost of those radios being put in GM cars.
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Old 11-15-2006, 12:58 AM   #21
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Quote:
They are "prepaid subscriptions period". My numbers are straight from the SEC filings. Prove your numbers to me of 300-400k. An estimate is clearly NOT FACTS.
Why, that is ridiculous. Estimates are used all the time in financial matters -- siris financial stmts contain tens if not 100s of estimates.

anyway, it not my estimate it is david frears. He plainly said at a nvestor conference within the last couple of months these amount to about 8% of siris subs so you can do the math. if the numbers arent facts then i suggest you talk to frear about it.

you have to know what your comparing...in siris case they start counting fact. installs when the vehicle is built and will in all cases count it as a sub for a full yr after sale but xmsr starts counting when the vehicle is sold and counts it only for 3 months if it churns. mel karm. has said just today that the oem churn rate is about 50% just like xmsrs but not until 1 yr after the car is sold and it has already been counted as a sub for a few months more then a yr.

im not saying it is bad or isnt im just pointing out that xmsr is a bit more conservative in its counting of fact install subs then siri is.
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Old 11-15-2006, 01:04 AM   #22
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Quote:
I can see you clearly have not read the SEC's from XMSR concerning the relationship with GM and the cost of those radios being put in GM cars.
sure i read the 10q/k for both cos every period. xmsr is subsidizing gm to do fact installs just like siri is paying chryslr and ford -- even more - but xmsr is not subsidizing the others (toy, niss., hond. hyundai, etc.) heavily like siri is chrysler/ford and xmsr is not paying for the hardware but they do subsidize some.

xmsr is paying gm for lots of stuff though not just for intsalls you have to remember that gm financned xmsr thru a tough period when siri decided to dilute to a billion shares but xmsr had gm to handle the financing and even today gm is still providing financing. you cant just say look at all the $$$ xmsr is paying gm -- look at all those sacs cost;; a lot of those $$$ involved other things.

not sure what your point is but i dont think anyone is really trying to claim siri is in as strong a oem position as xmsr is at least i have not heard it other then from you.
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Old 11-15-2006, 07:54 PM   #23
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NPD data shows that Retail sales continue to slow, w/ an Oct industry decline of (25%), worse than the (11%) Sept. drop. Oct. results are consistent w/our view of slowing Retail growth and tough '06 sub targets, particularly for SIRI.
Sirius maintained its retail advantage in October with 56% market share (down from 57% in (Sept) with a (26%) Y/Y unit decline versus (23%) for XMSR.

so based on npd data if trend continues i expect retail growth will slow for the 4th quarter compared to last year. I'm sure mel has factored all of this in.

Is it very possible for Sirius to still make numbers? Assuming worst case scenario of 25% decline for quarter compared to last year(900,645 net subs). Sirius should get around 675,000 net subs from retail

Sirius Oem Subs so far have seen there greatest growth rates in the 4th quarter of every year since 2004 when new models roll out.

Is it possible for sirius 2 get over 506,000 net oem subs for the quarter?
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Old 11-15-2006, 08:53 PM   #24
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FlagRiot,

The only thing I was trying to say is that Sirius is leading XM in "NET OEM" subs (as well as retail). Both companies only count them when they are paid for by either the customer or oem. These are prepaid subs... The bottom line is that each company could have 100 million gross adds for OEM. It is the NET ADDS that is important. Of course down the road, those gross adds could become subs in used cars.

again

The facts are that for 9 months ending September 2006 total OEM NET adds are as follows:

SIRIUS 786,381
XM 718,840

I strongly believe in both companies and I am invested in both. More so for Sirius but...... Both of these companies will reward down the road.
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Old 11-16-2006, 09:02 AM   #25
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Quote:
The only thing I was trying to say is that Sirius is leading XM in "NET OEM" subs (as well as retail).
I saw that but all i was saying was that it is not comparing apples to apples because siri counts subs different from xmsr. the issue about siris counting oem subs has been argued all over the place so theres no more need and i understand you say they are ppd but that really has nothing to do with it if half of them will be leaving when the free period is over. those other arguements have been over and over this but siri has just paid extra to be sure they wont be churn for the first year.

Quote:
The bottom line is that each company could have 100 million gross adds for OEM. It is the NET ADDS that is important.
agree net adds = revenue. but the problem is one of measuring net adds.

when do you do it? After a month? two? six? twelve? the lth of this time should not be arbitrary.

these 2 cos measure net adds different -- xmsr uses a 3 month window and siri users a 12 mth window. now you can say yes but siri rcvs. 12 months of pmt and thats true but that 12 mth pmt is a result of the deal with chryslr. not with the customer. and these are different cause the customer can (and half do) churn at the end of the 12 mths.

not saying right or wrong but different.

Quote:
The facts are that for 9 months ending September 2006 total OEM NET adds are as follows:

SIRIUS 786,381
XM 718,840
and as i said before siri counts cars long before they get sold and xmsr doesnt and siri doesnt count churn for at least a yr while xmsr counts churn after about 3 mths.

two different things.
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Old 11-16-2006, 09:23 AM   #26
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If Sirius is getting paid for a 12 month subscription why shouldn't they count it as a subscription?
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Old 11-16-2006, 09:30 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmbingham
If Sirius is getting paid for a 12 month subscription why shouldn't they count it as a subscription?
According to GAAP they have to. How else would they flag the revenue?Flagriot is trying to spin this the way he sees fit. His logic that the consumer may not choose a subscription after the year is up is weak. The subscription is paid for by the OEM just as a consumer at retail would pay for the year up front.

As far as sitting around for a long time, I believe the money switched hands at the port or on delivery to the dealer.
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Old 11-16-2006, 11:12 AM   #28
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Quote:
If Sirius is getting paid for a 12 month subscription why shouldn't they count it as a subscription?
they should count it. For 12 full months dont you agree? but should they be counting it for 2-3 months before the car is sold? im not trying to re-fight this fight because it has been amply talked about on other places and pro-siri people seem to think it is okay and pro-xm people seem to think it isnt so there is no end to it.

like others have pointed out the revenue is included according to gaap which means for the 12 months beginning on the day the car gets sold and that makes sense but for whatever reason siri is counting the subscriber for a few months before that when the car comes off the assembly line and you have to admit that just doesnt make a lot of sense b ut thats not what we"re talking about here right?

what we are talking about here is that xmsr & siri count them different ways cause xmsr determines whether a sub is converted after 3 months but siri determines whether a sub is converted after 12 months and mel says the conversion rate is same as xmsrs. the last 9 of those 12 months we know those customers would have left siri but for the fact that they had a prepaid sub and they cant leave even if they try very hard even though we know half of them want to.

im not trying to say they arent subs or legitimate paying subs only that the #s arent comparable to xmsrs because they are measured different.

take a step further and say xmsr does what siri did and gives toyota the radios for $120 each and toyota agrees to pay xmsr $10/mo for 12 months and suddnly xmsr gets to count toyota subs for a whole 12 months instead of only 3 months even though xmsr is in the same position as before.

point is these contracts are different and siri designed its oem contracts to keep subs around longer than xmsr did.

at first nobody knew whether a longer trial period would help the conversion rate but now we know so why do they keep doing it? if they cut back to 3 mth they have to report increased churn not due to a lower conversion rate but due to shorter period of time. u just cant compare these 2 diff. ways without some kind of ajustment.
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Old 11-16-2006, 11:19 AM   #29
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Quote:
His logic that the consumer may not choose a subscription after the year is up is weak.
this is a known that about 50% will not choose a sub after theyear is up it isnt just me guessing it is what the ceo says.

Quote:
The subscription is paid for by the OEM just as a consumer at retail would pay for the year up front.
ok fine if you think it is just as good to have the oem paying for the sub as having consumers cause i dont see it that way. maybe siri should just kick in for an additional yr of prepaid sub? do you think that is the path to making money?

im trying to avoid that disagreement cause others have beat it to death without resolved but im just trying to make the point that it affects the way you count oem subs.

i think ive either made that point or youre just unable to see it so if it is okay ill move on to other subject.
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Old 11-16-2006, 05:09 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
this is a known that about 50% will not choose a sub after theyear is up it isnt just me guessing it is what the ceo says.



ok fine if you think it is just as good to have the oem paying for the sub as having consumers cause i dont see it that way. maybe siri should just kick in for an additional yr of prepaid sub? do you think that is the path to making money?

im trying to avoid that disagreement cause others have beat it to death without resolved but im just trying to make the point that it affects the way you count oem subs.

i think ive either made that point or youre just unable to see it so if it is okay ill move on to other subject.

i don't think there is anything wrong with the way sirius or xm counts their subs. Each company has different strategies with oem's.I think its all based on marketing strategy and deals with oem's. I believe xm will switch to sirius strategy just like xm did when sirius was the only satellite radio provider offering commercial free music.

I think xm strategy has greater risk and this is just my opinion but I believe someone will more likely subscribe for the longterm the longer you have listened 2 satellite radio. only time will tell which strategy is working better,

like i said b4 i don't think there is anything wrong with the way sirius or xm count their subs. If sirius shouldn't count the subs that the oems are paying sirius 4 then xm shouldn't count the over 613,000 subscribers in oem promotional periods.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061106/dcm013.html?.v=70
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