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Old 11-16-2006, 06:02 PM   #31
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If I could weigh in on this great discussion.

In fact, Retail now represents maybe 40-45% of all adds. Sirius has had the advantage here, but as most point out, this retail number is going to be much less important ( except over Q4's ) than it has been in the past.

This makes OEM's the most valuable segment. Regardless of your preferences, this is true.

There are two areas that are overlooked when XM fans hype their present advantage.

1. The contract that XM has with GM can and will be changed if XM fails to have a certain but unknown ( to us ) market share. I sincerely believe that this is why Sirius is working so damn hard to take share.

2. With only 30% of 2007 models being loaded, it doesn't matter if XM has 58% of the share by vehicle produced. Sirius simply supplies more units to OEM's to make up that difference..... and I can tell you that it's happening.

Visit a DCX or VW ( I don't know about Ford ) dealership and get a gander at the HIGH number of vehicles loaded with Sirius. I did the same walk about at GM and Honda-Toyota dealerships and saw a much lesser percentage.

XM's OEM share won't matter until 90% of vehicles are loaded IF Sirius can't flip XM at GM.
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Old 11-16-2006, 06:47 PM   #32
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I think xm strategy has greater risk and this is just my opinion but I believe someone will more likely subscribe for the longterm the longer you have listened 2 satellite radio. only time will tell which strategy is working better,
if siri mgmt is being truthful and i think they are then we already know the answer to this - siri hasnt openlyl stated its conversion rate but mk said this week (smartmoney)

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Q. You have not released churn numbers, XM is at about 50% churn, that seems scary.

A. Not scary, assume our numbers will be about the same. Assume 50% - 8 million come with satellite radio. That means we will have 4 million who continue to be subscribers - just in cars.
since siri hasnt released its own #s it is fair to believe what mk is saying imho.

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like i said b4 i don't think there is anything wrong with the way sirius or xm count their subs. If sirius shouldn't count the subs that the oems are paying sirius 4 then xm shouldn't count the over 613,000 subscribers in oem promotional periods.
i dont think anyone is complaining about siri counting its promo subs -- the problem arises in that they start counting them several months on avg before they become a sub. counting promo subs for the 12 month period makes perfect sense imo. but counting them for longer then 12 mths. seems a bit aggressive but the discussion here was about whether the # of new xmsr oem subs could be compared w/the # of new siri subs and thats a different arguement.
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Old 11-16-2006, 06:58 PM   #33
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What I thought was really good in this 3Q was that this happened for the first time ever:

Total revenue for the third quarter of 2006 increased to $167.1 million
SIRIUS reported a net loss of ($162.9) million

SIRIUS brought in more $ in revenue than they had in net loss. Finally. On the way to profitability. It just takes time.
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Old 11-16-2006, 07:03 PM   #34
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[quote]1. The contract that XM has with GM can and will be changed if XM fails to have a certain but unknown ( to us ) market share. I sincerely believe that this is why Sirius is working so damn hard to take share.[quote]

im sure xmsr _wishes_ it could get out of that contract -- it is a leftover from the early days when xmsr had to pay big bucks to get factory installs. there isnt much chance of xmsrs share dropping that low given the strength of its other oems like toyta, nisann, etc. but the industry as a whole would be much better if gm could move to siri as xmsr wouldnt be weighted down with those hefty pmts & rev shr. but i think it aint gonna happen.

Quote:
2. With only 30% of 2007 models being loaded, it doesn't matter if XM has 58% of the share by vehicle produced. Sirius simply supplies more units to OEM's to make up that difference..... and I can tell you that it's happening.
this is right but chrsyler is doing this at big cost to siri -- $$$ which siri can ill-afford to spend. xmsr is paying lots to gm but not to other oems. xmsr is probly smart to let gm move at its own pace on this cause they have plenty of lower cost oems to still have a much bigger oem install ###s over the next few yrs.

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Visit a DCX or VW ( I don't know about Ford ) dealership and get a gander at the HIGH number of vehicles loaded with Sirius. I did the same walk about at GM and Honda-Toyota dealerships and saw a much lesser percentage.
dcx is doing great by siri but again being highly pd -- if you look at what siri is spending it is not that much worse than xmsr/gm.

xmsr continues to be in a much better oem situation cause of the jap. oems commitment to deeply integrating sat radio instead of just hanging it on like the american oems are doing. and for other reasons.
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:04 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BAMA
so based on npd data if trend continues i expect retail growth will slow for the 4th quarter compared to last year. I'm sure mel has factored all of this in.

Is it very possible for Sirius to still make numbers? Assuming worst case scenario of 25% decline for quarter compared to last year(900,645 net subs). Sirius should get around 675,000 net subs from retail

Sirius Oem Subs so far have seen there greatest growth rates in the 4th quarter of every year since 2004 when new models roll out.

Is it possible for sirius 2 get over 506,000 net oem subs for the quarter?
The reported NPD 26% decline of retail sales is more indicative of potential changes to gross adds. I've estimated last year's Q4 gross retail to be around 984k. If you want to project retail subs based on the NPD report, there would only be about 728k gross retail adds this quarter. I'm using 184k for the estimated Q4 retail churn. This would produce something like 544k net retail additions. That would be a disaster for Sirius. But, it's relatively safe to discount this early NPD info.

Only someone on heavy duty hallucinogenics could imagine more than 500k net OEM adds this quarter. The problems of the American auto industry has been prominently featured in the news. Slumping sales, orders down, inventories stacking up, early end of year plant shutdowns, there's little positive news. Chrysler overproduced in Q3 and much of the excess was refused by dealers. Over 50,000 vehicles were kept on factory storage lots throughout October. Ford's hot new crossover was supposed to be at dealers early this month. However production was halted for quality issues. Deliveries aren't expected to begin until next month. These sort of events are going to impact Sirius' sub numbers.

Q4 of last year Sirius had OEM chrun at something around 40k. It's a different story now. Q4 will easily see over 150k OEM deactivations. I'm expecting their Q4 OEM net increase not to exceed 295k. To meet their guidance, it appears Sirius needs to produce 890k or more net retail subs. To do that will require sales of well over a million radios. The reported NPD trend of slowing retail sales had better not carry over into the rest of the quarter. But, that shouldn't be a problem, Mel has factored all this in.

Last edited by Scorpion; 11-17-2006 at 01:13 PM..
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Old 11-18-2006, 09:47 AM   #36
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and the internet new subs might number a few hundred thousand
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Old 11-18-2006, 10:34 AM   #37
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Quote:
and the internet new subs might number a few hundred thousand
this is a joke right?
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Old 11-18-2006, 12:08 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garypl
and the internet new subs might number a few hundred thousand


Thanks I needed a laugh today.
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