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Old 11-26-2006, 10:29 PM   #16
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If XM hit 30 and Sirius did < shit, Siri would be 25-35% of XM's price.
Whisker

do you understand that siri has like 1.4-1.5 billion shares outstd while xmsr has maybe 300 million which means at 30% of xmsr's price at 30 would put siri at 12.6 billion vs. xmsr at 9 billion while xmsr has more subs and better auto mfr contracts and better receivers/related technology and etc.? and less expensive content too? and paying less than half per new sub?

have you even considered any of this stuff or what?
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Old 11-29-2006, 12:45 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
Whisker

do you understand that siri has like 1.4-1.5 billion shares outstd while xmsr has maybe 300 million which means at 30% of xmsr's price at 30 would put siri at 12.6 billion vs. xmsr at 9 billion while xmsr has more subs and better auto mfr contracts and better receivers/related technology and etc.? and less expensive content too? and paying less than half per new sub?

have you even considered any of this stuff or what?
/chuckle
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Old 11-29-2006, 05:17 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Welcome MUN.

Appreciate if any of us knew the answer to this, we wouldn't be life-less piss ants blogging about some here-to-fore disapointment like satrad from an investment standpoint. I.E. The only people who have made money are the employees so far.
Employees of these companies are making close to nothing. Many have found that AM/FM radio pays better. There have been reports that some that do double duty (work on AM/FM stations too) receive no additional compensation for being on satellite. Others have left satellite (Steve & DC, Radio Chick, Kane, etc) for more money on AM/FM. With the exception of Howard Stern, and highly paid executives, satellite radio makes close to no money for everyone. It loses money.
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Old 11-29-2006, 05:20 PM   #19
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I'm by no means a financial advisor, but you can't help but think this stock is gonna plummet if they don't hit 6.3 million subscribers, and it doesn't look like they are going to.
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Old 11-29-2006, 05:38 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by SISO
I'm by no means a financial advisor, but you can't help but think this stock is gonna plummet if they don't hit 6.3 million subscribers, and it doesn't look like they are going to.
I'm a little concerned about hitting sub numbers as well, yet I'm trying to keep faith in Mel. The man has yet to miss his projections. I'm seeing alot more Sirius inventory in stores than I did last holiday season. Not to mention, the shopping season is only a week old. Add in NASCAR, Stilleto and SIR, I'm keeping my fingers crossed (although it is a very ambitious target to say the least).
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Old 11-29-2006, 06:07 PM   #21
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The man has yet to miss his projections.
he projected siri would generate $100m in ad revenue for 2007 and has since publicly stated what everyone else already knew that it is not going to happen.

that is a miss.
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Old 11-29-2006, 09:05 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
he projected siri would generate $100m in ad revenue for 2007 and has since publicly stated what everyone else already knew that it is not going to happen.

that is a miss.
Do you have the video or the text link where Mel said this at? I have not heard or seen Mel say anything like that.
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Old 11-29-2006, 11:13 PM   #23
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I believe it was during his recent Cramer appearance. But no, I don't have a "link" to it.

He did of course try to minimize it (something like weve projected 100M in 07 and we're not quite going to make that but yada yada yada).
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Old 11-30-2006, 11:20 AM   #24
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They will make their subscription numbers. They may have to give away accounts and radios to do it (like XM did last year), but they will make their sub numbers.

Again, but number to watch is Subscriber Aquisition Cost (SAC).
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Old 11-30-2006, 02:52 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
Whisker

do you understand that siri has like 1.4-1.5 billion shares outstd while xmsr has maybe 300 million which means at 30% of xmsr's price at 30 would put siri at 12.6 billion vs. xmsr at 9 billion while xmsr has more subs and better auto mfr contracts and better receivers/related technology and etc.? and less expensive content too? and paying less than half per new sub?

have you even considered any of this stuff or what?
----------------

Buddy I have piles of Q-10's and 8's coming out my ass with 4-5 years of research and number crunching, with two files of data. Trust me. This ain't Mustang on 411 taking out his tailpipe.
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Old 11-30-2006, 05:22 PM   #26
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Buddy I have piles of Q-10's and 8's coming out my ass with 4-5 years of research and number crunching, with two files of data. Trust me. This ain't Mustang on 411 taking out his tailpipe.
i agree that guy is fos big-time and in no way did i suggest you are on the same level he is.

but consider some of your recent posts in this thread:

Quote:
I have no idea why you think (any) results would move the pps next year when the positive results of the last 13 months haven't.

Satrad was out of vogue as all sectors become. When it warms up ( 2007 ) one will lead the other.

If XM hit 30 and Sirius did < shit, Siri would be 25-35% of XM's price.
and

Quote:
Here's the sort of thing I was talking about DAB. Sirius makes and raises it's numbers. Brings Howard on board, Meets deadlines for Internet Streaming, kicks XM's ass in Canada, outsubscribes XMSR three to two for the entire year, and the stock loses 45-50% of it's value from 1/1/2006 to today.

I credit Siri's stock decline ( as does most of the investment world ) on those dumb clucks at XM who can't pour piss out of a boot on most days. Panero that is.

When the investing community finally " get it " Siri's shares will be on fire !
you may have done your reading. but your remarks dont make a lot of sense.

while xmsr has royally screwed up on mktng & pr, they have executed better from day 1 in every other area -- engineering, getting oem deals, cost containment, and by many peoples estimate in content. they have not done a good job of marketing against sterns arrival.

but from mels backpeddling today it should now be obvious to you that just cause mel says 6.3 doesnt mean 6.3. 6.0? maybe but that is not impressive given the money theyspent on howard & other stuff.
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Old 11-30-2006, 05:25 PM   #27
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Before Stern came to Siri, Siri was all but DONE. They were broke, not a hint of future with their 500K subs.

16MONTHS LATER, they are approaching 6million subs.

I'd say they've done pretty good for a company that was pretty close to out of business in my eyes.
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Old 11-30-2006, 06:16 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
I believe it was during his recent Cramer appearance. But no, I don't have a "link" to it.

He did of course try to minimize it (something like weve projected 100M in 07 and we're not quite going to make that but yada yada yada).
This is not one of the 'short term targets' Mel has been aiming for and gotten right each time so far the last 2 years since he's been with SIRIUS. I remember Mel saying in the past a few times that the long term goal for investors is to have revenue come to about 10% of total revenue so, Mel didn't really project anything, with that statement anyway, that he 'missed'.

Here's the video of Mel on Mad Money. Just after 6 minutes in is where I quote Mel from in the video...

"We've told investors that our (long term) goal is to make ad revenue come to about 10% of our total revenue so, if next year we have 1 billion dollars (in revenue), we'd like to see it close to 100 (million in revenue), I don't believe we can get there."

He can't 'miss' with this statement yet, simply because it is not been long enough for the results to come about. One year is not 'long term' anyway and the end of next year isn't even here yet so, they still may be able to hit 10%. We just don't know yet, so, Mel can say that he doesn't think that they will hit the 10% but then, he always under promises and over delivers anyway.

Thanks for reminding me about the video though. Good investing to you in the future.
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Old 11-30-2006, 06:19 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustytrombone
Before Stern came to Siri, Siri was all but DONE. They were broke, not a hint of future with their 500K subs.

16MONTHS LATER, they are approaching 6million subs.

I'd say they've done pretty good for a company that was pretty close to out of business in my eyes.
You are exactly right and the only thing FlagRiot can see is all the good that XM has done, while highlighting all the bad decisions that SIRIUS has made. XM hasn't exactly made every right decision either. I love these folks though that are on this forum just to defend XM. Don't say you aren't FlagRiot because that is the only time you post is when you can defend XM. You are getting about as bad as the former xzi or whatever his name was.
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Old 11-30-2006, 06:35 PM   #30
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16MONTHS LATER, they are approaching 6million subs.

I'd say they've done pretty good for a company that was pretty close to out of business in my eyes.
surely some of those subs would have come to siri without stern after all even w/o stern they have spent a lot for content items. but if stern brought 3 m subs was he worth it?

stern may be responsible for getting them out of the mudhole they were stuck in but the 600m they are paying him is also the reason for some of their financial problems today. if they are unable to sustain their growth rate the 600m they spent on stern is going to be sorely missed.
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