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Old 11-25-2006, 09:59 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
I'll tell you, he's a calucalted Dude. Don't underestimate the fact that this came out on Black Friday. It was not random.
This is not true, the article did not come out on Black Friday, thats just when people on this site started talking about it, and when some other media outlets picked up on it.

The SmartMoney magazine has been in circulation since about November 14th.
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Old 11-25-2006, 11:49 PM   #17
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Anyways, if sounds like if XM wanted to they'd atleast try to merge.
dont suppose you have some basis for that statement?

not sure if you noticed but it seems only sirius is interested in 'merging'. xmsr doesnt seem to want to. there is sure no reason anyone would buy wrsp at this point.

it might be agood idea to think about why it is that only siri seems interested in a m/a.
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Old 11-26-2006, 08:43 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
dont suppose you have some basis for that statement?

not sure if you noticed but it seems only sirius is interested in 'merging'. xmsr doesnt seem to want to. there is sure no reason anyone would buy wrsp at this point.

That's what I'm saying, if XM did want to they may atleast try as it seems that Mel is all for it. As far as WorldSpace, I agree, no one is buying them.
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Old 12-08-2006, 12:30 PM   #19
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came up again today

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...701750_pf.html


Good news is that we would get more programing (hopefully). Double the bandwidth and cut out the repeat channels and increase SQ for all other channels.....MLB!!! Best sport for radio....

Bad news is either XM customers or Sirius customers (or both) will have to buy new recievers to get everything....or maybe anything at all... that will piss me off major.
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Old 12-08-2006, 02:10 PM   #20
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I think a merger between Sirius and Xm is almost a given at this point, and a given to most brokers who follow these stocks on wall street. It might be the only way either satellite company can survive the much larger competition that's terrestrial radio. I read where HD radio is planning to plow $250 million into advertising in 2007. It would be better for the to merger to happen sooner rather than later. I think the process is probably already underway. The FCC would most likely be for it but it in the end. It makes good bussiness sense.

Last edited by hazzar; 12-16-2006 at 06:29 PM..
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Old 12-08-2006, 03:39 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazzar
I think a merger between Sirius and Xm is almost a given at this point, and a given to most brokers who follow these stocks on wall street. It might be the only way either satellite company can survive the much larger competition that's terrestrial radio. I read where HD radio is planning to plow $250 million into advertising in 2007. It would be better for the to merger to happen sooner rather than later. I think the process I probably already underway. The FCC would most likely be for it but it in the end. It makes good bussiness sense.
----------

Indeed.

I think XM blew Mel off in October as insider stock was dumped after being frozen for 6+ months. I also think Mel's " Kick their Ass " comment was bitterness over being sent packing. ( It had to kill Mel to cut forecasts after playing hardass ) I also think that's why he threw out the Video in 2007 in attempts to rub it in for being sent home by Parsons.

Let everyone on both sides twist in the wind. Let Siri and XM get more desperate. Let some auto contracts held by GM go teetering November 2007. Let Mel sweeten the pot to say 21.00 per share. And it will happen in 2007.

No one's making shit ( including execs and performers ) until they make shineola together.

The consumers win from a merger ? .... An Ala carte offering for probably $9.99 will be the olive branch.
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Old 12-08-2006, 03:50 PM   #22
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a merger will allow for an a la cart setup. Regular, premium and premium plus video I would guess.
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Old 12-08-2006, 04:38 PM   #23
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[QUOTE=Whiskerbiscuit]----------

Indeed.

I think XM blew Mel off in October as insider stock was dumped after being frozen for 6+ months. I also think Mel's " Kick their Ass " comment was bitterness over being sent packing. ( It had to kill Mel to cut forecasts after playing hardass ) I also think that's why he threw out the Video in 2007 in attempts to rub it in for being sent home by Parsons.

Let everyone on both sides twist in the wind. Let Siri and XM get more desperate. Let some auto contracts held by GM go teetering November 2007. Let Mel sweeten the pot to say 21.00 per share. And it will happen in 2007.

Biscuit...or anyone else...could you please expand on your thoughts a little. What in your opinion would happen with the hardware? Do you see a price increase...a two tear system..like basic service and premium srevice? I'm tryin to understand this merger a little better....any comments would be cool....thanks
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Old 12-08-2006, 05:04 PM   #24
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[QUOTE=siriusurfer]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
----------

Indeed.

I think XM blew Mel off in October as insider stock was dumped after being frozen for 6+ months. I also think Mel's " Kick their Ass " comment was bitterness over being sent packing. ( It had to kill Mel to cut forecasts after playing hardass ) I also think that's why he threw out the Video in 2007 in attempts to rub it in for being sent home by Parsons.

Let everyone on both sides twist in the wind. Let Siri and XM get more desperate. Let some auto contracts held by GM go teetering November 2007. Let Mel sweeten the pot to say 21.00 per share. And it will happen in 2007.

Biscuit...or anyone else...could you please expand on your thoughts a little. What in your opinion would happen with the hardware? Do you see a price increase...a two tear system..like basic service and premium service? I'm trying to understand this merger a little better....any comments would be cool....thanks
---------------------------

Like..if any of us knew shit, we'd be posting here instead of enjoying a umbrella drink in Boca right now.

My " guess " .

The joined company would continue with the same programming initially just as it is now.

Option A: Future receivers would be designed using only one band and with a combination of the "best of " programs offered in an ala carte marketing format.

Option B: Future receivers would be built for two bands, with ala carte once again offered for both. I suspect this is more likely.

To your question Re: pricing. No increase, in fact, an optional reduction would be offered IMHO to placate the FCC/FTC. This would also have fewer offerings.

There is no doubt in my mind ( IMHO ) that a merger will automatically involve low cost units in ALL OEM vehicles with a few channels for free. ( This could offer a very quick total penetration of OEM in place of the five-seven year ramp we are now on ) IF the customer wished to expand that offering, he or she could do so with additional costs.

Last edited by Whiskerbiscuit; 12-08-2006 at 05:06 PM..
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Old 12-08-2006, 05:14 PM   #25
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[QUOTE=Whiskerbiscuit]
Quote:
Originally Posted by siriusurfer

---------------------------

Like..if any of us knew shit, we'd be posting here instead of enjoying a umbrella drink in Boca right now.

My " guess " .

The joined company would continue with the same programming initially just as it is now.

Option A: Future receivers would be designed using only one band and with a combination of the "best of " programs offered in an ala carte marketing format.

Option B: Future receivers would be built for two bands, with ala carte once again offered for both. I suspect this is more likely.

To your question Re: pricing. No increase, in fact, an optional reduction would be offered IMHO to placate the FCC/FTC. This would also have fewer offerings.

There is no doubt in my mind ( IMHO ) that a merger will automatically involve low cost units in ALL OEM vehicles with a few channels for free. ( This could offer a very quick total penetration of OEM in place of the five-seven year ramp we are now on ) IF the customer wished to expand that offering, he or she could do so with additional costs.

No worries boss....I won't take your advice and run to wall street....just lookin for a little brain food....thanks again...
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Old 12-10-2006, 10:42 AM   #26
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I have to wonder, if there is a merger, what would happen to those who spent the money for a lifetime subscription.
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Old 12-10-2006, 11:51 AM   #27
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I think all those lifetime subscriptions purchased before the merger would have to be honored. They make money because each lifetime almost always brings in 3 other subs. with them, however, at a reduced rate. Radios, warranty's etc. have to be purchased. I definitely think that the cost of a lifetime will go up dramatically, regardless of what happens.
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Old 12-10-2006, 12:09 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Briannj1970
I have to wonder, if there is a merger, what would happen to those who spent the money for a lifetime subscription.
Hey BJ.

This is one of the better, more thought out pieces that I've read just today. I think somewhere in there he supports the previous post that Lifetimes would be honored which I too feel is correct.

There is absolutly no downside to this/a merger. I think many worry warts or tight asses are afraid their rates would go up. I see them going down, and am sure the level of programming we have today won't continue without some real bell ringing profits.

--------------


What would a Sirius and XM merger look like?
Posted Dec 6th 2006 3:15PM by Douglas McIntyre
Filed under: SEC filings, Rumors, Industry, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)

While many analysts are speculating about a merger between XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI), very few have indicated just what they think a combined company would look like and what issues would need to be overcome. No one can say whether the long-rumored deal is certain, but it is worth investigating what a combined operation would look like nevertheless.

First to consider: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) may not allow a merger of the two satellite radio companies. If Sirius and XM are both running well and are still growing, then they will have to put on salesmen hats to win approval. But if both companies have growth and potential survival issues and it seems like neither can run profitably, then they would have a better case for pressing the Dept. of Justice and the FCC to approve a merger. Satellite radio is also probably not deemed as important for these agencies as terrestrial radio is. There are also some regulatory issues, which Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin has already addressed. He has also expressed interest in acquiring XM.

If this were to happen soon -- before a new administration that may or may not be more hawkish on blocking mergers -- it seems these issues could be worked out. After all, there are others that have at least some capability to offer a competing service in the U.S. and Canada.

Currently, XMSR has a $3.85 billion market cap and SIRI has a $5.4 billion market cap.

Would both networks maintain all of their programming on every channel? Or would the strongest programs be migrated to the most robust platform? Most likely a long-haul migration to the strongest and most stable platform would result with other satellites either set up for sale or geared toward other uses and product offerings not currently in development. Sprint already has ties to Sirius, and Cingular already has ties to XM. We already know that the music industry is looking at trying to force both companies to pay more in royalties as well. Sirius has the Stiletto and XM has the XM Xpress or XM2go versions, and both are working on video capabilities. We also have what GM has said will be 1.8 million cars with XM factory installed over the course of 2007 and Honda with what will be some 650,000 XM installed cars yesterday. Until we get past the holiday season we will not get any solid and goal-oriented 2007 projected subscriber add-ons from each company, but that is a guess on the timing based on the companies and based on industry forecasting.

Based on SEC filings, company documents, and Wall Street analysis, here is what I figure the two companies would look like as one entity as of the end of 2006:

The subscriber base of the two companies together would be roughly 7.8 million from XM. and 6.9 million from Sirius. There is probably almost no overlap between the customer bases, so the new company would probably start with about 14.5 million subscribers. If you look later in the article you probably won't get any solid "guestimates" out of the subscriber bases for the end of 2007 until after the end of the holidays.

Based on Q3 numbers and Wall St. projections, Sirius should have about $200 million in revenue in Q4 (Q3 was $167 million) to add to XM's $290 million (Q3 was $240 million). So, the revenue base going into 2007 would be about $500 million.

Sirius has $323 million in costs in Q3 and XM had $301 million. However, some of those costs could be consolidated from the potential total of $625 million. Customer billing at Sirius runs about $15 million a quarter. At XM, the number is $27 million. The combined companies can probably take out $10 million a quarter. Sales, marketing, and customer acquisition at Sirius is almost $130 million. At XM, the number is about $90 million. Total costs for marketing and acquisition could probably be cut $75 million.

Sirius has general and administrative plus engineering costs of $56 million a quarter. XM has $30 million in costs on these items. The total number based on lay-offs and consolidation could probably be dripped to $65 million, a savings of about $30 million.

Before programming costs, overall expense could probably be driven down by $115 million, which would leave the combined entity with a nominal loss. But, programming costs are the largest expense at both companies. Sirius spent $80 million in the last quarter and XM spent almost $40 million. Sirius has 133 channels. XM has 170. Many of he programming contracts are long-term and extend out several years. Because of overlaps on current station deals, a combined company could drive down programming costs even after the added programming expenses in 2007. Any savings in this area in the combined company would make the entity profitable or at least close to profitable on a GAAP basis. It should be noted that depreciation and amortization at Sirius is about $28 million. At XM it is running about $43 million a quarter.

The balance sheets represent a huge problem. Sirius has almost $1.1 billion in long-term debt. At XM that number is over $1.3 billion. Sirius has cash and securities of $350 million. XM has $285 million. So, combined debt would be $2.4 billion against about $600 million in cash. Payables and accrued expenses of the combined company would be over $500 million. To have a significant value to shareholders, the combined business would have to pay down at least $200 million in debt per year. None of the debt is due until 2009, but the majority is due by 2013. The combined company would be able to partially use cash on hand and could go to the capital markets with a new debt issue with the sole purpose of refinancing that amount due in 2009 (and with convertible debt if they were smart and/or able).

If revenue growth can continue at 10% quarter over previous quarter and expense growth can be held to 5%.

Sirius' CFO speaks tomorrow at 11:00AM at the UBS Global Media Conference and CEO Mel Karmazin speaks at 12:30 PM at the Credit Suisse Media and Telecom Week Conference. XM Satellite's Chairman Gary Parsons speaks tomorrow at the UBS Global Media & Communications Conference at 2:30PM EST and then again at the Credit Suisse Media and Telecom Week Conference on Thursday at 9:40AM EST

If we are going to hear anything out of XM Satellite on its guidance for the quarter it should theoretically be within the next 40 hours or so because XM's is presenting Wednesday and Thursday. Once again, this is more of a viewpoint of what a combined company would resemble rather than a forecast of a Sirius-XM tie-up.

By Douglas McIntyre and Jon Ogg of 24/7 Wall St
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Old 12-11-2006, 08:44 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
The subscriber base of the two companies together would be roughly 7.8 million from XM. and 6.9 million from Sirius. There is probably almost no overlap between the customer bases, so the new company would probably start with about 14.5 million subscribers.
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Old 12-11-2006, 11:16 AM   #30
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That before any meger would happen the company being bought would file bankruptcy to get out of bad contracts<oprah, NFL or what ever> ala the Airline industry.
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