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Old 12-11-2006, 11:33 AM   #31
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That before any meger would happen the company being bought would file bankruptcy to get out of bad contracts<oprah, NFL or what ever> ala the Airline industry.
You seem to have left out the baddest of the bad contracts -- Howard stern.
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Old 12-11-2006, 11:44 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
You seem to have left out the baddest of the bad contracts -- Howard stern.
Says you!
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Old 12-12-2006, 12:21 PM   #33
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Says you!
Yes, says me and anyone who is paying attention - you cant make a $600 million investment to bring a couple million subscribers and call it a sensible deal and it sure looks now that stern has just about fizzled - theyve reduced guidance and are still spending like drunken sailors to try and get even to the bottom of it. the next 4 yrs is all about trying to pay the bill.

ps - Dab - is it your function here to post some snide remark in response to everything I post? if you dont have anything substantive to say why not just not say it? while you may not agree with me remarks like yours do nothing to improve the dialog here.
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Old 12-12-2006, 12:25 PM   #34
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"if you dont have anything substantive to say why not just not say it? while you may not agree with me remarks like yours do nothing to improve the dialog here."

Man, you got nothing...which is EXACTLY why you get "nothing" in return. Just the same ol point that has ZERO feet to stand on.

ZERO.

$50mil for Oprah is the WORST DEAL EVER.

It's all about subscriptions which stern is responsible for. If they have money issues it's NOT due to Stern. It's everything BUT stern.
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Old 12-12-2006, 02:48 PM   #35
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It's all about subscriptions which stern is responsible for. If they have money issues it's NOT due to Stern. It's everything BUT stern.
$600 Million (or more more) and if howrard brings 2m subs thats $300/sub and it is looking like he cant even bring that many.

their money issues are partly due to stern and partly due to other bad business decisions.
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Old 12-12-2006, 03:17 PM   #36
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Well, as long as we are making numbers up, I read that Howard Stern's contract is actually worth $20 trillion. With an option for a bajillion-jillion.
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Old 12-12-2006, 03:20 PM   #37
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I thought if he stayed for the full 5 years he gets a 1/2 zillion.

"$600 Million (or more more) and if howrard brings 2m subs thats $300/sub and it is looking like he cant even bring that many."

OH NOW I GET IT.

What the hell is wrong with you? too much lead paint as a kid?
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Old 12-12-2006, 03:31 PM   #38
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No the zillion clause kicks in if he brings in 1,500 subscribers. That is like one third of a jillion per new subscriber. For shame Sirius. For shame indeed. Sirius r teh Suxxiz0rz!!!1
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Old 12-12-2006, 04:26 PM   #39
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Well, as long as we are making numbers up
Making #s up? WTF? The deal is for $610 million minimum ($400m cash, 210M stock) and thats before he even showed up for work at siri.

since siri just registered another 40m shrs it would seem likely howard is getting ready to have another little injection of siri shareholders money, dont you think?

there is nothing made up about the #s i wrote.
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Old 12-12-2006, 04:44 PM   #40
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FR,

My respect for your opinion would be diminshed if I believed that you really believe that Stern was bad in any way, shape or form for Sirius.

I suspect you like getting a rise from people, but it easier debating the Genius of George Bush than to suggest what you're suggesting.

WB
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Old 12-12-2006, 05:13 PM   #41
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My respect for your opinion would be diminshed if I believed that you really believe that Stern was bad in any way, shape or form for Sirius.
hate to lose your respect, but yes, stern was very bad for siri.

yes it helped them get through last yr but has left them with a really difficult situation now as he isnt adding large #s of subs now as is evidence by the cut in guidance and the big spending to maybe just hit the lower end of the reduced guidance range.

over 5 yrs stern will reduce their contribution margin by about 10% points and that is _IF_ they hit their #s which now seems not very likely greatly increasing the probabiliyt that siri will not be able to reach a point where they can sustain operations w/o substantial addl funding.

joe clayton rolled the dice on stern and it looked like he might come thru there for a couple of qtrs. but today it is starting to look like a real stinky decision.

i dont really expect anyone here to agree with me - right now. i do think a couple yrs from now it will be clear i was right even to the most dedicated siri/stern supporters.
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Old 12-12-2006, 05:44 PM   #42
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See you have this strange way of NOT GETTING IT.

BEFORE STERN, NO REVENUE INCREASE IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE FOR SIRIUS.

Where did all these subscriptions come from sir????? Good marketing? Good products? Martha Stewart?

CLEARLY NOT.

See, if you don't INVEST in anything, you don't have anything.

They invest in stern, their subscriptions are to 6million in about 18months.

If they passed on Stern and he, say, retired, they'd have invested in WHAT?

CAR RACING??? UNCLE BRUCIE?

GIMMIE A BREAK.

Stop living in GWB's MONEY FOR NOTHING economy. IT DOESN'T WORK.
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Old 12-13-2006, 08:40 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
hate to lose your respect, but yes, stern was very bad for siri.

yes it helped them get through last yr but has left them with a really difficult situation now as he isn't adding large #s of subs now as is evidence by the cut in guidance and the big spending to maybe just hit the lower end of the reduced guidance range.

over 5 yrs stern will reduce their contribution margin by about 10% points and that is _IF_ they hit their #s which now seems not very likely greatly increasing the probabiliyt that siri will not be able to reach a point where they can sustain operations w/o substantial addl funding.

joe clayton rolled the dice on stern and it looked like he might come thru there for a couple of qtrs. but today it is starting to look like a real stinky decision.

i dont really expect anyone here to agree with me - right now. i do think a couple yrs from now it will be clear i was right even to the most dedicated siri/stern supporters.


Now see, a little dialog and people usually come together. Too bad Bush can't absorb that concept and stabilize the world and bring some peace to the earth where he has instead scattered hatred. So much for right-wingers with a bible in their hand, and a gun under their belt.

I do agree with you that longer term Stern may be shown to be an error. I also agree that his staying power is not what I would have paid 100 million annually for. I further agree that it is/was a risky idea to hang your "brand" on one person.

Where we may differ is that " at the time " of the decision, there was not better decision. Had XM hired Stern, it would have been point, game, match for them. Letting him slip away has to haunt Panero till his dying day. It would me anyhow.

Stern was the penicillin that Sirius needed at that time. Now they need another shot of something to gain at least 50% of forward/future OEM sales or the slaughter to the stock ( as we've seen ) will continue.

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Old 12-15-2006, 01:19 PM   #44
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Default Lehman Ponders Pay-Radio Deal

Lehman Ponders Pay-Radio Deal

By TSC Staff
12/15/2006 12:49 PM EST


A merger of XM Satellite Radio might become more likely if fundamental growth for the pay-radio industry continues to disappoint, Lehman Brothers believes.

The firm said in a research report that if the two were to merge, they could save $1.3 billion a year. A union would probably be a net positive for customers but a negative for content suppliers and equipment partners because the joined company would have more negotiating leverage.

Lehman said XM would be worth $45 a share if it was the beneficiary of all of the efficiencies and savings. If all the synergies were allocated to Sirius, it would be worth $9.50 a share.
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Old 12-15-2006, 01:38 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
Making #s up? WTF? The deal is for $610 million minimum ($400m cash, 210M stock) and thats before he even showed up for work at siri.

since siri just registered another 40m shrs it would seem likely howard is getting ready to have another little injection of siri shareholders money, dont you think?

there is nothing made up about the #s i wrote.
Considering your first sentence is wrong I'll just go ahead and ignore the rest.

Here, maybe this will help you get off the O&A/XM Kool Aid:

http://satellitestandard.blogspot.co...tern-deal.html

Last edited by badmotherfarker; 12-15-2006 at 01:45 PM..
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