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Old 12-15-2006, 02:02 PM   #46
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Old 12-16-2006, 06:39 AM   #47
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Because Stern has been out doing some serious publicity seeking, we'll all find out the drawing power that he still has (or doesn't have) when December retail sales figures are in. If there isn't a nice blip upwards from the dismal November figures, then the Stern-effect is finished. But if the downwards tide is turned, Stern is still the king.
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Old 12-16-2006, 09:33 AM   #48
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The "Stern Effect" really doesn't matter anymore at this point. Sirius has already picked up enough subscribers to be succeed in the long run. All they have to do now is continue offering high quality programming and the they will grow into the future. People now see the potential satellite radio offers; that was what Stern brought to the table.

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Old 12-16-2006, 10:21 AM   #49
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The "Stern Effect" really doesn't matter anymore at this point. Sirius has already picked up enough subscribers to be sucessful in the long run.
where do you get this stuff? siri is set to report a loss of well over a billion dollars this year (more than 1.1 bill, and based on current spending levels it would not be surprising to see them come in over 1.2 bill).
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Old 12-16-2006, 10:26 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
where do you get this stuff? siri is set to report a loss of well over a billion dollars this year (more than 1.1 bill, and based on current spending levels it would not be surprising to see them come in over 1.2 bill).
They've paid for most of their infrastructure, expenditures will be much lower next year.
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Old 12-16-2006, 12:34 PM   #51
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They've paid for most of their infrastructure, expenditures will be much lower next year.
'infrastructure' is depreciable property and those expenses are relatively constant throughout the life of the 'infrastructure' - although they are most definitely adding more 'infrastructure' in the form of an additional satellite and more repeaters. 'infrastructure' expenses will not change substantially in '07 vs. '06.

so why are they losing so much?

1. howard stern - expenses for pmts to stern amt to over $300 million
2. cpga - over $200 per gross addition.
3. other content items - nfl, nba, ncaa, music royalties, etc.

stern cost ought to go down next yr, but this addl 40m shrs is cause for concern -- if they give a bunch of those to stern (i dont think they will but cant understand why they registered them if not) they will lose close to a billion again nxt yr.

but given the reliance on retail it is hard to see how cpga comes down in 07 if retail is truly drying up.
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Old 12-16-2006, 03:11 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
'infrastructure' is depreciable property and those expenses are relatively constant throughout the life of the 'infrastructure' - although they are most definitely adding more 'infrastructure' in the form of an additional satellite and more repeaters. 'infrastructure' expenses will not change substantially in '07 vs. '06.

so why are they losing so much?

1. howard stern - expenses for pmts to stern amt to over $300 million
2. cpga - over $200 per gross addition.
3. other content items - nfl, nba, ncaa, music royalties, etc.

stern cost ought to go down next yr, but this addl 40m shrs is cause for concern -- if they give a bunch of those to stern (i dont think they will but cant understand why they registered them if not) they will lose close to a billion again nxt yr.

but given the reliance on retail it is hard to see how cpga comes down in 07 if retail is truly drying up.
You trying to tell me that they're going to have to buy a new satellite every year like the did this year? Also, they paid off a huge chunk of Howard's 5 year deal this year- the cost for Howard goes down from here on out.
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Old 12-16-2006, 03:19 PM   #53
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You trying to tell me that they're going to have to buy a new satellite every year like the did this year?
satellites are depreciated over their estimatd useful lives (in siris case, either 13 or 15 yrs depending on which ones your talking about). not one penny of the new one (to be launched in 08) is expensed in 06 and in fact will not be until it is actually 'in service'.

Quote:
Also, they paid off a huge chunk of Howard's 5 year deal this year- the cost for Howard goes down from here on out.
it should but the fact is we dont know if it does. the terms of the contract are not announced and we just dont know whether there will be another one in jan. i didnt think so until they registered the 40m shrs last week. but it is important to remember that there is also a separate subscriber bounty and rev shr for stern so we really have no idea just how expensive the contract is for now - all we know for sure is that there is at least 100m/y to be paid over the coming 4 yrs and yes that _would_ be less then th is yr. otoh, there is nascar which will add another 20m/y to replace it.

the big plus for 07 is that siri has close to 6m subs at the beginning of the yr. but even at that theyll still lose 800m or more in 07 as well as have to borrow more $$$ (or sell stock).
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Old 12-16-2006, 03:34 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
satellites are depreciated over their estimatd useful lives (in siris case, either 13 or 15 yrs depending on which ones your talking about). not one penny of the new one (to be launched in 08) is expensed in 06 and in fact will not be until it is actually 'in service'.



it should but the fact is we dont know if it does. the terms of the contract are not announced and we just dont know whether there will be another one in jan. i didnt think so until they registered the 40m shrs last week. but it is important to remember that there is also a separate subscriber bounty and rev shr for stern so we really have no idea just how expensive the contract is for now - all we know for sure is that there is at least 100m/y to be paid over the coming 4 yrs and yes that _would_ be less then th is yr. otoh, there is nascar which will add another 20m/y to replace it.

the big plus for 07 is that siri has close to 6m subs at the beginning of the yr. but even at that theyll still lose 800m or more in 07 as well as have to borrow more $$$ (or sell stock).
The reason people don't like you here is because you are stating bullshit "facts". Fact is, Sirius does NOT have to buy a new satellite every year, like they did this year. Fact is, many parts of Howard's contract are very public, especially that which has included the stock payments. That stock "bonus" he got wasn't a bonus at all, it was an accelerated payment and part of the $500 million over 5 years. Beyond that, Sirius stated in the 1Q conference call that they were intentionally paying off a large chunk of Stern's contract this year because they just wanted to take one big hit initially. Go read some articles about satellite radio if you want to sit here and spew your XM-biased opinions.
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Old 12-16-2006, 06:39 PM   #55
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The reason people don't like you here is because you are stating bullshit "facts". Fact is, Sirius does NOT have to buy a new satellite every year, like they did this year.
I don't care whether people like me or not. But fact is, had they "bought a new satellite" [they didn't] not one cent of that money would be reflected as expense until said satellite was placed in service. that you dont know this, i simply cannot help.

Quote:
Fact is, many parts of Howard's contract are very public, especially that which has included the stock payments. That stock "bonus" he got wasn't a bonus at all, it was an accelerated payment and part of the $500 million over 5 years.
that "bonus" was a "bonus" which he was entitled to solely because certain 'subscriber targets' were reached. had those targets not been reached, the contract would still have been for $500m. Since he received the "bonus", he got $110m in stock he otherwise would not have received plus an earlier pmt of $100M than he otherwise was entitled to. No part of sterns contract has been made public, other than via 8ks filed at the time required disclosures have been paid. we know that he will receive revenue shr and subscriber bounty pmts on subs deemed 'directly attributable' to stern.

Quote:
Beyond that, Sirius stated in the 1Q conference call that they were intentionally paying off a large chunk of Stern's contract this year because they just wanted to take one big hit initially. Go read some articles about satellite radio if you want to sit here and spew your XM-biased opinions.
there was nothing "optional" about what siri paid however the contract was structured carefullly to avoid cash pmts in 07 so they could claim cfbe had been reached even though the definition was tenuous at best. cfbe is easy to do when youre paying your biggest expenses with shares.

i dont need to read "articles" because i make it my business to read official documents, not some amateur reporters interpretation of the official documents. if you did the same you would probably under stand more about the subject.
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Old 12-17-2006, 05:04 AM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
I don't care whether people like me or not. But fact is, had they "bought a new satellite" [they didn't] not one cent of that money would be reflected as expense until said satellite was placed in service. that you dont know this, i simply cannot help.



that "bonus" was a "bonus" which he was entitled to solely because certain 'subscriber targets' were reached. had those targets not been reached, the contract would still have been for $500m. Since he received the "bonus", he got $110m in stock he otherwise would not have received plus an earlier pmt of $100M than he otherwise was entitled to. No part of sterns contract has been made public, other than via 8ks filed at the time required disclosures have been paid. we know that he will receive revenue shr and subscriber bounty pmts on subs deemed 'directly attributable' to stern.



there was nothing "optional" about what siri paid however the contract was structured carefullly to avoid cash pmts in 07 so they could claim cfbe had been reached even though the definition was tenuous at best. cfbe is easy to do when youre paying your biggest expenses with shares.

i dont need to read "articles" because i make it my business to read official documents, not some amateur reporters interpretation of the official documents. if you did the same you would probably under stand more about the subject.
Ok, I'm done even trying with you. You've been drinking way too much Kool Aid.
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Old 12-17-2006, 10:10 AM   #57
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Ok, I'm done even trying with you.
i dont blame you for giving up. you havent been right about anything yet.

if i could make one suggestion for you -- you might develop a better understanding of these subjects if you would avoid the ssg blog site. that guy is like you, ie, understands little about these subjects, and i believe you are actually getting more confused by reading that blog.

you have come here claiming that siris expenses are affected by a satellite that hasnt even been bought, paid-for, or launched this year (have no idea where you got this idea). you have come here claiming that the 32M shrs of siri stock given to stern in jan were not a bonus. they were, for the most part. you have eaten up that blogs nonsense about sterns contract and that guy does not know anymore about it then you do. and if you think the $610 mill is the end of the deal it is you drinking the coolaid.

there is nothing pro-xmsr or anti-siri in my post. i am simply stating the facts which is what i have done here since i came here.
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Old 12-17-2006, 10:40 AM   #58
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i dont blame you for giving up. you havent been right about anything yet.

if i could make one suggestion for you -- you might develop a better understanding of these subjects if you would avoid the ssg blog site. that guy is like you, ie, understands little about these subjects, and i believe you are actually getting more confused by reading that blog.

you have come here claiming that siris expenses are affected by a satellite that hasnt even been bought, paid-for, or launched this year (have no idea where you got this idea). you have come here claiming that the 32M shrs of siri stock given to stern in jan were not a bonus. they were, for the most part. you have eaten up that blogs nonsense about sterns contract and that guy does not know anymore about it then you do. and if you think the $610 mill is the end of the deal it is you drinking the coolaid.

there is nothing pro-xmsr or anti-siri in my post. i am simply stating the facts which is what i have done here since i came here.
http://satellitestandard.blogspot.co...tern-deal.html
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Old 12-17-2006, 01:10 PM   #59
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there is nothing pro-xmsr or anti-siri in my post. i am simply stating the facts which is what i have done here since i came here.
Care to provide us real documentation and evidence to support your so called facts? The way I see it, right now you are doing what you always have done, speculate with no solid evidence. Time to put up or shut up!
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Old 12-17-2006, 01:23 PM   #60
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Care to provide us real documentation and evidence to support your so called facts? The way I see it, right now you are doing what you always have done, speculate with no solid evidence. Time to put up or shut up!
I've posted that same article stating that the stock "bonus" he keeps talking about wasn't a bonus at all 3 times now and he's yet to read it. I don't think it's "facts" that he's interested in.
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