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Old 11-27-2006, 02:42 PM   #1
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Default Jacoby at it again

He is now claiming both Sirius and XM sales will be down this year at retail. For one thing, it's far too early to even begin to have any reliable studies for the season. This most likely will be true concerning XM, but from everything I've seen so far, Sirius will continue at record pace, and continue to beat expectations.
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Old 11-27-2006, 03:48 PM   #2
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This most likely will be true concerning XM, but from everything I've seen so far, Sirius will continue at record pace, and continue to beat expectations.
everything youve seen, huh?

what have you seen? from everything ive seen xmsr and siri neither one is selling many receivers now.

xmsr has at least set its objective at a reasonable level. it is pretty hard to see how siri can get there from here without a huge spending campaign which will leave it in pretty serious cash trouble.
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Old 11-27-2006, 04:56 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazzar
He is now claiming both Sirius and XM sales will be down this year at retail. For one thing, it's far too early to even begin to have any reliable studies for the season. This most likely will be true concerning XM, but from everything I've seen so far, Sirius will continue at record pace, and continue to beat expectations.
I just read the Forbes piece where he was quoted. What an XM toady.
He should be forced to disclose his companies relationship with XM.
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Old 11-27-2006, 05:06 PM   #4
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Look, I know people want to jump a guy every time he makes a slight on Sirius. Fine. Jacoby isn't paid to be stupid, no matter how much people want to believe otherwise.

Right now, what we have to go on is the Bridge's ratings and what NPD reports at retail. Right now, NPD reported a very soft October, which for the 4th quarter is not killer since most sales are in November/December. And the Bridge, for now, doesn't have Sirius making 6.3 million. It also doesn't have XM making it's target either.

I can't blame Jacoby for saying the picture doesn't look great, because it doesn't. The news for now, though, is the picture is incomplete.
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Old 11-27-2006, 05:12 PM   #5
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NASCAR is being highly underated, and will be HUGE for Sirius.

Last edited by hazzar; 11-27-2006 at 05:14 PM..
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Old 11-27-2006, 09:56 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unoriginal
Look, I know people want to jump a guy every time he makes a slight on Sirius. Fine. Jacoby isn't paid to be stupid, no matter how much people want to believe otherwise.

Right now, what we have to go on is the Bridge's ratings and what NPD reports at retail. Right now, NPD reported a very soft October, which for the 4th quarter is not killer since most sales are in November/December. And the Bridge, for now, doesn't have Sirius making 6.3 million. It also doesn't have XM making it's target either.

I can't blame Jacoby for saying the picture doesn't look great, because it doesn't. The news for now, though, is the picture is incomplete.
Bridge ratings are never close. That is why they go back and change them after companies report.....
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Old 11-27-2006, 10:06 PM   #7
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People on this board may not like Jacoby but so far he has been the only analyst with the balls to downgrade Sirius when it was at $9 and people here were talking about the mid teens calling Jacoby an idiot for his $4-5 price target.

Guess who was right.

Sales are softening and when your already heavily inflated / over issued stock is depending on stellar sales growth to support your current price seeing any form of softening is not a good thing.

I don't think many on this board understand that Sirius already has a pretty hefty price premium (meaning its valued much higher than XM) and that such a premium gap is not really justified, much less have it increase further.


BTW I'm a dual sub before some idiot claims I'm a Sirius basher or whatever. IF you read my post history you'll see I've called Sirius pretty damn well over the past year and a half.
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Old 11-27-2006, 11:08 PM   #8
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But come on, Jacoby is clearly biased against Sirius. Furthermore, before you crown him as the King of Truth, please check his buy ratings on XM from $45 all the way down to $9. It would be one thing if he just preferred XM, but he seems to be a shill. He has never said anything positive about Sirius.
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Old 11-28-2006, 12:14 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NFL-Fan
But come on, Jacoby is clearly biased against Sirius. Furthermore, before you crown him as the King of Truth, please check his buy ratings on XM from $45 all the way down to $9. It would be one thing if he just preferred XM, but he seems to be a shill. He has never said anything positive about Sirius.

I haven't looked recently but his buy rating on XM has a price target of around $20 or so. It takes a lot more guts to say a stock will dive > 50% than it does to say it will go up in the future. Buy ratings are not for short term investors, saying a stock will go down significantly when its in the middle of a % wise large upswing is not only ballzy but pretty good when its dead on target.

So in essence I cut the guy some slack. He does like XM over Sirius and there are some pretty compelling reasons for that case. Not to say Sirius is junk or anything because I am not making that case, I'm just saying the guy has some good points and if people would take the blinders off and stop investing with their balls and use their brains a bit they might be able to see that. Like any analyst you have to cut through some BS to get to the good stuff.

There are some very serious issues with the entire Sat rad industry and its easy when we as users fall in love with a product to discount the negative and only focus on the positive.
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Old 11-28-2006, 12:48 AM   #10
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I have said all along that I was concerned about SIRIUS not meeting their year end subscriber goals. But man after XM reduced theirs what twice now and if they don't make it, it will certainly appear this industry in in trouble. I am not going to get into the SIRIUS/XM stuff, because only time will tell where that ends up. But one thing for sure if both companies miss their year end goals this won't be a good thing.
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Old 11-28-2006, 09:49 AM   #11
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Quote:
But come on, Jacoby is clearly biased against Sirius.
He is biased against siri just because he believes xmsr is a better investment and didnt get sucked into the stern-o-rama hype?

the other poster is right -- jacoby has called it the way he has seen it and has been right on about siri and continues to get it right about xmsr. xmsr has been held down by some shortterm events that mean nothing in the longterm analysis of the stocks value and jacoby is about the only one that hasnt collapsed under the pressure.
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Old 11-28-2006, 09:52 AM   #12
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But man after XM reduced theirs what twice now and if they don't make it, it will certainly appear this industry in in trouble.
it is hard to envision xmsr not exceeding its guidance of 7.7 at this point, and 8 would be my bet.

while i never thought siri would make the 6.3 im starting to get the idea they arent even going to be close to that now.
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Old 11-28-2006, 10:42 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
He is biased against siri just because he believes xmsr is a better investment and didnt get sucked into the stern-o-rama hype?

the other poster is right -- jacoby has called it the way he has seen it and has been right on about siri and continues to get it right about xmsr. xmsr has been held down by some shortterm events that mean nothing in the longterm analysis of the stocks value and jacoby is about the only one that hasnt collapsed under the pressure.
Did he predict XM's troubles back in January? XM has lowered guidance twice (while Sirius- for some reason- raised guidance once), and their stock went down miserably as a result. He badmouthed Sirius all year long, but by any measure, Sirius had a better year than XM. Yet he kept the buy on XM through the whole debacle of a year for them, sticking up for them in their FCC/FM modulator problem (remember when he said the whole problem would be fixed by a 10 cent piece of plastic on the antennae? No one believed that the FCC would go along with such a solution, since it could so easily be removed, but he reports - problem solved for 10 cents).

For all those who have said he is right about Sirius- what has he been right about? That Sirius would hit every guidance they have set? Now, I know Sirius looks like it won't hit guidance this quarter, and they may not, but if they do, will you at least call Jacoby out on it then?

Perhaps you believe he is right about the industry moving away from retail and that OEM will now rule, and that benefits XM. The problem with that argument, is Sirius has garnered more net subscribers from OEM the last two quarters than XM. Why is that? Jacoby never seems to mention that point.
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Old 11-28-2006, 11:23 AM   #14
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He badmouthed Sirius all year long, but by any measure, Sirius had a better year than XM.
Huh? not by the one measure that counts - net income. siri is set to lose way over a billion dols and xmsr looks to be positioned to beat for the full yr.

but it looks that you are missing the point about jacoby. of all the analysts covering the industry he presents the most rational longterm view which is that xmsr has the better position wrt oems and that is what is going to matter in the longrun.

siri has paid too much for some content items like stern and it is turning out that the subs arent going to be pulled in (longterm) by content but more important by the deals with oems like toyota honda & nissan where xmsr has them locked up.

so siri is left with bloated content costs as retail sales tank but xmsr is in a stronger position in this area.

i dont know for sure but i think jacoby has this one right.
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Old 11-29-2006, 06:07 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unoriginal
Look, I know people want to jump a guy every time he makes a slight on Sirius. Fine. Jacoby isn't paid to be stupid, no matter how much people want to believe otherwise.

Right now, what we have to go on is the Bridge's ratings and what NPD reports at retail. Right now, NPD reported a very soft October, which for the 4th quarter is not killer since most sales are in November/December. And the Bridge, for now, doesn't have Sirius making 6.3 million. It also doesn't have XM making it's target either.

I can't blame Jacoby for saying the picture doesn't look great, because it doesn't. The news for now, though, is the picture is incomplete.
-------------------

Fuck Jacoby. He's a weasel.

Not for his opinion, but that his opinion can be bought.
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