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Old 11-30-2006, 07:14 PM   #1
M4
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Post Karmazin: Sirius holiday sales are "strong," but "difficult" compared to last year

Superstar CEO Mel Karmazin said on Thursday that Sirius' holiday sales were strong, but might fall short of last year's subscriptions.

"Business is very strong, very good," Karmazin told the Reuters Media Summit in New York. But he added: "We have a very difficult comparison this fourth quarter."

"Assuming that we have a very good last 10 days, then we'll be just fine," Karmazin said. Last year Sirius signed up around 500,000 new subscribers in a 10 day period.

"If in fact, God forbid, we don't, December will go from being what we hope it will be, which will be the very best month in our history, to the second-best month. But no matter what, it's amazingly strong."

So even Mel is hinting that we're not going to make guidance. If we don't make 6.3 mil, (which I kinda doubt that we will -mostly cause of the shitty FM transmitters) this sucker will tank fast. JMO.
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Old 11-30-2006, 08:14 PM   #2
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The low stock price discounted at just over $4 and change, already reflects the fact we might not quite make guidance. No big deal.
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Old 11-30-2006, 08:35 PM   #3
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Quote:
The low stock price discounted at just over $4 and change, already reflects the fact we might not quite make guidance. No big deal.
where did you get that idea?
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Old 11-30-2006, 08:43 PM   #4
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It means that if the investing public believed that we would easily meet the estimated guidance, this stock would be at $6.00 by now.
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Old 11-30-2006, 08:52 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazzar
The low stock price discounted at just over $4 and change, already reflects the fact we might not quite make guidance. No big deal.
Doubt it. If we don't have 6.3 mil, or CFBE, or a merger, what makes you think we will stay in the $4 range? Is it the shorts, lol. If we don't have any positive news and only have bad news, SIRI just wont stay at $4, why would it?
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Old 12-01-2006, 06:00 AM   #6
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Meeting or not meeting guidance is hardly going to affect the stock by 50%, as a $6 price would imply. It would be safest to assume that investors are already considering the slowing increase in subscribers and what that implies for the likely future shape of the growth curve.

To significantly change the stock you need a change in the expected curve. That could come from updated sales figures, but those aren't going to change all that much. The growth curve isn't going to suddenly rocket upwards on its own.

To get anything like a 50% increase would take new information:

new programming (but what could be a Stern II in its effect in drawing new listeners?),

new hardware (is the current hardware so bad?),

new OEM deals (results of current OEM deals don't make it sound like manufacturers are going to be tripping over themselves to make satellite standard in every car),

new services (I don't think a couple of low-quality video channels will have that much effect),

or, yes, a merger (would a merged company be that much more profitable? Slowing sales show you can't increase subscriber prices too much).

So here's a safe prediction that applies to any stock in the world: not much change. Until, of course, there is change!
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Old 12-01-2006, 06:54 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pto
To get anything like a 50% increase would take new information:

new programming (but what could be a Stern II in its effect in drawing new listeners?),
People have discounted it, but NASCAR may draw big this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pto
new hardware (is the current hardware so bad?),
Stiletto... I have one, I love it, but they really aren't marketing it...

I don't think they will make 6.3Mil, but they will be close... I think the market is more interested in CFBE..
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Old 12-01-2006, 09:16 AM   #8
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Quote:
It means that if the investing public believed that we would easily meet the estimated guidance, this stock would be at $6.00 by now.
Right. or $15.

I'd hate to know where you came up with that $6 figure.
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Old 12-01-2006, 03:45 PM   #9
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What is guidence for SAC?
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Old 12-04-2006, 08:51 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazzar
The low stock price discounted at just over $4 and change, already reflects the fact we might not quite make guidance. No big deal.
You arent discounted when your valued 35% higher than your competitor and you have a market cap of $6B with no net revenue.

I dont think missing Q4 guidance is that big of a deal however I dont think the stock is discounted by any means.
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Old 12-05-2006, 11:57 PM   #11
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Default christmas sales

Siri just dropped by .32 today to 3.85 but XM also dropped by .29.
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