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Old 12-04-2006, 07:26 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superman07
Not to burst any bubbles, but that's not the best news. In fact, I would says it's neutral.

If you do some math you'll see that those numbers put them *both* at around 70% of what their Q4 2005 figures where (give or take a few %).

...I'm actually hoping that the price dips a little due to this news and then they in fact manage to squeak out 6.3+. Probably as doubtful as Pluto becoming a planet again anytime soon, but still I'm hopeful.
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Old 12-04-2006, 07:35 PM   #17
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Still kicking Xm's ass quarter after quarter by 20-30%.
So is this the objective research you took away from two piles of 10Qs?

Sirius has spent hugely on content (remember, NASCAR was going to be huge and there is a stern effect that continues) yet xmsr continues to add more gross subs than siri does and apparently the difference for Q4 will be very high.

if you calculate churn on xmsrs bigger subscriber base vs. siris, you see about a 50-50 split but we need to see if xmsr will reiterate or not tomorrow.

only a month ago mel was increasing guidance and now a cut like this a month latter?
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Old 12-04-2006, 07:57 PM   #18
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this is perfect, there goes the chart (happend almost the same date last year too!). so I guess we're going to end the year at a little over 6 million subs. I really think the decline in subs is because of the shitty FM transmitters in the radios. nobody feels like hardwiring this crap, including myself.

so I wonder how 2007 is going to go now that satrad is on the decline. are we still on for cfbe?
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Old 12-04-2006, 08:15 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
So is this the objective research you took away from two piles of 10Qs?

Sirius has spent hugely on content (remember, NASCAR was going to be huge and there is a stern effect that continues) yet xmsr continues to add more gross subs than siri does and apparently the difference for Q4 will be very high.

if you calculate churn on xmsrs bigger subscriber base vs. siris, you see about a 50-50 split but we need to see if xmsr will reiterate or not tomorrow.

only a month ago mel was increasing guidance and now a cut like this a month latter?
In one of my favorite movies, Grumpy Old Men, there is a line ..." Wish in one hand and crap in the other, tell me which one gets filled first " .

That pretty much sums up your positions it seems. You would like to fall back on gross subs which is tantamount to " wishing" .

When ( or IF ) XM nets more subs than Siri in a quarter, then, and only then Sir, do you have something to pipe up about. Until then, get to crapping.
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Old 12-04-2006, 08:50 PM   #20
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Quote:
That pretty much sums up your positions it seems. You would like to fall back on gross subs which is tantamount to " wishing" .

When ( or IF ) XM nets more subs than Siri in a quarter, then, and only then Sir, do you have something to pipe up about. Until then, get to crapping.
you be rationalizing, dude.
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Old 12-04-2006, 08:53 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superman07
Not to burst any bubbles, but that's not the best news. In fact, I would says it's neutral.

If you do some math you'll see that those numbers put them *both* at around 70% of what their Q4 2005 figures where (give or take a few %).

...I'm actually hoping that the price dips a little due to this news and then they in fact manage to squeak out 6.3+. Probably as doubtful as Pluto becoming a planet again anytime soon, but still I'm hopeful.
You never know....but I doubt it too. I do expect them to be closer to 6.1 million than 5.9 million. Mel is (usually) conservative in his guidance, and he certainly wouldn't want to miss this guidance after lowering it. I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 6.2, honestly...

(and if that occurs, you have to wonder why Mel felt compelled to raise guidance just two quarters ago...)

Last edited by NFL-Fan; 12-04-2006 at 08:56 PM..
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Old 12-04-2006, 09:04 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NFL-Fan
(and if that occurs, you have to wonder why Mel felt compelled to raise guidance just two quarters ago...)
well that was before the fcc crippled the fm transmitters which has caused many returns/cancelled subs.
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Old 12-04-2006, 10:22 PM   #23
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From the press release announcing the guidance change:

"While strong, this year's retail sales results since the Thanksgiving weekend have not been at the pace we had anticipated."

You know, somebody (an analyst I believe) a week ago suggested that retail sales would be slow this holiday season. But he clearly didn't know what he was talking about.

Being snarky aside... no, this isn't good news, but with the reiteration of free cash flow (which I thought based on previous statements was dependent on making 6.3), I don't think this news will be a stock killer. It WILL go down tomorrow, and probably for the remainder of the week. After that remains up in the air.

I expect 6 million and change to be the final number (6.05-6.07 million).
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Old 12-04-2006, 11:14 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M4
well that was before the fcc crippled the fm transmitters which has caused many returns/cancelled subs.

Actually demand has been softening for a good bit now and people here seemed to think Sirius would be immune or that the Holiday season would be the savior. Naturally that was wishful thinking and both XM and Sirius have some really big problems on their hands. Softening demand for products in an industry that is counting on lofty growth percentages to support their stock price is not a good thing. Regardless of how you cut it.

Just wait until the churn starts picking up this upcomming year. Don't fool yourself again into thinking Sirius will some how be immune to that. (Not directed at quoted poster)

Those that ignored XM's issues as being XM only are now sitting there scratching their asses wondering why Sirius is going to be testing its lows again and perhaps blowing through them if things don't start improving significantly.

XM and Sirius are great services but that doesn't make them good investments. Also anyone foolish enough to puff their balls on an internet message board is pathetic in my eyes. Just my 2 cents.

Last edited by adam28577; 12-04-2006 at 11:17 PM..
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Old 12-04-2006, 11:18 PM   #25
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I would plan for the lower number and be pleasantly surprised if they beat it. My fear is what if they don't even hit the lower number?
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Old 12-04-2006, 11:59 PM   #26
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Quote:
but with the reiteration of free cash flow (which I thought based on previous statements was dependent on making 6.3)
Cutting subscriber guidance does not diminish current quarter cash flow, it improves it -- but siri has made every possible effort to insure that they can claim it cash flowed in Q4 by prepaying everything at the end of Q3 andd theyll withhold pmts on everythign they can in Q4. Talking about FCF for a quarter means less than nothing it is just a gimick.
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Old 12-05-2006, 12:52 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!

Mel has lowered sub guidance for year end to a range of 5.9-6.1 million. Pretty disappointing in my opinion. Free cash flow is still expected for this quarter. Here come the bears!!!!!! Hold on tight, its gonna be a bumpy ride

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061204/nym275.html?.v=18
Your obviously not counting the subscribers who will "drop" their subscription. the first year is always a fad for many.
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Old 12-05-2006, 08:40 AM   #28
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Two analysts have lowered their Sirius ratings this morning in reaction to the new subscriber guidance. Bear Sterns dropped Sirius to Underperform (from Outpreform) and Morgan Joseph dropped it to Hold (from Buy).

Pre-market and early trading has got the stock down 30 cents a share right now. I dont' expect it to get much better than that.
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Old 12-05-2006, 08:55 AM   #29
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I could see the stock dropping to $3 or under in the next couple of months. Go to any Best Buy and Circuit City and you can see the radios are in very good supply. They are not moving.
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Old 12-05-2006, 09:26 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lunafan
I could see the stock dropping to $3 or under in the next couple of months. Go to any Best Buy and Circuit City and you can see the radios are in very good supply. They are not moving.
My local TV news reported on Sirius lowered Guidance. They told how Sirius said that this is due to people opting to but other electronics instead of pay radio devices.

I'm thinking we have seen the big rush to buy Satelite radio end. And as always when one company reports something negative, it affects the other companys stock as well. Both companys are down today.
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