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Old 12-05-2006, 10:48 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by rustytrombone
you is correct sir. I'm a year behind it seems. Don't think it's Mel's fault. There were COUNTLESS reasons for a slow season this year starting with the recall of all their radios. Radios tanking, radios not available.

When they can simplify the radios to the point of not having to include a radio supporter from INDIA with everyone sold, they will be in much better shape.
You already messed up the sub numbers, now are you messing up the support too? XM is the one with the outsourced support. I've called Sirius support quite a few times in my over 3 years of having them and have never talked to outsourced support.
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Old 12-05-2006, 10:50 AM   #32
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no---i just think everyone JUST today with the lowered sub announcement figured out the Stern effect was bigger then anticipated-even sirius underestimated his effect on sales last year-Long term its always better to have higher retail sales then your competition(when compared to OEM)
Nascar wil be a year long thing while everyone raced to get stern installed before he went on the air--that was the frenzy 500k in last 10 days--I dont think that will ever happen at retail again--ever

Now sales for xmas will be VERY strong but comparing to last years abnormal frenzy is crazy---I thik its now up to the OEMS to ramp up as thats the future growth for sats, especiallly Sirius which is JUST starting to ramp up in that arena---churn will always be betterthen Xm as the retial sales have a higher renewal rate--As more business comes on thru oem, churn will increase
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Old 12-05-2006, 11:14 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by NeuroRip
You already messed up the sub numbers, now are you messing up the support too? XM is the one with the outsourced support. I've called Sirius support quite a few times in my over 3 years of having them and have never talked to outsourced support.

Oh yeah. You are right. Sirius has perfect english speaking tech support. Thank you for stealing my "stupid hat" stupid.
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Old 12-05-2006, 02:18 PM   #34
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Okay, after years of analytical work, I'm prepared to say that both companies suck and have less than a snowballs chance in hell unless they merge.

Screw it all, and I mean it after reflecting on this the last 24 hours. Bullshitting CEO's on both sides, CFBE at 4.0 million subs, TV by 2004, 3 billion in revenue. It's all crap.

Here's the facts boys.... Satrad's growth is stalling quicker than the money is coming in. Costs remain horrendous, competition continues to proliferate with new and better products, autos aren't selling, people are driving less thanks to 2.50 gas under the Bush debacle, retail satrad is built out and further challenged with lower output, and nobody is making a fucking dime expect management and very limited performers and venues.

Screw all you tight asses who are worried that they might have to pay 2.00 more per month too, Merge or die Mel and Hugh.

This is getting old. Face reality for crissakes Gentlemen of the high rise.
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Old 12-05-2006, 02:48 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Okay, after years of analytical work, I'm prepared to say that both companies suck and have less than a snowballs chance in hell unless they merge.

Screw it all, and I mean it after reflecting on this the last 24 hours. Bullshitting CEO's on both sides, CFBE at 4.0 million subs, TV by 2004, 3 billion in revenue. It's all crap.

Here's the facts boys.... Satrad's growth is stalling quicker than the money is coming in. Costs remain horrendous, competition continues to proliferate with new and better products, autos aren't selling, people are driving less thanks to 2.50 gas under the Bush debacle, retail satrad is built out and further challenged with lower output, and nobody is making a fucking dime expect management and very limited performers and venues.

Screw all you tight asses who are worried that they might have to pay 2.00 more per month too, Merge or die Mel and Hugh.

This is getting old. Face reality for crissakes Gentlemen of the high rise.
Feel better now?
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:08 PM   #36
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Feel better now?
Not as well as I might after merger of these two leaky ships in a storm.
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:24 PM   #37
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Okay, after years of analytical work, I'm prepared to say that both companies suck and have less than a snowballs chance in hell unless they merge.
this is not going to happen as there is no reason xmsr would be willing to give up its stronger position and merge w/ siri just to help siri out of a bind even if the regulatory issues could be overcome and they cant.

Quote:
Screw it all, and I mean it after reflecting on this the last 24 hours. Bullshitting CEO's on both sides, CFBE at 4.0 million subs, TV by 2004, 3 billion in revenue. It's all crap.
wait a minute - siris ceo has been bullshitting but xmsrs mgmt has been 100% above board about its guidance. just cause you get pissed at siri mgmt dont take it out on xmsrs.

Quote:
Here's the facts boys.... Satrad's growth is stalling quicker than the money is coming in. Costs remain horrendous, competition continues to proliferate with new and better products, autos aren't selling, people are driving less thanks to 2.50 gas under the Bush debacle, retail satrad is built out and further challenged with lower output, and nobody is making a fucking dime expect management and very limited performers and venues.
xmsr mgmt has been telling us for a long time that oem is where the money is. siri has been telling us no if we build the content they will come and now we find out that siri spent a lot on content and the came for a few months but now they stopped coming. putting sat rad in cars is still the best way to get new subscribers. xmsr mgmt told us that a long time ago and it seems like they are about to be proved right arent they?

the problem is that siris mgmt has not always been very forthright in their remarks. only a month ago they were telling us how great things are now they cut guidance by 400k?

at least xmsr didnt bs us about it all yr - when they could see things werent shaping up at retail they said so. at the same time siris mgmt blustered about it and even raised guidance once just to get xmsrs goat claiming they see no softness at retail.

well, now they see it.
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:38 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
siri has been telling us no if we build the content they will come and now we find out that siri spent a lot on content and the came for a few months but now they stopped coming.

putting sat rad in cars is still the best way to get new subscribers. xmsr mgmt told us that a long time ago and it seems like they are about to be proved right arent they?
Do you have anything other than just your general opinion to offer these discussions? They have stopped coming? Oh Really, I am pretty sure sub count wise you are still going to see SIRIUS sign more subs this quarter than XM. We'll just have to wait and see how it washes out, but you are talking more nonsense again. I think you just like to read what you type and one thing for sure you believe SIRIUS can do nothing right and XM can do no wrong.

The only thing that is actual fact in your statment is that OEM's is the way to go and there no where have I ever seen SIRIUS say they don't want them. They full well understand that the long term depends on OEM factory installs. Content is just part of the battle!
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:50 PM   #39
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They have stopped coming?
apparently so. mel.k. suddenly carves 400k subs off the guidance and that isn't 'factual' enough for you?

your pro-siri stance, which i believe youre entitled to, has you blinded to the facts even after they have severely cut guidance.

Quote:
Oh Really, I am pretty sure sub count wise you are still going to see SIRIUS sign more subs this quarter than XM.
maybe, maybe not and i sure dont know what is going to happen and i doubt you are too.

it looks about even to me but siri has told us all along that stern was going to pull them thru. i just read a report asking where is stern anyway about how he has just dropped off the face of the Earth. where is howard and why could he not save siri?
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:52 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Screw it all... It's all crap.
You seem like a very unhappy person, Wb.

Like most unhappy people, making other people unhappy seems to be your goal in life. Or proposing impossibilities to fix what really isn't broken in the first place.

If you are right about satrad being in trouble, so be it. Why bring that here? I suspect one of two reasons: to stir up trouble... okay, one reason.

Your 'solution' of a merger is impossible. The FCC's charter for DARS has an anti-monopoly clause, specifically to prevent this.

Sirius' current condition and future outlook aren't as rosy as they were six months ago, I admit. But, even with doomsayers like you jumping on less than good news, it is hardly the time to start wailing and pulling out our hair.

If you don't mind some advice, Wb, you might try relaxing and enjoying what this board has to offer, instead of trying to insult and offend as many people as you can.
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Old 12-05-2006, 03:56 PM   #41
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"Your 'solution' of a merger is impossible. The FCC's charter for DARS has an anti-monopoly clause, specifically to prevent this."

Nothing is impossible. Define MONOPOLY in this case. If both are LOSING, then SOMEONE must be winning...that being their actual competition.

They will merge or one will fail. I DO NOT THINK the one to fail will be the one STERN is on.

Who's #1 on FM now? Oh that's right THE SPANISH NETWORK.

Stern IS radio. O&A are CHUMPS FOR HIRE which is why they have to juggle 8 radio gigs a morning.
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Old 12-05-2006, 04:07 PM   #42
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Try this, rt. Go into a bank and nicely ask for all the money in the vault. Since nothing is impossible in your world, they will probably start filling sacks and handing them to you.

The FCC, like those guys with guns in the bank lobby, would probably strongly object. They'd probably allow just about anybody to take over the failing satrad corp, rather than permit a merger.
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Old 12-05-2006, 04:24 PM   #43
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Come ON. You can do better than that.

So you are saying that Nintendo and Sony are not competitors cause they don't use the same formats?

Gameboy isn't in competition with phone based videogames?

TV isn't in competition with YOU TUBE?

FM isn't in competition with Sirius??

If they are both LOSING, then the COMPETITION must be winning right?
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Old 12-05-2006, 04:53 PM   #44
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Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft are competitors. Some of the games aren't, if they don't cross platforms.

Most people will consider a Gameboy without seriously thinking about the games on their cellphone.

YouTube's competition with broadcast TV, cable, and satellite is non-existant. Or, do you know people who download Monday Night Football? Streamed video is a small, niche media. Maybe in a few years...

IF FM was in competition with Sirius, being free, they should have won a long time ago, don't you think?

Your question presupposes the answer. It's like asking 'if water is wet, then it must be an ocean! Right?' Satrad isn't failing until it fails. With 13.5 million subscriptions, how can you say it's failing? Even if it fails, however, that is a negative commentary on the business model of satrad, not a testimonial for terrestrial radio.
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Old 12-05-2006, 05:50 PM   #45
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This is too new an industry to know yet whether the dropoff in net subscriber additions is the start of a leveling off, or a pause before a new surge. A leveling off is inevitable, but does it come at 10 million or 20 million or more? No one knows, and that includes Mel and Hugh.

If the plateau is lower, then XM wins because they have a better cost structure and Sirius may never catch up on subscriber numbers.

If the plateau is higher, then Sirius wins because they will eventually have a larger share of the market and more than make up for their higher costs.

Rather than a merger, the more likely outcome if one service runs out of cash is that they go into bankruptcy and emerge as a no-frills provider. With the startup capital costs paid for by the unfortunate early investors (who lose everything), expensive contracts broken by the bankruptcy, and a very frugal management cutting costs in every way possible, the new owners could have a very nice cash cow on their hands.
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