Digital Radio Central - Sponsored by TSS Radio
  DRC Home Page DRC Forums Contact Us  
 
SIRIUS Backstage Forum
 
 
 
  Sirius Satellite Radio XM Satellite Radio iTunes/iPod Slacker Pandora  
 
 
FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >
Visit Digital Radio Central

Notices

The Street Converse with other investors about finance, economic and investment strategies. This is also the place to discuss SIRIUS XM company news and your favorite stocks.

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 06:03 PM   #46
Whiskerbiscuit
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 08, 2006
Posts: 234
Whiskerbiscuit is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Capn Ramius
You seem like a very unhappy person, Wb.

Like most unhappy people, making other people unhappy seems to be your goal in life. Or proposing impossibilities to fix what really isn't broken in the first place.

If you are right about satrad being in trouble, so be it. Why bring that here? I suspect one of two reasons: to stir up trouble... okay, one reason.

Your 'solution' of a merger is impossible. The FCC's charter for DARS has an anti-monopoly clause, specifically to prevent this.

Sirius' current condition and future outlook aren't as rosy as they were six months ago, I admit. But, even with doomsayers like you jumping on less than good news, it is hardly the time to start wailing and pulling out our hair.

If you don't mind some advice, Wb, you might try relaxing and enjoying what this board has to offer, instead of trying to insult and offend as many people as you can.
----------

If you don't mind the suggestion pontificating extraordinary, bite me below the belt. having read your many opinions, you are usually wrong and always stuffy.
Whiskerbiscuit is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 06:27 PM   #47
FlagRiot
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 01, 2006
Posts: 226
FlagRiot has a little shameless behavior in the past
Default

Quote:
If the plateau is higher, then Sirius wins because they will eventually have a larger share of the market and more than make up for their higher costs.
siri has a larger share of the market?

last i remember xmsr was to end the year with 7.7-7.9 million subs and siri is struggling to get to 6.

how is that a larger market share for siri? just because stern for a few months brings in extra subs for siri you assume siri has a 'larger' share of the mkt?

if todays news didnt make it clear for you, ill say it: its over dude.
FlagRiot is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 06:41 PM   #48
Whiskerbiscuit
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 08, 2006
Posts: 234
Whiskerbiscuit is on a distinguished road
Default

Like XM is immune to any of this. Like I was saying...merge or die on the vine.

----------------------------------

It appears that even satellite radio, which is commercial-free, is no match for choose-it-yourself MP3 music. Digital music is now easier to reach by the day and it also seems that apparently satellite radio wasn't up to the challenge to predict and meet the listeners' demand. Yet another possibility is that demand is too fragmented and cannot be easily met with prefab playlists that play on the radio, even if it has around 100 channels.

---------------------

New York (eCanadaNow) - Sirius Satellite Radio has had it’s rating slashed after the company cut its outlook for new subscriptions due to lower-than-anticipated retail sales since American Thanksgiving.

Shares fell 27 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $3.90 in pre-market trading on Tuesday, after closing at $4.17 Monday on the Nasdaq. The stock has floated between $3.60 and $7.98 in the past 52 weeks and is down 38 percent from the beginning of the year.

“While satellite radio as a category is not among the ‘hot’ gift items this holiday season, most consumers are concerned either about the cost of the receivers themselves or the hidden costs of ownership that include installation costs, and the prices of the accessories and kits,” reported Bear Stearns analyst Robert S. Peck.

The lowered company outlook prompted Peck to slash his rating on Sirius to “Underperform” from

“Outperform,” noting an overall weak retail environment could continue to weigh on Sirius. Meanwhile, the company’s automotive partners are losing market share.

Sirius and rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. sell receivers in stores and through deals with auto makers, which place satellite units in their new cars. Peck notes that XM’s partners, which include Toyota, General Motors, Nissan, and Honda, are gaining market share compared with Sirius’s alliances with Ford and DaimlerChrysler, who’re seeing their slice of the pie grow thinner and thinner.

“For this reason, Sirius remains more dependent on the retail market than XM, and the retail environment remains weak,” wrote Peck. “As such, we think the stock likely will trail XM’s until there is better visibility into growth.”

Sirius recently said it expects to add between 2.6 to 2.8 million new subscribers in 2006, to amass a total of between 5.9 and 6.1 million by the end of December. Previously, the company had expected to end the year with a total of 6.3 million listeners.
Whiskerbiscuit is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 06:48 PM   #49
pto
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Dec 01, 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 191
pto is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
siri has a larger share of the market?
Of course they do. They've led in net subscribers additions for, what, a year?
My point being that if Sirius continues to lead in net subscriber additions, and if the plateau doesn't come until 20 million, then Sirius will be able to catch up with XM.

But I suppose that if I wanted unbiased, intelligent analysis of the future of satellite radio I've come to the wrong thread!
pto is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 06:54 PM   #50
Whiskerbiscuit
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 08, 2006
Posts: 234
Whiskerbiscuit is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pto
Of course they do. They've led in net subscribers additions for, what, a year?
My point being that if Sirius continues to lead in net subscriber additions, and if the plateau doesn't come until 20 million, then Sirius will be able to catch up with XM.

But I suppose that if I wanted unbiased, intelligent analysis of the future of satellite radio I've come to the wrong thread!
----------------------

ah..don't bunch yer panties over FR or Capt' ignoramus these are both zealots that represent the far right of their preferences and are blind to reason. Think Henry Waxman and Karl Rove as examples.
Whiskerbiscuit is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 07:13 PM   #51
Whiskerbiscuit
Banned
 
Join Date: Sep 08, 2006
Posts: 234
Whiskerbiscuit is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Capn Ramius
You seem like a very unhappy person, Wb.

Like most unhappy people, making other people unhappy seems to be your goal in life. Or proposing impossibilities to fix what really isn't broken in the first place.

If you are right about satrad being in trouble, so be it. Why bring that here? I suspect one of two reasons: to stir up trouble... okay, one reason.

Your 'solution' of a merger is impossible. The FCC's charter for DARS has an anti-monopoly clause, specifically to prevent this.

Sirius' current condition and future outlook aren't as rosy as they were six months ago, I admit. But, even with doomsayers like you jumping on less than good news, it is hardly the time to start wailing and pulling out our hair.

If you don't mind some advice, Wb, you might try relaxing and enjoying what this board has to offer, instead of trying to insult and offend as many people as you can.
----------------------------------

And another thing.... why not try confusing yourself with facts on occassion ?

---------------------------------

On Wednesday, Jacoby led a group of broadcasting investors to Washington where they met with FCC officials. In his recap, Jacoby says “there does not appear to be a consensus yet on whether the FCC likely would approve an XM and Sirius Satellite Radio merger – the probability of success seems higher than we previously had thought.” But, adds Jacoby, "Representatives from the office of Democratic FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein indicated that 'the public is well served with the current setup' of two competitors. The representatives did appear to acknowledge that the financial success of the two operators could be a key factor in a decision – although Sirius has stated that it expects to achieve positive FCF in ’07, we project that neither operator will generate positive FCF until 2008.”

Jacoby reports that “a lawyer in attendance at the meeting with extensive experience regarding FCC matters expressed the opposite view – he believes that such a merger would get the necessary three votes as satellite radio likely would be viewed as just one piece of a broader market for the distribution of music.” But, says Jacoby, the lawyer also acknowledged that approval becomes slightly more difficult with a Democratic controlled Congress and even more difficult with a Democratic White House. “Our view – the upcoming 2008 presidential election could pressure Sirius and XM to reach a potential merger agreement within the next twelve months IF there is mutual interest (given the time required to obtain the necessary regulatory approvals). Interestingly, a failure to achieve positive FCF in ’07 ultimately could benefit both companies if it makes a merger more palatable to regulators. However, we believe that XM could be resistant given that its enterprise value remains roughly 20% smaller than Sirius’ despite a stronger position in the increasingly important [original equipment] channel.” Jacoby also stresses that the “NAB likely would lobby heavily against a combo.”
Whiskerbiscuit is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 07:14 PM   #52
M4
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Sep 19, 2005
Posts: 229
M4 is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
Sirius and rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. sell receivers in stores and through deals with auto makers, which place satellite units in their new cars. Peck notes that XM’s partners, which include Toyota, General Motors, Nissan, and Honda, are gaining market share compared with Sirius’s alliances with Ford and DaimlerChrysler, who’re seeing their slice of the pie grow thinner and thinner.
SIRI needs Jap cars, not freakin Germans. Does anybody know how long the XM & HONDA or TOYOTA agreements are?
__________________
Starmate Replay - 1999 Honda Accord EX V6
XM - 2008 Nissan Altima Coupe 3.5 SE
Sirius Premium Online Radio
M4 is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 07:43 PM   #53
Hurricane
Mixologist
5.9-6.1 Million
 
Join Date: Jul 20, 2003
Location: Lafayette, LA
Posts: 379
Hurricane is on a distinguished road
Default

Wow, this is all tough to read! Is this a form of capitulation? Seems as though the sky is falling.
Hurricane is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 08:01 PM   #54
FlagRiot
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 01, 2006
Posts: 226
FlagRiot has a little shameless behavior in the past
Default

Quote:
My point being that if Sirius continues to lead in net subscriber additions, and if the plateau doesn't come until 20 million, then Sirius will be able to catch up with XM.
there are no circumstances under which siri can ever 'catch up' to xmsr _UNLESS_ they figure out how to get factory installs in some of xmsrs oems. as you are now seeing, retail is dry9ing up and oem is where its at and xmsr has oems covering 60% or more of us auto sales. unless and until xmsr loses some of these oems, it is not arithmetically possible for siri to 'catch up'.

Quote:
But I suppose that if I wanted unbiased, intelligent analysis of the future of satellite radio I've come to the wrong thread!
yes, you have. this is after all a siri board. my posts are unbiased but i doubt many around here would recognize it to be honest.
FlagRiot is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 08:41 PM   #55
pto
Loyal Listener
 
Join Date: Dec 01, 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 191
pto is on a distinguished road
Default

Keeping the XM vs. Sirius stuff off the plate for a bit, may I ask why people are so convinced that a merger makes sense?

How would the merger be handled? Initially, there would still be two incompatible systems. You can't shut one off and use the bandwidth for the other without losing a huge revenue stream. Even if you could eventually drop the duplicated formats, is there that big an audience for the second-tier formats that this would let you add?

So if you maintain both services, you could save a wee bit by combining back office functions. But I don't think that's a huge percentage of operating costs.

Could you raise prices? The current softness in sales shows there isn't a lot of room for that. Doubling prices most certainly does not double revenue.

Could you pay less for content? A merger, without a bankruptcy, means you are stuck with a lot of very expensive contracts. Down the road, you could drop Howard, the NFL, MLB, etc. But then would anyone subscribe? Perhaps you might save something on contract renewals, since no one is bidding against you. But I don't think you'll see the NFL agreeing to a lower price. And worse, you might see RIAA asking for even more.

Maybe video could save a merger. Use half the bandwidth for audio, half for video. People will pay more per month for video. But if that strategy actually works, there's nothing to stop one service or the other from following it now.

So what's the reasoning? Why is a merger good for investors?
pto is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 10:05 PM   #56
FlagRiot
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 01, 2006
Posts: 226
FlagRiot has a little shameless behavior in the past
Default

Quote:
Keeping the XM vs. Sirius stuff off the plate for a bit, may I ask why people are so convinced that a merger makes sense?
You have nailed it - the only explanation for merger talk is that the people talking merger dont have the slightest idea about what theyre talking about ; there is little benefit to be had from a merger just as you explained.

even if you could get around the regulatory hurdles there is not enough synergy in a combination to make it happen and besides there has to be some motivation for xmsr to do it and what would that motivation be? theyll take on the problems of siri and drag their own operations down with overpriced content inferrior technology and oem deals that are less productive than their own.

siri needs someone to bail them out, but melk would be better off trying to find a terrestrial company to buy them where there really could be synergy.
FlagRiot is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 10:58 PM   #57
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
5.9-6.1 Million
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
your pro-siri stance, which i believe youre entitled to, has you blinded to the facts even after they have severely cut guidance.
If you would bother to take note of several post I made prior to the 3rd quarter results, you will clearly see I said that SIRIUS would not be able to meet the guidance. I firmly believe they should have lowered it at that time, the stock would have already did what it was going to do and things would be for the most part settled in. Clearly this management team made a lot of assumptions, just as XM's has done many times over.

I don't think people are as blind on this forum as you believe with all your anti-sirius/pro-xm nonsense.

I do not see a merger happening, I have never believed this would happen.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox

Last edited by DAB; 12-05-2006 at 11:05 PM..
DAB is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 11:14 PM   #58
FlagRiot
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 01, 2006
Posts: 226
FlagRiot has a little shameless behavior in the past
Default

Quote:
If you would bother to take note of several post I made prior to the 3rd quarter results, you will clearly see I said that SIRIUS would not be able to meet the guidance. I firmly believe they should have lowered it at that time, the stock would have already did what it was going to do and things would be more the most part normalized.
I guess we are in agreement then because ive surely believed they had no chance of making it and in fact it is hard to see any business rationale for having bumped it that last 100k at all - downright stupidity, imo.

Quote:
Clearly this management team made a lot of assumptions, just as XM's had done many times over.
well when you are in business you have to make assumptions. i think where i have an issue w/ siris mgmt is that it has been pretty obvious they were over estimating what they could do even before the last couple of guidance increases. it really makes you question mgmts judgment. at least in xmsrs case they were competent about it and at the instant they started seeing softness they started cutting guidance. in the overall scheme of things it does not matter except it may expose siri to the kind of frivolous lawsuits xmsr is now facing.

Quote:
I don't think people are as blind on this forum as you believe with all your anti-sirius/pro-xm nonsense.
what you are kidding? there is a guy here who has been claiming siri would add thousands of subscribers from a 2day free trial of interenet streaming. others who have been totally blind to the rather obvious fact that stern wont keep bringing subs at last yrs rate. still others that actually _BELIEVE_ that siri has a chance of 'catching xmsr' in subs even though there is no reasonable such chance given the oem deals.

say what you want, but blindness is rampant here and thats the reason ive taken issue with some (a small part) of it cause there has to be some reality around here.

Quote:
I do not see a merger happening, I have never believed this would happen.
and you are right.

maybe we agree on more things than you think.
FlagRiot is offline  
 
 
Old 12-05-2006, 11:35 PM   #59
4BAMA
Rocket Scientist
 
Join Date: Feb 08, 2004
Posts: 514
4BAMA is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
there are no circumstances under which siri can ever 'catch up' to xmsr _UNLESS_ they figure out how to get factory installs in some of xmsrs oems. as you are now seeing, retail is dry9ing up and oem is where its at and xmsr has oems covering 60% or more of us auto sales. unless and until xmsr loses some of these oems, it is not arithmetically possible for siri to 'catch up'.



yes, you have. this is after all a siri board. my posts are unbiased but i doubt many around here would recognize it to be honest.

anythings possible.oem's will drive sub growths for both companies. the smaller player's in the oem's could get bought out by the larger players. eventually it comes down to which oem's will drive growth more and which ones are more committed or less committed.

for example if ford made sirius standard and gm didn't there would be a sub gain by sirius the same holds true for xm. also, if repo rates are higher or lower for any manufacturer that would have an impact on churn as well. which could lead to sirius or xm having a higher churn on subs.

the sirius sub numbers were hard to make. a little suprised at preannouncing so early before christmas but gets the bad news out of the way.2007 should be a better year for both sirius and xm.sub numbers were hard to beat compared to last years numbers.

2006 was a bad year for satellite radio stocks and that includes xm flagriot. u r far from unbiased. constantly bashing sirius which you are entitled to your opinion but don't claim to be unbiased. i've never heard you say 1 bad thing about xm or good thing about sirius.

correct me if i'm wrong but xm missed their sub numbers in q4 2005 and didn't preannounce that they wouldn't make sub numbers. forecasted 9 million subs for year ending 2006 and the sub numbers have been revised down how many times? board members disagreeing with management's strategy. xm's management has made more than their fair share of mistakes in guidance this year
4BAMA is offline  
 
 
Old 12-06-2006, 12:28 AM   #60
DAB
Site Editor / Moderator
5.9-6.1 Million
 
DAB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 08, 2003
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 20,013
DAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura aboutDAB has a spectacular aura about
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
say what you want, but blindness is rampant here and thats the reason ive taken issue with some (a small part) of it cause there has to be some reality around here.
I think you have folks that are over zealous, that happens, but I don't really consider that blindness. One thing for sure the truth always comes out and corrections are made rather by being proactive or reactive.

Don't give yourself too many pats on the back, because I find many of your post to be very speculative and you always lack much in the way of fact. Basically you are XM biased and that has shown loud and clear from the first time you posted on this forum. Also, I don't think this forum needs you to bring a dose of reality, because the reality you live in is your own. Your reality is wrapped around a strong XM bias. You see I have no problem with someone saying.. hey yes I am XM bias and I think SIRIUS has problems because of this. But you try to pretend you aren't bias when you clearly are. Now you've grown arrogant basically saying you are here to save us all from ourselves. I have a huge, huge history here on this forum as indicated by the amount of post I have. I think my record clearly speaks to being pretty fair on both fronts. However, you can't say the same. I have dual subs and own stock in both companies, I have no reason whatsoever to want either of them to fail. In the long run if SIRIUS was to fail, you think that would help XM? You are living in a bigger fairtale land than I thought if you do.

I agree that SIRIUS management past and present has made a lot of mistakes a long the way. But don't be so biased as to try to paint XM as being without mistakes and poor decisions. The fact is that it is possible both of these companies may miss their guidance and for XM to have lowered theirs twice and still miss it won't bode well for them. Clearly SIRIUS shouldn't have raised guidance and needed to be more proactive on sticking to it during the last quarterly report. But XM is far from out of the woods. It will be interesting how it all pans out, but one thing for sure, SIRIUS is a player and it seems just when folks such as yourself counts them out, they rally and make a surprise come back. It is my opinion that both companies have issues, but will eventually reach CFBE and hopefully on to profitability. There have been folks such as yourself that counted SIRIUS out 3 years ago, yet here they are and I don't see them going away anytime soon. I think there will be many things that would happen long before SIRIUS goes under.

Now a question for you? Do you have a SIRIUS subscription or are you just here to save all us SIRIUS fans from ourselves? That may not be a bad thing if you just didn't have your head so far up XM's.. well you get the point. Honestly we don't need a savior and if that is your only reason for being here now would be a good time for you to make an exit to the XM forums, which is where you really belong based on your strong XM bias. Also please don't insult us by denying it, because you don't have the market cornered on reality, but if you can't admit you are big time XM bias then clearly you are in denial.
__________________
DAB

Digital Radio Central (New Forum) http://www.digitalradiocentral.com/forum.php

Slacker G2 Premium (4gb-25 Stations), Home Dock
Delphi XpressRC with 2 Home, 2 Car Docks and XMBB1 Boombox
1st Gen, iPod Touch 32gb (Slacker and Pandora Apps) iKicker Boombox

Last edited by DAB; 12-06-2006 at 12:40 AM..
DAB is offline  
 
 
 

Go Back   SIRIUS Backstage Forum > >


Digitalradiocentral.com




Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
interesting article on sirius and xm (long) from barrons soxnationonline The Street 12 06-18-2008 02:48 PM
SIRIUS Satellite Radio Reports StoliMike The Street 15 02-18-2006 08:20 PM
3rd Quarter Results RUFUSBIGBUCKS The Street 15 11-02-2005 02:37 PM
Saddam's Gifts mattr652 The Doghouse 24 02-01-2004 12:10 PM
SIRIUS Announces Third Quarter 2003 Financial Results TulaneJeff Insiders Blog 16 11-21-2003 12:06 AM

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:57 PM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO v2.0.39 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
All Content Copyright SIRIUS Backstage. All Rights Reserved. SIRIUS and registered trademarks are the property of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc. The opinions posted on SIRIUS Backstage website and forums are those of the individual posters and/or this website and are not necessarily the opinions or positions of SIRIUS Satellite Radio, Inc.