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Old 12-06-2006, 12:43 AM   #61
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Do you have a SIRIUS subscription or you just here to save all us SIRIUS fans from ourselves?
save for a brief period last yr (05) i have had a siri subscription since the pnp1 came out. i do have one and i do occasionally listen to it (basically when i happen to be in that car that has it). i do prefer xmsrs content however so i have 5 xm recvs.

Quote:
Basically you are XM biased and that has shown loud and clear from the first time you posted on this forum.
i suppose in the same way that you and others here are siri-biased. i believe i have stated to you that i believe xmsr is the better investment as well as the better service, so my bias hasnt been hidden in any way.

i thought this thread was about siri so it is a fact i havent said much about xmsr other than to compare the two where it made sense to do so or to respond to someone else.

as an example, whisker has bashed xmsr's mgmt time and time again, and i have responded only with facts, such as (better oem deals, lower cpga, better technology, more subs, etc. -- all verifiable facts, not speculation, not opinions). if anyone has taken me to task about any remark ive made i have at least attempted a sensible reply. i surely think that my posts here have been at least as factual as pretty much any others in this forum.

you dont have me coming here making ridiculous claims (like some have claimed that the free trial of SIR would bring in thousands of new subs, or that SIRI was "kicking XMs ass" or anything else of that sort). if you feel ive said something that is not a supportable fact please just point it out if you would like for me to provide support or i"ll just admit i made a mistake.

if someone wants to take issue with me i am comfortable with that. but they need to use facts to do it and not just hurl insults.
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Old 12-06-2006, 02:14 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
i do prefer xmsrs content however so i have 5 xm recvs.

i suppose in the same way that you and others here are siri-biased.

i thought this thread was about siri so it is a fact i havent said much about xmsr other than to compare the two where it made sense to do so or to respond to someone else.

if someone wants to take issue with me i am comfortable with that. but they need to use facts to do it and not just hurl insults.
Finally, you not only prefer XM content, you prefer XM as an investment and the fact is you just simply prefer XM PERIOD! So, thank you for confirming what we've all known all along.

You have said plenty about XMSR. (By the way is your caps lock key broken on your keyboard?) You've thrown out every bit of information you could possibly scrounge up and what you didn't think you knew for sure you just sort of add-libbed to fill in the gaps with your so called reality, though most of it is nothing more than speculation. I admit I don't disagree with everything you say, but you're mighty arrogant to keep saying you are here to save us from ourselves because you are here to bring reality is just nonsense.

The one key thing is that this forum is about SIRIUS, it is a SIRIUS Fan site and therefore did you really think you'd be able to just come here spew all your pro-XM anti-SIRIUS talk and everyone would just agree with you? Not all of us feel that SIRIUS is a big disaster waiting to happen as you apparently do. Clearly they have their problems as does XM. I also do not think you've always supported your anti-SIRIUS position, you just keep spewing the XM line as if XM has done everything right. When we all know they have not. You often fail to address the comments folks make. I know I have addressed several things you've said and instead of actually addressing those comments, you just come back with more of the same. XM isn't doing that GREAT, yes they have achieved some things, but they are far from out of the woods themselves.

So, let me just say again if your sole purpose on this forum is to do what you've been doing, then I really do think you need to move on over to the XM forums where you can spew all the anti-SIRIUS crap you want too and they will agree with you. This forum is SIRIUS biased, that is why it is called SIRIUSBackstage! Just like XM411 and XMFan are XM biased as they should be. Did you miss that part when you registered here? I don't think anyone died and left you in charge of the reality of this forum. Evidently most of the folks in the threads I've seen you post, almost immediately disregard most of what you say as totally XM bias, because now you have a history of clearly doing just that. Since you feel you are so reality based whereas the rest of us are not, aren't you really just wasting your time here?

I personally think if SIRIUS and XM both miss their guidance the Sat Radio industry is in trouble, not just SIRIUS or XM... the industry as a whole. Rather you like it these companies to a certain degree are tied together by the ankles. If folks like you spent more time talking about the industry as a whole rather than just nit picking and nit picking at just one of the 2 players, you'd realize that.

By the way I've not seen anyone insult you, but if you consider someone telling you that you are XM biased and anti-SIRIUS as an insult, then you should accept that gladly because it is true and you have now admitted it.
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Old 12-06-2006, 06:58 AM   #63
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Finally, you not only prefer XM content, you prefer XM as an investment and the fact is you just simply prefer XM PERIOD! So, thank you for confirming what we've all known all along.

You have said plenty about XMSR. (By the way is your caps lock key broken on your keyboard?) You've thrown out every bit of information you could possibly scrounge up and what you didn't think you knew for sure you just sort of add-libbed to fill in the gaps with your so called reality, though most of it is nothing more than speculation. I admit I don't disagree with everything you say, but you're mighty arrogant to keep saying you are here to save us from ourselves because you are here to bring reality is just nonsense.

The one key thing is that this forum is about SIRIUS, it is a SIRIUS Fan site and therefore did you really think you'd be able to just come here spew all your pro-XM anti-SIRIUS talk and everyone would just agree with you? Not all of us feel that SIRIUS is a big disaster waiting to happen as you apparently do. Clearly they have their problems as does XM. I also do not think you've always supported your anti-SIRIUS position, you just keep spewing the XM line as if XM has done everything right. When we all know they have not. You often fail to address the comments folks make. I know I have addressed several things you've said and instead of actually addressing those comments, you just come back with more of the same. XM isn't doing that GREAT, yes they have achieved some things, but they are far from out of the woods themselves.

So, let me just say again if your sole purpose on this forum is to do what you've been doing, then I really do think you need to move on over to the XM forums where you can spew all the anti-SIRIUS crap you want too and they will agree with you. This forum is SIRIUS biased, that is why it is called SIRIUSBackstage! Just like XM411 and XMFan are XM biased as they should be. Did you miss that part when you registered here? I don't think anyone died and left you in charge of the reality of this forum. Evidently most of the folks in the threads I've seen you post, almost immediately disregard most of what you say as totally XM bias, because now you have a history of clearly doing just that. Since you feel you are so reality based whereas the rest of us are not, aren't you really just wasting your time here?

I personally think if SIRIUS and XM both miss their guidance the Sat Radio industry is in trouble, not just SIRIUS or XM... the industry as a whole. Rather you like it these companies to a certain degree are tied together by the ankles. If folks like you spent more time talking about the industry as a whole rather than just nit picking and nit picking at just one of the 2 players, you'd realize that.

By the way I've not seen anyone insult you, but if you consider someone telling you that you are XM biased and anti-SIRIUS as an insult, then you should accept that gladly because it is true and you have now admitted it.
-----------------

Should a moderator be dissecting a contributor of different opinion ? ...Me thinks not. Why not let the boards fully reflect the opinions of all, and let the members take each other apart. A Democracy in effect ? ...It may help SBS grow into something the size of competitive platforms.

I support FR's right to write even if I don't agree. I like you DAB, but we're not on the same page on this one.

--------

Whilst posting, here's a little ditty that I hope any FCT or FCC viewers consider on forthcoming necessary merger.

-----

Ted Allrich submits: Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) isn't growing quite as fast as it thought just a month ago. In fact, it's 200,000 subscribers short of an estimate it gave a few weeks ago. It announced that by the year end 5.9 million to 6.1 million listeners would be tuning in. That was down from 6.3 million forecasted in August of this year. Three weeks ago, the company said it was on track to hit that number. But it won't. Growth isn't happening as quickly as anticipated.

It's not like listeners are going to the competition. XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) revised its subscriber forecast down several times this year. It's looking for year end subscribers to be between 7.7 million and 7.9 million. That's down from the 9 million it expected at the beginning of the year. Both companies agree there's a softness in the retail market.

That's because listeners have more options than they did even 2 years ago. Now they can plug in their iPods or listen to HD [High Definition] Radio while they're driving. Of course, it doesn't help that complaints of transmission problems have increased, as well as others. New subscribers don't see those as selling points.

What seems to be happening here is a limited universe for a market, one that only has so many subscribers. While Satellite and XM are battling it out for those listeners, neither is making money, and both are spending freely for new content or stealing content from the other. As an example, Sirius recently signed Nascar which will move from XM in January. That's not new content.

Howard Stern was signed last year with a lot of fanfare. Sirius hoped it would make all the difference. There's no question many new listeners signed up to hear an unfettered Howard Stern titillate his followers. But that wasn't enough to put profits on the bottom line. And unless these two giants merge [which would have real anti-trust problems], the promise to investors
of profits within some reasonable time frame seems more and more remote. And if the two were to merge, beware of the cost of a subscription because there would be no competition.

Sirius and XM have serious problems, and Howard Stern, NASCAR and college football aren't the fix. It looks like a lot of money was spent wooing a market that is now showing itself to be relatively small. Unless the universe of listeners expands, these two radio giants will continue to battle over the subscribers who are simply looking to get the best deal for listening to commercial free radio.
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Old 12-06-2006, 07:10 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Hurricane
Wow, this is all tough to read! Is this a form of capitulation? Seems as though the sky is falling.
I can only offer my .02.

My angst isn't that Sirius missed their forecasts, it's that Sirius seems to be hitting the same wall that XM has/had which suggests that the problem isn't Sirius, it's the overall demand for satrad. It seems to me that 20 million is the draw for this technology, which isn't sufficient to feed let alone feed and clothe two services that are almost out of money. ( they don't talk about this much in analysts meetings do they ? )

Picture Rocky, fighting Rocky. Both are a bloody mess in the next to the last round and all but spent. If either Rockies do win, they will be so exhausted and crippled by the drain, that the rest of their evening is shot.

Many wrote a long time ago that the demand for pay radio could and would not sustain two companies with the rigors and expense of operating such a technology. They have proven themselves to be right IMHO.

Had MP3's not come along, or if the economy had not sagged with slumping auto sales, had the content race ( which should have been expected in models ) not commenced, maybe TWO could work.

If two do survive, they won't make a frickin dime till 2009 and then the profits thereafter will never support the share prices we even see today. Want to see a 3-4 billion dollar investment in a 4 million dollar market cap, with 250 million shares make 200 million annually ? That's pennies.

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Old 12-06-2006, 08:31 AM   #65
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And another thing.... why not try confusing yourself with facts on occassion ?
Let me get this straight. You're posting an article about people speculating on a possibility to show I am not stating facts?

At least you refrained from name-calling in that one.
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:32 AM   #66
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I support FR's right to write even if I don't agree.
Whisker

This is what I call intellectual integrity.

You've got it, and I appreciate it, and so should the rest of this board, even those that dont agree with you about something.

I guess DAB feels that "discussion" should not include opposing opinions. I totally dont understand the purpose of this thread if persons of opposing views cant express them here, consistently and without retribution.
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:38 AM   #67
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It seems to me that 20 million is the draw for this technology, which isn't sufficient to feed let alone feed and clothe two services that are almost out of money.
An absolutely valid concern imo but remember that retail was always seen as a way of jumpstarting the industry until oems could ramp factory installs and from the outset everyone agreed that standard equipt oem installs was where the industry needs to be.

if the oem churn rate can be kept down the industry has nothing to fear at this point. if the number of people picking up subs after the promo period drops below 50% people should be rethinking the industry imo.
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Old 12-06-2006, 09:44 AM   #68
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Should a moderator be dissecting a contributor of different opinion ? ...Me thinks not.
I support FR's right to write even if I don't agree. I like you DAB, but we're not on the same page on this one.
The bottom line is that his opinion is not being suppressed one iota. But as a moderator I think I have a responsibility to point out posters that for whatever reason choose to always, always only post where they are clearly anti-SIRIUS and are Pro XM. I am not the only one that has seen this clear pattern with FR's post.

There is nothing wrong with having an opposing view, they are posted all the time. I think if a posters only purpose on this site is always highlight the negative, they are on the wrong forum. We have many posters that have an opposing view, but not on every single thing that comes up comparing the two and that is the difference. There is a clear cut pattern here and I am not the only one that sees it. Come on XM hasn't done everything right and SIRIUS hasn't done everything wrong, but if I read FR's post that is the only conclusion you can draw.

Now back to the topic....

So the overall point is talk about the industry as a whole, not just nit picking about what one is doing over the other. These guys are tied together and you can't separate them as an industry. OEM's are very important, but more import is OEM retention rates. I think we all agree on that one.
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:03 AM   #69
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DAB

I must have misunderstood you. You said:

Quote:
So, let me just say again if your sole purpose on this forum is to do what you've been doing, then I really do think you need to move on over to the XM forums where you can spew all the anti-SIRIUS crap you want too and they will agree with you.
I interpreted that as "shape up or ship out", "stop saying what your saying or leave", "we dont want none of your kind around here".

You have the power to eliminate me if you choose to do so.
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:11 AM   #70
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I interpreted that as "shape up or ship out", "stop saying what your saying or leave", "we dont want none of your kind around here".

You have the power to eliminate me if you choose to do so.
Once last time, I've encountered many posters in my 4 years on this forum. I've never seen one that always, always seem to find that everything one company did was right, while finding the one did everything wrong. You seem to do that in almost every thread your participate in. This make everyone feel you are just totally XM biased and they immediately take everything you say as being that. My point is that if you really want to have open and honest dialog, you can't do this on a Sirius Fan forum and expect folks are going to agree with you. Like I said, I agree with some of the things you've said, clearly you aren't wrong on every point. But the fact is that XM isn't right on everything they do and SIRIUS isn't wrong. Too bad we can't gleam that from your post, because I think if overall posters did, you wouldn't be challenged on almost everything you write. I have no problem with your opposing view, my problem is that you seem to have it in every single thread you participate in, isn't that rather odd that you never agree with anything that SIRIUS does? Perhaps I am misunderstanding you, but it doesn't seem so.

Anyway if you want to continue this, send me a PM an in the mean time lets get back on topic.
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:24 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
While I'm disappointed about this, proper perspective needs to be maintained.

XMSR

Q4-2004 added 713,772
Q4-2005 added 898,315
Q4-2006 projected 650,000

Sirius

Q4-2004 added 480,969
Q4-2005 added 1,142,640
Q4-2006 projected 820,000

Still kicking Xm's ass quarter after quarter by 20-30%.
Only problem with this comparison is that Sirius counts units in cars on dealer's lots as subs even though the car has not been sold or the service put into use. I forget the details of the deal, but it's something like the dealers pay an amount so that the radios are active upon sale of the car for a free trial period.

Therefore Sirius numbers are overstated by this amount. If anyone has numbers on how many subs are from car dealerships vs. after market subs, it will give us a better comparison. I know XM's GM stated that their subs run 50-50. So if Sirius runs the same, for Q4-06 that would be 410,000. Of that, how many are cars sitting on dealer's lots? Also, how many of the "dealer subs" stay on after the trial period. Basically, if 100,000 don't subscribe after the trial, it's overstating the current quarter's subs.
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Old 12-06-2006, 10:42 AM   #72
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Of that, how many are cars sitting on dealer's lots?
the last statement i heard from siri on this subject was a couple months ago and frear indicated it was about 8% of their total subscribers.
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Old 12-06-2006, 01:54 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
I can only offer my .02.

My angst isn't that Sirius missed their forecasts, it's that Sirius seems to be hitting the same wall that XM has/had which suggests that the problem isn't Sirius, it's the overall demand for satrad. It seems to me that 20 million is the draw for this technology, which isn't sufficient to feed let alone feed and clothe two services that are almost out of money. ( they don't talk about this much in analysts meetings do they ? )
This is a good point. The ORIGINAL model of the business was that you would have low fixed costs and low programming budgets of $40 million a year and you could reach breakeven at 4 million subscribers. If you offered people music and talk shows that would be enough.
Sirius came along and said that that was the wrong approach. What people wanted was content besides music and basic talk. So now both companies have huge programming budgets, with Sirius' programming budget at an astronomical level. The thery was that all this content would bring subscribers. Fat Joe (Clayton) would say that the NFL would do for satellite radio what it did for Directv. Instead, we see Sirius running into the same wall that XM has run into. It's hard to grow the business because of churn and all this extra content is not bringing in retail subscribers.
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Old 12-06-2006, 02:03 PM   #74
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The ORIGINAL model of the business was that you would have low fixed costs and low programming budgets of $40 million a year and you could reach breakeven at 4 million subscribers.
It was a risk that pretty much paid off, IMO.

I don't care for Stern, but he generated a lot of buzz for Sirius and boosted subs to where we are a serious rival for XM. That's a lot of progress from the Johnny-come-lately status Sirius had just two years ago.

A lot of unhappy people let Sirius and third party receiver makers know there was a market for newer, better technology. That was pretty good for every Sirius subscriber, not just those who only subscribed for Howard.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joeinma
Sirius counts units in cars on dealer's lots as subs even though the car has not been sold
The mating call of the XM fanboy.
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Old 12-06-2006, 03:19 PM   #75
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I can't stand people that have blinders on, one way or the other. There are plenty of Sirius fanboi's here and thats to be expected its a Sirius forum. The other side of the coin is just as ugly.

Neither company is a good investment. Good service? Yes. Good investment? No.

The one thing I'll grant XM at this point in time is it does have a better cost structure and it does have a much lower value market wise meaning if there is to be a buyout XM will be the first to go.

I don't see them merging unless both companies can't survive. As I see it now, Sirius has bigger obstaclse to overcome since they have pissed away so much money for content they run a real risk of running out of cash very soon (8-12 months). Lets not forget that this content will start comming up for renewal over the next couple of years and they want to launch another bird for the home users. Not too mention the huge christmas advertising blitz that doesn't seem to be working very well with lowered guidence.

In essence I don't see things going well for Sirius and i don't expect them to get bought out. I certainly don't expect them to merge with XM unless XM is unable to make it on their own. XM would rather see Sirius die a slow death and pick up the bandwidth on auction. I'm betting other companies looking at the situation would rather do the same than try to buy the bloated beast as is. There are just too many obligations and way too many shares outstanding for there to be much value and there is a whole lot of risk. Better to wait for bankruptcy and get the birds and bandwidth at a discount. Content can be picked up later, and cheaper once the contracts are up.

I'm not saying Sirius will fail or that I even believe it will. I'm just saying that any of you looking at a merger or buyout are probably going to be disapointed. At least when Sirius is being mentioned.
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