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Old 12-06-2006, 04:54 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam28577
I can't stand people that have blinders on, one way or the other. There are plenty of Sirius fanboi's here and thats to be expected its a Sirius forum. The other side of the coin is just as ugly.

Neither company is a good investment. Good service? Yes. Good investment? No.

The one thing I'll grant XM at this point in time is it does have a better cost structure and it does have a much lower value market wise meaning if there is to be a buyout XM will be the first to go.

I don't see them merging unless both companies can't survive. As I see it now, Sirius has bigger obstacles to overcome since they have pissed away so much money for content they run a real risk of running out of cash very soon (8-12 months). Lets not forget that this content will start coming up for renewal over the next couple of years and they want to launch another bird for the home users. Not too mention the huge Christmas advertising blitz that doesn't seem to be working very well with lowered guidance.

In essence I don't see things going well for Sirius and i don't expect them to get bought out. I certainly don't expect them to merge with XM unless XM is unable to make it on their own. XM would rather see Sirius die a slow death and pick up the bandwidth on auction. I'm betting other companies looking at the situation would rather do the same than try to buy the bloated beast as is. There are just too many obligations and way too many shares outstanding for there to be much value and there is a whole lot of risk. Better to wait for bankruptcy and get the birds and bandwidth at a discount. Content can be picked up later, and cheaper once the contracts are up.

I'm not saying Sirius will fail or that I even believe it will. I'm just saying that any of you looking at a merger or buyout are probably going to be disappointed. At least when Sirius is being mentioned.
------------------------------------

I like reading your writing. You're a smart guy.

The only challenge I would have to your opinion is that Sirius has both better programing and much better and capable management in the opinion of the majority of surveyed ( Bridge Poll ) and Wall Streeters.

IF you assume this is a powerful combination ( as I do ) then the ONLY supreme advantage XM has over Sirius today is that it has 8 points more OEM share.

This is worthless and literally negated IF Sirius retains subs ( due to said superior programming ) more than XM does, you must admit.

Also, we look at the OEM market as if it's static. It's not. The contracts are not forever and are very dynamic especially GM's in November 2007. To that end, does anyone here think GM or Honda ( or Toyota for that matter ) will be exclusive with XM if the masses are whining for Sirius ? Who thinks Toyota will be loyal to XM if they fail to sell a car over Kia if any owner conveys displeasure ( as I have done to GM in writing ). ( FYI ) I won't buy another Honda or GM for this reason now )

No me thinks. I submit, in fact will wager, that some automakers will REQUIRE both companies ( if not merged prior ) to supply dual function radios as early as 2008-2009 model year. Then "Buckos" ( as Cap't ignoramus likes to say ) the party is fully determined by the CONSUMERS CHOICE which always wins in the end.

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Old 12-06-2006, 05:06 PM   #77
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You had a pretty good post going, until the end.

I would never say "Buckos", wb. If you want my avatar to be in persona, I would say "Comrades".

You're a grudge holding little man, aren't you?
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Old 12-06-2006, 05:37 PM   #78
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[QUOTE=Capn Ramius]


Your 'solution' of a merger is impossible. The FCC's charter for DARS has an anti-monopoly clause, specifically to prevent this.

----------------

Thank you Doctor.


McDowell: Sat radio merger 'intriguing'
By Georg Szalai

Dec 6, 2006

NEW YORK -- The FCC's Robert McDowell in a rare media investor conference appearance Tuesday said that a satellite radio merger could be "an intriguing idea" to look at and signaled that he feels no need for his regulatory agency to mandate a la carte content offerings.

Addressing a room packed with Wall Street folks, McDowell said "the core mission of the FCC is to promote freedom" of consumers and entrepreneurs. The agency's main goals must be to enable free markets and free ideas and remove barriers to entry with any government measures to address market failures having to be narrowly tailored, he added.

Asked about a potential merger of XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio and whether it would abolish competition, McDowell said it is an "intriguing idea" and that he'd "be happy to look at it."

Asked about a much-suggested merger of satellite TV giants DirecTV Group and EchoStar Communication, he referred only to recent comments made by FCC chairman Kevin Martin, who had said he hasn't seen enough evidence to justify a satellite merger.

Questioned about his stance on the a la carte content debate, in which Martin has shown an interest, McDowell said, "We already live in an a la carte world." Pointing to his children's habit of watching content whenever and wherever they want, he said that companies that don't react to changed consumer behavior will suffer the consequences in the marketplace.

Asked about media ownership rules, the commissioner said he sees a need for change, joking that "I have a hunch it is no longer 1975."

McDowell also said the need of new rules to balance a changed media landscape with old values of competition, diversity and localism is a "difficult" undertaking, but he expressed optimism that the regulatory agency will find a solution based on "a reasoned approach."

McDowell on Tuesday also called Net neutrality a "Rorschach term" that is "ill defined," saying he feels the FCC should only rule on the issue if someone brings evidence of a well-defined market failure.
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Old 12-06-2006, 06:14 PM   #79
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Also, we look at the OEM market as if it's static. It's not. The contracts are not forever and are very dynamic especially GM's in November 2007. To that end, does anyone here think GM or Honda ( or Toyota for that matter ) will be exclusive with XM if the masses are whining for Sirius ? Who thinks Toyota will be loyal to XM if they fail to sell a car over Kia if any owner conveys displeasure ( as I have done to GM in writing ). ( FYI ) I won't buy another Honda or GM for this reason now )

No me thinks. I submit, in fact will wager, that some automakers will REQUIRE both companies ( if not merged prior ) to supply dual function radios as early as 2008-2009 model year. Then "Buckos" ( as Cap't ignoramus likes to say ) the party is fully determined by the CONSUMERS CHOICE which always wins in the end.
whisker

People posting here or at xmfan are very opinionated about which service but the average car buyer is not - do you really thinkk peopel are walking into gm dealers demanding siri? they arent you can be sure. and they arent demanding xmsr in their chryslers either.

there is no possibility of gm shifting gears on its contract. first because the contract terms dont permit it and second because xmsr is paying them a lot of money for these 1.8m factory installs nxt year just as siri is paying chrysler a lot of money not to install xmsr. it is not conceivable that siri would come close to paying gm what xmsr is paying them. and it is not conceivable that xmsr would pay chrysler what siri is paying them.

the masses are not whining for siri or for xmsr. they take what is in the car they pick out and that is why factory installs are so important. thats also why siri has paid so much for these small fact install deals.

your tenacity is admirable but you simply must know that it is not typical and even a few hundred complaints from people wanting the other service (and they are not getting that many) wont make any difference.

the japanese oems have gone with xmsr because it can deliver technology more quickly then siri can. several yrs ago when navtraffic, etc., was exclusive to xmsr these deals were struck. it takes years to change them not only for the excllusivity provisions to expire but also to engineer alternative solutions to support siris systems.

this is the reason ive been saying for a while that xmsr is in the catbird seat wrt oem deals.
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Old 12-06-2006, 07:41 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
------------------------------------

I like reading your writing. You're a smart guy.

The only challenge I would have to your opinion is that Sirius has both better programing and much better and capable management in the opinion of the majority of surveyed ( Bridge Poll ) and Wall Streeters.

IF you assume this is a powerful combination ( as I do ) then the ONLY supreme advantage XM has over Sirius today is that it has 8 points more OEM share.

This is worthless and literally negated IF Sirius retains subs ( due to said superior programming ) more than XM does, you must admit.

Also, we look at the OEM market as if it's static. It's not. The contracts are not forever and are very dynamic especially GM's in November 2007. To that end, does anyone here think GM or Honda ( or Toyota for that matter ) will be exclusive with XM if the masses are whining for Sirius ? Who thinks Toyota will be loyal to XM if they fail to sell a car over Kia if any owner conveys displeasure ( as I have done to GM in writing ). ( FYI ) I won't buy another Honda or GM for this reason now )

No me thinks. I submit, in fact will wager, that some automakers will REQUIRE both companies ( if not merged prior ) to supply dual function radios as early as 2008-2009 model year. Then "Buckos" ( as Cap't ignoramus likes to say ) the party is fully determined by the CONSUMERS CHOICE which always wins in the end.
Over and over again you keep mentioning Sirius superior programming. Says who? You? I'm sure we can find MANY thousands, if not millions of people who prefer XM's programming. Thats a very subjective reason to bet on a merger, or JUST Sirius surviving.

As for management for 2 years XM and Sirius has been locked into this macho 'who's bigger' sub war. I 'think' XM has finally realized the bottom line is more important then their sub count, and it doesn't matter who's # 1 or 2 in sat radio. Mel recent comments and tone tell me he's still stuck on the 'we're going to be # 1 no matter how much is costs' mentality. I hope I'm wrong, but he's hasn't given me a warm and fuzzy feeling lately.
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Old 12-06-2006, 08:54 PM   #81
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Over and over again you keep mentioning Sirius superior programming. Says who? You? I'm sure we can find MANY thousands, if not millions of people who prefer XM's programming. Thats a very subjective reason to bet on a merger, or JUST Sirius surviving.

As for management for 2 years XM and Sirius has been locked into this macho 'who's bigger' sub war. I 'think' XM has finally realized the bottom line is more important then their sub count, and it doesn't matter who's # 1 or 2 in sat radio. Mel recent comments and tone tell me he's still stuck on the 'we're going to be # 1 no matter how much is costs' mentality. I hope I'm wrong, but he's hasn't given me a warm and fuzzy feeling lately.
you would expect persons posting here to think siris content is better. and there are others of us who think xmsrs is better.

The argument of which content is 'better' is subjective as you say and cannot be determined (it depends on who you are talking to) but there is an aspect of it that is _not_ subjective and that is that xmsr can deliver more at better quality; this is something that nobody can really argue about because we know objectively that xmsrs orbits are better suited and xmsrs codec delivers more content at the same quality with the same bandwidth. therefore it is pretty reasonable to assume that over time xmsr is going to have the content advantage.

I agree w/ you about Mel talking big and spending big to back it up. xmsr has made it clear that last qtr4 was a one-time event that will not be repeated.

Siris lack of coverage of fundamentally important genres of music is a big problem for them that they are not in a position to do anything about. siris content may be better if you think stern is all there is to content -- but if you are interested in folk music or southern gospel or any of many others, there can be no argument because siri simply doesnt have that kind of content.

The content argument is never ending, but there are some definite statements that can be made -- xmsr delivers more, and xmsr delivers genres that siri doesnt and cannot, and siri doesnt deliver any genres that xmsr doesnt. so for people who arent interested in stern or nfl games it may be that objectively xmsrs content is better.

im sure dab will take my head off about it so that is why i am arguing _only_ on facts that cannot be doubted.
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:03 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
you would expect persons posting here to think siris content is better. and there are others of us who think xmsrs is better.

The argument of which content is 'better' is subjective as you say and cannot be determined (it depends on who you are talking to) but there is an aspect of it that is _not_ subjective and that is that xmsr can deliver more at better quality; this is something that nobody can really argue about because we know objectively that xmsrs orbits are better suited and xmsrs codec delivers more content at the same quality with the same bandwidth. therefore it is pretty reasonable to assume that over time xmsr is going to have the content advantage.

I agree w/ you about Mel talking big and spending big to back it up. xmsr has made it clear that last qtr4 was a one-time event that will not be repeated.

Siris lack of coverage of fundamentally important genres of music is a big problem for them that they are not in a position to do anything about. siris content may be better if you think stern is all there is to content -- but if you are interested in folk music or southern gospel or any of many others, there can be no argument because siri simply doesnt have that kind of content.

The content argument is never ending, but there are some definite statements that can be made -- xmsr delivers more, and xmsr delivers genres that siri doesnt and cannot, and siri doesnt deliver any genres that xmsr doesnt. so for people who arent interested in stern or nfl games it may be that objectively xmsrs content is better.

im sure dab will take my head off about it so that is why i am arguing _only_ on facts that cannot be doubted.

once again don't try 2 say you are unbiased when u throw your personal opinion's in. i'm biased to sirius and that is based on content and i will explain my reasons below. content will always be subjective. u r throwing in your personal opinion that sirius is missing certain genres.

heck, maybe they should throw in an oldies oldies channel to attract the 90 year old age group. maybe they've done research that it wouldn't be worthwhile to use a channel for a certain genre.content is subjective and their are certain channels that will drive subscribers to sirius or xm.

for example, for myself it is simple. i have xm thru direct tv. i listen to alot of the grateful dead. in my opinion sirius by far has the better channel for jam bands( jam_on) than xm. i'm also a bama fan and only sirius carries bama sports. so, unless xm gets sec sports then i will always be with sirius.

the argument can be made both ways so don't try to say one way or another that xm has better content. it depends on you're preferences. if u r into sec sports, jam bands, nfl, ncaa tournament, stern then you'll go with sirius. if someone is into acc sports, mlb, o&a, folk music, southern gospel then you'll go with xm
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:31 PM   #83
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the argument can be made both ways so don't try to say one way or another that xm has better content. it depends on you're preferences. if u r into sec sports, jam bands, nfl, ncaa tournament, stern then you'll go with sirius. if someone is into acc sports, mlb, o&a, folk music, southern gospel then you'll go with xm
That is correct it is all about doing your home work, knowing what you like and are looking for and then matching those preferences with the right service. There is no right or wrong service or right or wrong content. I initially started out with XM way back when it was so eclectic that I totally hated it. I switched to SIRIUS while I could still return the hardware. SIRIUS was like a breath of fresh air because they had just what I was looking for. Most folks that come to sat radio, there only example is FM. So for many to come to a Sat Radio service isn't because they expect to hear what isn't being played on FM as much as it is to be able to hear a wider variety of what they know and love. Then after the get beyond that hurdle, they are more than willing to expand into to genres and music that they may not have heard before. Clearly when you look at XM's decade channels, hits and pop genres they are much, much more hits based now than they use to be. XM finally learned you have to pretty much move a little closer to the hits and so they have.

I personally find that XM has some genres that they do a better job with and SIRIUS has some that they do a better job with. This is why I enjoy having both services and want to see them both do well.

Perhaps I am more optimistic and less XM bias than some of you clearly are on this subject, because I am just not ready to count SIRIUS out. I was here back when they had 6000 customers and everyone said within a year they would be out of money and history. 4 years later they are saying the same thing. There is no doubt both of these companies have major hurdles to cross and SIRIUS may indeed have some higher and bigger ones to cross than XM. But if they successfully do so, I think they'll be a bigger and better company for having the experience in the long run. No company always makes the right decision all the time. This isn't about having blinders on, this is about being willing to look at both companies and seeing strengths and weaknesses and not just nit picking on one or the other.

I am honestly glad that XM and SIRIUS aren't a mirror of each other, because this provides us true dual subscribers with the best of both worlds.

I big time disagree that SIRIUS can't add genres that they currently do not have. There are ways of adding programming that will satisfy folks without having a channel. You take Southern Gospel. I know some real die hard southern gospel fans and most of them will tell you that they can only listen for a period of time then they have to switch to something else. It is just one of those genres and you can't listen to 24/7. SIRIUS added The Bill Gaither Homecoming Show on the Roadhouse. Some of the very best Southern Gospel you can hear anywhere. It is only on 3 hours Sunday morning and 3 hours Sunday night. I record it each week because I like to split the 3 hours of music up during the week. But this provides this genre on SIRIUS. I remember when XM didn't have a SGC, they had shows on America (Stain Glass) (Gospel Cowboy Show) to name a couple, that provides this genre. So the point is that you don't always need to have a full time channel to provide shows and/or programming that will give listeners so many hours or shows a week featuring these genres. In many ways I actually like this concept better than full time channels. The only thing SIRIUS needs to do is think outside the box by coming up with programming that fills the gaps they have. There are gaps in XM's genre coverage as well, so neither of them are perfect and probably never will be. But it's so easy for folks like FR to point fingers at SIRIUS, while pretending that XM has no issues at all.
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:41 PM   #84
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once again don't try 2 say you are unbiased when u throw your personal opinion's in.
Did I say I am 'unbiased'? i think ive probably expressed clearly that i am biased toward xmsr both as a service and as an investment several times today.

i am not unbiased.
i am not unbiased.
i am not unbiased.
i am not unbiased.
neither are you.
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:45 PM   #85
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neither are you.
Oh I think there are some of us that can raise our hand and clearly have a history of being a hell of lot less bias than you are in regards to SIRIUS or XM. You got it bad and with each post it stands out more and more. You just about can't make a post without pointing out how much better XM is than SIRIUS. When the fact is that is only true for you based on your preference and this is what you apparently fail to realize.
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Old 12-06-2006, 11:57 PM   #86
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I big time disagree that SIRIUS can't add genres that they currently do not have.
dab - i agree with you that siri can make choices as to which content it wants to add. I do believe eventually they will become better at doing this, and this is one reason competition is healthy. eventually they will find that they cannot have single artist channels if they want to compete with xmsr on music.

diversity is important when you are competing against ipods because diversity is the one thing an ipod simply cannot deliver. For this reason i would be surprised to see xmsr tighten its playlists (overall) -- because they have a competitive advantage wrt ipods compared w/ siri.

but my earlier point was that xmsr will always be able to have more content then siri (and siri is going off on this video tangent when they really need the bandwidth to become competitive with the _QUANTITY_ of content). if xmsr believes its content is being outclassed by siri, they can easily make changes to be more siri-like. but siri doesnt have the option to have the diversity xmsr does because of the codec/satellite situation. that was my point.

i,too, think both cos can survive -- but siri does have much more of an uphill battle. they are much more reliant on retail for their survival -- and retail is expensive compared to oem _AND_ if it is in fact drying up, that compo0unds their problems.

xmsr never envisioned retail as its principal business. from the very outset xmsr has talked of a 'holy grail' -- standard equipment oem installs -- and by leveraging their technology advantage they were able to get exclusives with the most important car oems. so that is why i think siri has an uphill battle at this point. the pnp was nothing more than a bridge to get xmsr from the early days to the holy grail days. as it has turned out, retail has been more important.

because siri spent so much for content (which only helps draw customers in at retail, not thru oems), xmsr is in a better position there, as well.

if you guys feel im bashing sirius i understand. but the cold hard reality is that siri has some real problems here and they have had for a while. the stern effect masked the problems for a year, but it is pretty clear now that it was not a good deal for siri and that the temporary benefits received via stern may end up being somewhat fleeting.

gotta go. good luck to all of you.
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Old 12-07-2006, 12:16 AM   #87
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if you guys feel im bashing sirius i understand. but the cold hard reality is that siri has some real problems here and they have had for a while. the stern effect masked the problems for a year, but it is pretty clear now that it was not a good deal for siri and that the temporary benefits received via stern may end up being somewhat fleeting.

gotta go. good luck to all of you.
Well if you know the history of SIRIUS, you'll know SIRIUS never planned to even have home units. This is why they switched from the orignally planned Geosynchronous Sat's, which was indeed a mistake in MY opinion, others disagree. But you don't think they went after OEM's. They did the only problem was that the companies they signed agreements with Ford, Dodge/Chrysler's really didn't perform or move very quickly to jump on the bandwagon. This could be SIRIUS management fault, but from what I've learned over this time period and see how Ford is I think they just stalled out because they really didn't see Sat Radio taking off. Now they are finally getting there, but at a much slower pace than GM. GM jumped on Sat Radio like gang busters, that was a good thing for XM. But had GM did what Ford did they would have had no choice but to go after the retail sector too. I don't fault Sirius's management for this, they had to do it, they simply had no choice.

I also disagree that Stern and the NFL was a mistake or that it will end up costing them too much. I've not seen one single opinion that has convinced me otherwise. My opinion is that without Stern SIRIUS would have been dead in the water last year. Now they stand a fighting chance and I think they'll pull it out. I am not blind, I am not stupid, but I don't see like you do. I've said it all along SIRIUS has a hell of of an uphill battle, XM does too. I think if SIRIUS goes bust the chance of XM standing strong isn't real good. I think it will take the industry as whole down or at minimum set it back big time. See we all have opinions, but I understand folks will disagree with me. We'll never know who is right till these chapters in the life of Sat Radio unfold.
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Old 12-07-2006, 12:29 AM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
there are no circumstances under which siri can ever 'catch up' to xmsr _UNLESS_ they figure out how to get factory installs in some of xmsrs oems. as you are now seeing, retail is dry9ing up and oem is where its at and xmsr has oems covering 60% or more of us auto sales. unless and until xmsr loses some of these oems, it is not arithmetically possible for siri to 'catch up'.



yes, you have. this is after all a siri board. my posts are unbiased but i doubt many around here would recognize it to be honest.

everyone has an opinion and as far as i'm concerned u r more than welcome to express yours. just like i always admit that i favor sirius because of certain content
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Old 12-07-2006, 03:55 AM   #89
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Here's the thing that keeps running around in my little brain lately concerning this merger talk. Why does Mel keep bringing a merger up over and over these past few months yet XM never mentions it or denies there's merger talk? Besides the fact that SIRI gets a little bump everytime Mel mentions a merger, what other reason is there that Mel feels he has to constantly mention a merger? It just seems strange to me one side talks about a merger twice a week yet the other side denies there's any merger talks going on.

If there was really talks going on I would think they would discuss how they would handle press releases and both would either agree to keep the talks secret or both would say there's talks going on.


BTW Dab you and I are both oldtimes here, so we both remember the original estimates concerning what sub numbers Sirius would need to make a buck, about 2 mil subs. If these estimates were correct the question then is: Was the Stern signing worth it? IMO without these big name signings I think Sirius would NOT be dead in the water. Sure there's no way they'd have 6 mil subs, but 2-2.5 mil and making money might be better than 6 mil and still bleeding red ink.
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Old 12-07-2006, 08:49 AM   #90
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It seems like Mel is trying to pump the stock (Hey Clayton... Where is that video you promised us in 2004?).

Everytime this happens I loose a little respect for the guy.

Short term pops in pps does nothing for the long term value.

XM has the better financial numbers and is approaching CFBE sooner... why would XM want a merger?

Outside of all of this the current trend is disturbing... on the XM Board we have been talking for years about market saturation and reaching a point where the tech heads stop consuming and the general public is your main market. The early adopters have adopted... now its time to settle in, control costs and work towards cleaning up your financial metrics. Dont force growth... the old turtle and hare analogy.

We may be at that point... if so each company is in trouble based off of their current valuation. I am glad I jumped out in August!
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