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Old 12-07-2006, 11:07 AM   #91
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"Sure there's no way they'd have 6 mil subs, but 2-2.5 mil and making money might be better than 6 mil and still bleeding red ink."

That's true BUT only if Stern RETIRED. He needed to go SOMEWHERE. If that somewhere was XM, there would be NO SIRIUS.
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Old 12-07-2006, 12:14 PM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustytrombone
Oh yeah. You are right. Sirius has perfect english speaking tech support. Thank you for stealing my "stupid hat" stupid.
Who called you stupid? Obviously you have an issue with your own intelligence, but don't drag me into your problem of regurgitating bad information
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Old 12-07-2006, 12:16 PM   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
xmsr mgmt has been telling us for a long time that oem is where the money is. siri has been telling us no if we build the content they will come and now we find out that siri spent a lot on content and the came for a few months but now they stopped coming. putting sat rad in cars is still the best way to get new subscribers. xmsr mgmt told us that a long time ago and it seems like they are about to be proved right arent they?
While OEM revenue is nice, XM is literally eating half of all of the radios they are paying to install. At 100 bucks a pop (not sure of exact costs) and an estimated 3 million OEM subs this year, they are shelling out 150 million dollars in radios that may never be used.
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Old 12-07-2006, 12:18 PM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAB

I personally find that XM has some genres that they do a better job with and SIRIUS has some that they do a better job with. This is why I enjoy having both services and want to see them both do well.

Perhaps I am more optimistic and less XM bias than some of you clearly are on this subject, because I am just not ready to count SIRIUS out. I was here back when they had 6000 customers and everyone said within a year they would be out of money and history. 4 years later they are saying the same thing. There is no doubt both of these companies have major hurdles to cross and SIRIUS may indeed have some higher and bigger ones to cross than XM. But if they successfully do so, I think they'll be a bigger and better company for having the experience in the long run. No company always makes the right decision all the time. This isn't about having blinders on, this is about being willing to look at both companies and seeing strengths and weaknesses and not just nit picking on one or the other.

I am honestly glad that XM and SIRIUS aren't a mirror of each other, because this provides us true dual subscribers with the best of both worlds.

I big time disagree that SIRIUS can't add genres that they currently do not have. There are ways of adding programming that will satisfy folks without having a channel. You take Southern Gospel. I know some real die hard southern gospel fans and most of them will tell you that they can only listen for a period of time then they have to switch to something else. It is just one of those genres and you can't listen to 24/7. SIRIUS added The Bill Gaither Homecoming Show on the Roadhouse. Some of the very best Southern Gospel you can hear anywhere. It is only on 3 hours Sunday morning and 3 hours Sunday night. I record it each week because I like to split the 3 hours of music up during the week. But this provides this genre on SIRIUS. I remember when XM didn't have a SGC, they had shows on America (Stain Glass) (Gospel Cowboy Show) to name a couple, that provides this genre. So the point is that you don't always need to have a full time channel to provide shows and/or programming that will give listeners so many hours or shows a week featuring these genres. In many ways I actually like this concept better than full time channels. The only thing SIRIUS needs to do is think outside the box by coming up with programming that fills the gaps they have. There are gaps in XM's genre coverage as well, so neither of them are perfect and probably never will be. But it's so easy for folks like FR to point fingers at SIRIUS, while pretending that XM has no issues at all.

i have also been with sirius from the beginning of their launch. The reason i didn't go with xm since they launched first was simple. xm had commercials on their music channels and i wanted commercial free music. xm saw the light and went commercial free. other reason i decided to go with sirius originally was the xm relationship with clear channel and the relationship continues on a smaller scale now since a few a xm music channels have commercials.

not a big fan of stern but could you only imagine what would have happened to sirius if xm would have paid to get stern? xm would have probably 10 million subs and sirius maybe 3.

i don't disagree that their could be some changes to programming. i'm sure some sort of marketing research has been used to determine whether to dedicate a single channel to a specific genre. for example, i would like to see sirius have a channel that was dedicated to 90's alternative music(pearl jam, sound garden,alice n chains, nirvana, janes addiction, rage against the machine to name a few bands). sirius has decided currently to spread the bands out on different channels. i would like to see something like a band of the day, or week, or month channel which was dedicated to a certain bands music.

Last edited by 4BAMA; 12-07-2006 at 12:21 PM..
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Old 12-07-2006, 04:40 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustytrombone
"Sure there's no way they'd have 6 mil subs, but 2-2.5 mil and making money might be better than 6 mil and still bleeding red ink."

That's true BUT only if Stern RETIRED. He needed to go SOMEWHERE. If that somewhere was XM, there would be NO SIRIUS.
I don't believe for a minute Stern would have went to XM. He would have retired, stayed on FM, or still signed with Sirius for A LOT less money because thats where Mel was going.
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Old 12-07-2006, 05:09 PM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BAMA

i don't disagree that their could be some changes to programming. i'm sure some sort of marketing research has been used to determine whether to dedicate a single channel to a specific genre. for example, i would like to see sirius have a channel that was dedicated to 90's alternative music(pearl jam, sound garden,alice n chains, nirvana, janes addiction, rage against the machine to name a few bands).
That seems to be all I hear on Octane........
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Old 12-07-2006, 07:29 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeuroRip
While OEM revenue is nice, XM is literally eating half of all of the radios they are paying to install. At 100 bucks a pop (not sure of exact costs) and an estimated 3 million OEM subs this year, they are shelling out 150 million dollars in radios that may never be used.
XM pays a subsidy on the chipset, but when was the last time XM's SAC even near $100? By your own admission you are making up meaningless numbers. On the other hand, Frear stated yesterday they are paying Chysler about $150 per installation. Mel has been suggesting their OEM conversion rate is similar to XM's. So half of Sirius' OEM radios "may never be used".
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Old 12-07-2006, 07:38 PM   #98
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XM pays a subsidy on the chipset, but when was the last time XM's SAC even near $100? By your own admission you are making up meaningless numbers. On the other hand, Frear stated yesterday they are paying Chysler about $150 per installation. Mel has been suggesting their OEM conversion rate is similar to XM's. So half of Sirius' OEM radios "may never be used".
exactly - xmsr is not getting destroyed on fact installs the way siri is. the gm deal is expensive but mostly in revenue share and xmsr still comes out on these subs even if only marginally. siri otoh, given a 50% oem churn rate, cannot even earn their up front costs back before the other 50% cancel due to paying subscriber churn.

it never ceases to amaze me how some of these people (like neuro) that have been around a long time can know so little about the business end of siri.
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Old 12-07-2006, 09:45 PM   #99
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this is where many people are making a mistake on xm and sirius in regards to oem and churn. for example,if xm cost is 75 and sirius is 150. if 50% of people are signing up that will probably work for both companies. if a person keeps the car 4 years and subscribe for the 4 years both sirius and xm will be very profitable. xm cost may be less but their revenue will be less due to revenue sharing.sirius costs may be more but their revenue will be more. i believe both companies will be profitable in the long run

Last edited by 4BAMA; 12-07-2006 at 11:33 PM..
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Old 12-07-2006, 11:33 PM   #100
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Quote:
xm cost may be less but their revenue will be less.sirius costs may be more but their revenue will be more.
Not saying you didnt make any sense, but can you explain what you mean?

Both companies have about the same ARPU and the average subscriber lasts about the same amt of time for both companies (both < 4 yrs).

xmsr has lower cost, and siri has higher cost. what does that have to do with revenue? the gm revenue share is higher than any in the industry, agreed -- but siri is paying thru the nose for their oems whereas xmsr isnt except for gm.

you can only go on arpu and it looks about the same to me.
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Old 12-08-2006, 11:56 AM   #101
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correct me if i'm wrong but i believe the example i was giving is not accountable in arpu yet as far as future revenue or profits. for example, if sirius cost is 150 and xm 75 per oem.

if sirius has no revenue sharing deals and xm keeps 80% of revenue. if customers subscribe for 3 more years per oem.xm(36 months x 12.99/mo x .80 - 75 =299 net profit per sub)and sirius(36 x 12.99 -150 =317 net profit per sub). even if you take out the losses on the oem where customers don't subscribe there could be some nice profits.

of course this is just an example because i do not know what the exact figures as far as revenue shares or costs but it shows if paying customers keep satellite radio for an additional 3 years their could be some nice profits

Last edited by 4BAMA; 12-08-2006 at 05:03 PM..
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Old 12-08-2006, 03:31 PM   #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
whisker

People posting here or at xmfan are very opinionated about which service but the average car buyer is not - do you really think people are walking into gm dealers demanding siri? they aren't you can be sure. and they aren't demanding XMSR in their chryslers either.

there is no possibility of gm shifting gears on its contract. first because the contract terms dont permit it and second because xmsr is paying them a lot of money for these 1.8m factory installs nxt year just as siri is paying chrysler a lot of money not to install xmsr. it is not conceivable that siri would come close to paying gm what xmsr is paying them. and it is not conceivable that xmsr would pay chrysler what siri is paying them.

the masses are not whining for siri or for xmsr. they take what is in the car they pick out and that is why factory installs are so important. thats also why siri has paid so much for these small fact install deals.

your tenacity is admirable but you simply must know that it is not typical and even a few hundred complaints from people wanting the other service (and they are not getting that many) wont make any difference.

the japanese OEMS have gone with xmsr because it can deliver technology more quickly then siri can. several yrs ago when navtraffic, etc., was exclusive to xmsr these deals were struck. it takes years to change them not only for the excllusivity provisions to expire but also to engineer alternative solutions to support siris systems.

this is the reason ive been saying for a while that xmsr is in the catbird seat wrt oem deals.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$

This is not widely known or mentioned but there is a performance clause in the XM/GM contract ( and I suspect others ) that stipulates that if " X " market share is not maintained by XM, GM had the option to include competitors products in lieu of said contract. This clause is exercised in November 2007 and is one of the reasons I think Sirius has poured on the coals.

You won't find this in SEC filings, but it is true. IF Sirius can flip the GM contract, XM will be in a very precarious position.
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Old 12-08-2006, 09:24 PM   #103
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This is not widely known or mentioned but there is a performance clause in the XM/GM contract ( and I suspect others ) that stipulates that if " X " market share is not maintained by XM, GM had the option to include competitors products in lieu of said contract. This clause is exercised in November 2007 and is one of the reasons I think Sirius has poured on the coals.
about everyone who follows xmsr & siri closely either knows it or should know it. it is not a secret. right, i know you dug it out of those piles of 'research' lol.

short of xmsrs satellites falling out of the sky (actually, even then, since xmsr now has 2 inorbit spares) there is no chance of the bailout terms being met, as the stern effect is over and xmsr continues to maintain a substantial mkt shr lead. taking it one step further there is no reason gm would _WANT_ to bailout given what they are being paid by xmsr (and siri sure as hell can not pay it).

g. parsons responded to a question on the subject of oems changing horses yesterday. he essentially said it isnt going to happen -- either direction. the oems have made their decisions and the difficulties in factor installing both services are insurmountable.

xmsr
honda, gm, nissan, toyota, hyundai (about 60%)

siri
ford, dcx, kia, bmw, vw audi. (about 40%)

thats the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future and there is not very much that can change that.
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Old 12-09-2006, 07:32 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Over and over again you keep mentioning Sirius superior programming. Says who? You? I'm sure we can find MANY thousands, if not millions of people who prefer XM's programming. Thats a very subjective reason to bet on a merger, or JUST Sirius surviving.

As for management for 2 years XM and Sirius has been locked into this macho 'who's bigger' sub war. I 'think' XM has finally realized the bottom line is more important then their sub count, and it doesn't matter who's # 1 or 2 in sat radio. Mel recent comments and tone tell me he's still stuck on the 'we're going to be # 1 no matter how much is costs' mentality. I hope I'm wrong, but he's hasn't given me a warm and fuzzy feeling lately.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$

There are many, many, many things that can be debated about satrad, but the fact that Sirius has superior content IS NOT one of them. Hey, I have mostly Sirius Stock and I'm even prepared to say that this might be a HUGE mistake, but I get run over by by a large bus of Richard Simmons fans and die tomorrow, and never doubt the accuracy and validity of this. I'm sure even opinion based Capt'n Ignoramus and I agree on this !

IF you want data ( the arch enemy and antichrist of the senseless ) I offer you the following statistics collected by 4000 people weekly at the point of sales. These categories of preferred content have been solidly in Sirius's court for a very long time.

You might suggest that XM has superior music in a few cases, as I do. But music formats ( Hey Mel, your Soul station #53 sucks ... too many decades covered ..cut it down to the 60's-70's and remove the funk ) can be changed as are being molded consistently at Sirius. ( Hey Mel too much talking by DJ's across the board ...Yap less )

Don't take my word for it. Here's 48 thousand respondents.

http://www.bridgeratings.com/

Week Music Programming - XM Music Programming - Sirius Programming Variety - XM Programming Variety - Sirius No Commercials - XM No Commercials - Sirius Sports Package - XM Sports Package - Sirius Personalities - XM Personalities - Sirius

9/18/06 8.1 7.2 7.4 6.9 9.4 9.5 8.0 7.3 6.4 7.7
9/25/06 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.1 9.0 8.6 8.4 7.0 6.0 7.2
10/02/06 8.0 7.5 8.1 7.2 9.0 9.0 8.8 7.5 5.5 7.5
10/09/06 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 8.3 8.0 6.0 7.6
10/16/06 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.0 8.8 8.0 8.2 6.2 7.3
10/23/06 7.5 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.2 7.8 6.0 7.0
10/30/06 8.1 7.7 7.5 8.5 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.0 6.4 7.5
11/06/06 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.6 9.0 7.8 8.5 6.2 7.7
11/13/06 7.9 8.5 7.5 8.2 8.5 8.5 7.0 8.5 6.5 7.5
11/20/06 7.8 8.5 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.3 7.5 8.6 6.0 7.7
11/27/06 8.0 8.4 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.6 7.0 8.0 5.5 7.2
12/04/06 8.0 8.3 7.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 7.7 8.3 6.0 7.5
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Old 12-09-2006, 07:42 AM   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
about everyone who follows xmsr & siri closely either knows it or should know it. it is not a secret. right, i know you dug it out of those piles of 'research' lol.

short of XMSR satellites falling out of the sky (actually, even then, since xmsr now has 2 inorbit spares) there is no chance of the bailout terms being met, as the stern effect is over and xmsr continues to maintain a substantial mkt shr lead. taking it one step further there is no reason gm would _WANT_ to bailout given what they are being paid by xmsr (and siri sure as hell can not pay it).

g. parsons responded to a question on the subject of oems changing horses yesterday. he essentially said it isnt going to happen -- either direction. the oems have made their decisions and the difficulties in factor installing both services are insurmountable.

xmsr
honda, gm, nissan, toyota, hyundai (about 60%)

siri
ford, dcx, kia, bmw, vw audi. (about 40%)

thats the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future and there is not very much that can change that.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& &&&&

You minimize the possibility that GM's contract won't be reconfigured. Do you expect Parsons to say " Yeah, we're frankly scared shitless our exclusive contacts will be busted " ?

Fact is.... about eight months ago, XM said only that they were not concerned that the contractual share requirements would be breached ( paraphrased ) .

To your point that there is "no chance the bailout terms" could be met. How would anyone know this when we don't know what the terms are ? While you dismiss the market share gains of Sirius, fact is Sirius will have between 43-44% share by the end of this year. If you think this isn't substantial, I don't know what breathing down the neck of 50% would be.

For all we know the number was 40% and exceeded months ago ?

Lastly, the split is 58% / 42 % .... not 60/40. A few % points makes a BIG difference as XM will soon find out.
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