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Old 12-04-2006, 04:36 PM   #1
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Default 5.9-6.1 Million

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!

Mel has lowered sub guidance for year end to a range of 5.9-6.1 million. Pretty disappointing in my opinion. Free cash flow is still expected for this quarter. Here come the bears!!!!!! Hold on tight, its gonna be a bumpy ride

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061204/nym275.html?.v=18
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Old 12-04-2006, 04:47 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
Pretty disappointing in my opinion.

Really? How so? Seeing that they've gained over 5million subs in about 1 years time.
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Old 12-04-2006, 04:55 PM   #3
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When I do the math, I come up with about 2.6-2.8 million new net subs in one year.... Correct me if I am wrong on that number. I say "disappointing" because I really was thinking that they definitely would meet AND possibly exceed 6.3 million.

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Old 12-04-2006, 05:11 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joesal905
When I do the math, I come up with about 2.6-2.8 million new net subs in one year.... Correct me if I am wrong on that number. I say "disappointing" because I really was think that they definitely would meet AND possibly exceed 6.3 million.
I'm not in "the know" like some on here, but I was thinking 6.3 million may be a bit of a stretch since a lot of the ones in "the know" weren't too keen on Sirius hitting that number. Guidance being lowered to 5.9 million is 400,000 subscribers short, and that is way off.
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:16 PM   #5
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"When I do the math, I come up with about 2.6-2.8 million new net subs in one year...."

You do? How is this? Last summer there were under a million subscriptions.
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:16 PM   #6
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Yea, this is disappointing. But I'm sure they lowered the guidance to a number they could beat when it comes time to announce...which may help down the road when the numbers come out. At least I hope.
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:29 PM   #7
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And you know what ? ..Common sense would suggest that the stock will get a drubbing tomorrow.

That means it will probably go UP instead as the market fools the thinking.

-----------

Also consider that it may be Mel playing to the federal regulators.
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:30 PM   #8
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SMELLS like a lot of ASSUMING going on with numbers from the unknown...
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:31 PM   #9
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Sirius ended 2005 with roughly 3.3 million subscribers, and ended 2004 with about 1.1 million. I am not sure where you are getting your under 1 million subscriptions the past summer.... do some research
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:36 PM   #10
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I'm a big Mel fan and respect him greatly, but I hope with this, he has learned from the Hugh Panero school of business etiquette. That school says STFU when you don't have to say anything.

What was the value of the projection Mel ? ..What did it do for the company.
Hows about you pay attention to business and let the bullshitters here bullshit.
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Old 12-04-2006, 05:43 PM   #11
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you is correct sir. I'm a year behind it seems. Don't think it's Mel's fault. There were COUNTLESS reasons for a slow season this year starting with the recall of all their radios. Radios tanking, radios not available.

When they can simplify the radios to the point of not having to include a radio supporter from INDIA with everyone sold, they will be in much better shape.
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Old 12-04-2006, 06:13 PM   #12
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While I'm disappointed about this, proper perspective needs to be maintained.

XMSR

Q4-2004 added 713,772
Q4-2005 added 898,315
Q4-2006 projected 650,000

Sirius

Q4-2004 added 480,969
Q4-2005 added 1,142,640
Q4-2006 projected 820,000

Still kicking Xm's ass quarter after quarter by 20-30%.

In 2003, < 450K subs were added by BOTH companies. This year it's three times that and we're all pissy with the stocks worth less. Go figure. Next you know, the USA will suspect WMD's in Iraq while Bush pisses the country away over his personal arrogance.

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Old 12-04-2006, 06:42 PM   #13
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I like this whiskerbiscuit chap. Seems to be more realistic than some of the other crazies we got on here.

It's easy to see someone's point when it's not FLAME ON!!!!!
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Old 12-04-2006, 07:18 PM   #14
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Not to burst any bubbles, but that's not the best news. In fact, I would says it's neutral.

If you do some math you'll see that those numbers put them *both* at around 70% of what their Q4 2005 figures where (give or take a few %).

...I'm actually hoping that the price dips a little due to this news and then they in fact manage to squeak out 6.3+. Probably as doubtful as Pluto becoming a planet again anytime soon, but still I'm hopeful.
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Old 12-04-2006, 07:24 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rustytrombone
I like this whiskerbiscuit chap. Seems to be more realistic than some of the other crazies we got on here.

It's easy to see someone's point when it's not FLAME ON!!!!!
And I you, any bugger who knows who Marty Feldman is is okay with me !
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