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Old 12-13-2006, 08:41 PM   #1
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Default November NPD data out

December 13, 2006

November 2006 retail sales, as tracked by NPD, for satellite radio have come in (Click Chart To Enlarge). For the month of November Sirius Satellite Radio picked up 3 points in share over last month, and tallied 59% of the NPD sales in November. This represents 15 consecutive months that Sirius has outperformed XM in NPD tracking.

Overall, year over year sales showed a decline, which is the steepest decline to date this year. The sector saw a decline of about 44%, with XM seeing a 41% decline vs. 45% for Sirius. November sales typically mark the beginning of the holiday rush. The disappointing kick off to the holiday season saw Sirius lower their guidance. Year to date the retail share remains unchanged with Sirius at 58% vs. 42% for XM. While retail sales have been slower, the year to date data for the sector is still above last years pace, but only slightly. Through November, NPD tracked sales are up slightly over 1% over this time frame last year.

Not looking too good.
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Old 12-14-2006, 04:18 AM   #2
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Clearly the softening demand for Sat Radio OVERALL isn't good for XM or SIRIUS. But of course more-so for SIRIUS due to the outrageous 4th quarter predictions, which they sat or held firm to for so long. XM certainly did a better job foreseeing the softening demand.

I think there are many now that feel Sat Radio as an industry is in trouble!
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Old 12-14-2006, 07:16 AM   #3
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well, we expected Nov to be off--lets see what surprises if any dec brings
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Old 12-14-2006, 08:06 AM   #4
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NOT to suggest that there isn't trouble in Mudville, I'm wondering with the proliferation of direct web sales how this impacts reporting by NPD and Bridge who notes extensive declines.

Many are doing free radio offers and buying direct from web sites. This may also be impacted by Internet sales. This is not only good for profitability but also reduces retail sales numbers.

This may be why retail is reported as being off 35-45 % while the net projections by XM and Siri really don't reflect that severity.

It may also be why XM is so flippant about retail ( at least verbally ) .
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Old 12-14-2006, 09:18 AM   #5
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As far as December being a better selling month for sat radio there's this from another thread:

Starting this week, Bridge Ratings has begun asking retail shoppers to provide a list of their top 10 "wish list" electronic items. From
the 4000 national sample this week, 23% were willing to provide their electronic wish list from a list of 48 items. Of the 920 persons
who responded to this questionnaire, 54% were female, 46% were male with the following age breakdown:

12-17 23%
18-24 20%
25-34 17%
35-49 25%
50+ 15%

Composite Top 10 List

1. Apple Video iPod
2. Digital Camera
3. Portable DVD Player
4. Apple iPod Nano
5. GPS Navigation Device
6. Camcorder
7. Apple Shuffle
8. Plasma TV
9. DVD's
10. Cell Phone

Satellite radio ranked 45th out of 48.
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Old 12-16-2006, 09:48 AM   #6
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Default Npd

But they are more concerned with Wal-mart where they average 60- 70 percent of all Satrad radios. Also it is there second largest retailer and it has almost caught Best Buy and passed Circuitless City over a year ago.
That said Sirius has been kicking XM at Best Buy and CC the past year.
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Old 12-18-2006, 08:05 AM   #7
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and according to some people, direct sales have skyrocketed--One person told me one online site sirius sales are 10% higher then last year this holiday season
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Old 12-18-2006, 11:54 AM   #8
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I don't think the satellite radio industry is in trouble, some of the numbers are misleading because last year was AMAZING because of Stern. That just isn't gonna happen again. For some reason Sirius thought it was with their predictions.
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Old 12-18-2006, 12:03 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SISO
I don't think the satellite radio industry is in trouble, some of the numbers are misleading because last year was AMAZING because of Stern. That just isn't gonna happen again. For some reason Sirius thought it was with their predictions.
Exactly. No company can sustain a 100% growth rate, and that's what Sirius had last year.
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Old 12-18-2006, 12:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
Exactly. No company can sustain a 100% growth rate, and that's what Sirius had last year.


While that is true you dont' want to see huge drop offs like we are when neither company is making money and they are counting on huge growth for their already lofty projections.

Large drop offs this early are an very worrisome indication of severe lack of interest in pay radio.
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Old 12-18-2006, 12:20 PM   #11
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with the ipods and $699.99 hdtv's satellite radio is a tough sell this holiday season.
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Old 12-18-2006, 12:25 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam28577
While that is true you dont' want to see huge drop offs like we are when neither company is making money and they are counting on huge growth for their already lofty projections.

Large drop offs this early are an very worrisome indication of severe lack of interest in pay radio.
The huge drop off are because of the Stern effect- last winter was an anomaly if you look at the sales charts. You can't compare last winter to ANYTHING.
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Old 12-18-2006, 02:46 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam28577
Large drop offs this early are an very worrisome indication of severe lack of interest in pay radio.
Adam I have to say I agree. This very much so worries me that on both sides. The apparent soft market is not a good thing. It is like I said in other post, if after lowering guidance SIRIUS and XM both miss, this will be a bad blow to the Sat Radio Industry as whole. I know in some aspects we can separate SIRIUS and XM, but in other aspects you can't.

I've actully had concerns about this for some months. I knew SIRIUS had big time over estimated their guidance and was totally shocked they didn't restate it during the 3rd quarter CC.
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Old 12-18-2006, 02:57 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAB
Adam I have to say I agree. This very much so worries me that on both sides. The apparent soft market is not a good thing. It is like I said in other post, if after lowering guidance SIRIUS and XM both miss, this will be a bad blow to the Sat Radio Industry as whole. I know in some aspects we can separate SIRIUS and XM, but in other aspects you can't.

I've actully had concerns about this for some months. I knew SIRIUS had big time over estimated their guidance and was totally shocked they didn't restate it during the 3rd quarter CC.
I've gotta run here so I don't have time to find the image but, if you look at the satellite growth curve, this year is a correction of the anomaly of last year. You can't count 4Q 2005 and 1Q 2006 in any algorithm because they're totally outside the trend.
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Old 12-18-2006, 03:20 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
I've gotta run here so I don't have time to find the image but, if you look at the satellite growth curve, this year is a correction of the anomaly of last year. You can't count 4Q 2005 and 1Q 2006 in any algorithm because they're totally outside the trend.
Yes, I understand this and I don't disagree. But I still think and this is from my being in stores and having contact with many people in the industry. I think the fire that was behind Sat Radio has basically dwindled down to a small flame. I don't think we'll see terrible 4th quarter reports, but I don't think they will be nearly as rosy as SIRIUS thought they would be by any stretch of the imagination.
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