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Old 12-18-2006, 12:28 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAB
Wow all that in one sentence? I kept looking for a period so I could quote only the necessary part, but there wasn't one. LOL

Anyway, I appreciate your opinion, but I view it differently!

This thread is not about FR, so lets get it back on topic. No more discussion about FR or I'll just close the thread. This is the real problem with FR, all these threads he participates in always become about him and not the topic. There is a reason for that and it isn't because he is smarter, has more information or is credible. You can call it an agenda, you can call it whatever you want, but the fact is threads he particpate in just become lost in the bickering.
According to the order of responses on this thread, you mentioned FR first.

And to get back on topic, the number of subscriptions would reach around 5.9M to 6.0M with a debt of $1.0B to $1.1B which would be horrible going into the next year.
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Old 12-18-2006, 12:36 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hieian
According to the order of responses on this thread, you mentioned FR first.

And to get back on topic, the number of subscriptions would reach around 5.9M to 6.0M with a debt of $1.0B to $1.1B which would be horrible going into the next year.
Debt... I do not think the word means what you think it means.... again, get your facts straight. Sirius still has plenty of money in the bank.
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Old 12-18-2006, 01:34 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hieian
According to the order of responses on this thread, you mentioned FR first.

And to get back on topic, the number of subscriptions would reach around 5.9M to 6.0M with a debt of $1.0B to $1.1B which would be horrible going into the next year.
Actually M4 and then Whiskerbiscuit mentioned him long before I did and clearly that is the direction this thread was heading as usual.

The debt on both sides is pretty horrible and there is a good possibility they will both miss their projections. But both are doing everything they can to make sure they do and this isn't helping their cause. Clearly both sides will have a tough row to hoe beginning with the first quarter of 2007. In the end the doomsayers will be wrong and both XM and SIRIUS will be just fine.
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Old 12-18-2006, 01:36 PM   #34
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I'll not state any opinions here -- only facts, and we'll see if that ticks anyone off. I urge everyone not to discuss ME, but stick to the facts, so the thread isn't destroyed.

This remark really stands out:

Quote:
Sirius still has plenty of money in the bank.
Facts: At 12/31/05, siri had 762M cash in bank, and at 9/30/06, they had 318M, giving them an average cash burn of about $150M/quarter. Assuming Q4 is "typical", they will have just over $150M left at the end of Q4, enough for one quarter's operations, or at most one plus a little.

The above facts are extracted from the most recent 10Q. Should anyone here dispute any of these facts, I respectfully request a reference to your source.

Question: Is it "plenty" when you will be out of cash within 3-4 months?

EDITED, to keep discussion on topic!

Last edited by DAB; 12-18-2006 at 02:08 PM..
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Old 12-18-2006, 02:40 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAB
Actually M4 and then Whiskerbiscuit mentioned him long before I did and clearly that is the direction this thread was heading as usual.

The debt on both sides is pretty horrible and there is a good possibility they will both miss their projections. But both are doing everything they can to make sure they do and this isn't helping their cause. Clearly both sides will have a tough row to hoe beginning with the first quarter of 2007. In the end the doomsayers will be wrong and both XM and SIRIUS will be just fine.
This is not a trajectory that can be sustained without merger of more indebtedness. At some point somethings got to give given the slowing subscriber curve.

2 million subs annually each adding 200 million to the top line isn't enough.
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Old 12-18-2006, 03:00 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
This is not a trajectory that can be sustained without merger of more indebtedness. At some point somethings got to give given the slowing subscriber curve.

2 million subs annually each adding 200 million to the top line isn't enough.
There is little doubt the situation is serious, but I just don't think we are going to see a merger. I see nothing that makes me think it will happen. XM certainly has no incentive to want to do it. SIRIUS has a much bigger incentive, but what do they have to offer? XM has superior technology and why would they want what SIRIUS has? The two systems are not compatible at all from what I can see.

I think in a worse case scenario you have one go bankrupt and is purchased for pennies on a dollar out of bankruptcy by a large media company. But I think we'll continue to see two players.

I do see your point, but I just don't see it happening!
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Old 12-18-2006, 03:26 PM   #37
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Quote:
Facts: At 12/31/05, siri had 762M cash in bank, and at 9/30/06, they had 318M, giving them an average cash burn of about $150M/quarter. Assuming Q4 is "typical", they will have just over $150M left at the end of Q4, enough for one quarter's operations, or at most one plus a little.
Let compare that to XM, for the sake of fairness and "intellectual honesty"...
Facts: At 12/31/05, xmsr had 711M cash in bank, and at 9/30/06, they had 285M, giving them an average cash burn of about $142M/quarter. Assuming Q4 is "typical", they will have just over $143M left at the end of Q4, enough for one quarter's operations, or at most one plus a little.

Here's the 10Q which I got those number from...http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/...0563&Type=HTML

At best, this is an argument that BOTH SDARS providers are in real trouble.
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Old 12-18-2006, 03:42 PM   #38
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Quote:
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At best, this is an argument that BOTH SDARS providers are in real trouble.
RR that is my point and has been all along. This isn't just about how terrible things are for SIRIUS. They are both in trouble. They both have issues and will find it tough in the coming 1st. and possible 2nd. quarter of next year. It just drives folks crazy that we have folks that are only willing to look at SIRIUS, while pretending that XM is doing so much better. Then we get accused of being fanboys and having our head in the sand. It is true that in some segments of the business XM is doing better, but you don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

I am concerned for the Sat Radio Industry... I don't need to highlight how poorly one is doing over the other. They both have a long way to go.
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Last edited by DAB; 12-18-2006 at 03:47 PM..
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Old 12-18-2006, 04:30 PM   #39
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Quote:
Let compare that to XM, for the sake of fairness and "intellectual honesty"...
Facts: At 12/31/05, xmsr had 711M cash in bank, and at 9/30/06, they had 285M, giving them an average cash burn of about $142M/quarter. Assuming Q4 is "typical", they will have just over $143M left at the end of Q4, enough for one quarter's operations, or at most one plus a little.
i didnt mention xmsr, but since you did i will say that neither company has 'plenty' of cash.

Facts: xmsr does have a $450 million loc which makes it comfortable. siri has no such funding which means it will have to dilute again or issue more ltd unless it can get a loc from somewhere which in my experience is hard to do if you are already out of money. maybe this is what they plan to do with the 35-40m shares extra they have registered.

Facts: it should be pointed out that xmsrs true cash burn for the last 3 qtrs has been about 86m/qtr, however -- you seem to have included the $246 million one-time adjustment for a deleveraging charge. while this had to flow thru xmsrs cash flow statement as an 'operating' item, it was solely due to an accounting anomaly and it is not considered as an operating item for measuring cash burn. so, xmsrs cash burn is quite a bit lower than siris, but the main point is that xmsr has appropriate financing if it is needed while siri does not and would have to return to the equity markets for operating capital should they run out.

Opinion: Withheld.
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Old 12-18-2006, 05:03 PM   #40
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i didnt mention xmsr, but since you did i will say that neither company has 'plenty' of cash.
Exactly... This is why it is pointless to just point fingers at one and exclaim how terrible they are doing, while giving the other a pass when the fact is that both have problems. If XM is doing better it isn't by much and they've had a bigger dip in subscribers than SIRIUS, which can't be good. It may cost them less to get the subscribers they do get, well it did, but they are now giving away free tuners and discounting the other ones too. So the next quarterly will be very interesting.
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Old 12-18-2006, 09:33 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
i didn't mention xmsr, but since you did i will say that neither company has 'plenty' of cash.

Facts: xmsr does have a $450 million loc which makes it comfortable. siri has no such funding which means it will have to dilute again or issue more ltd unless it can get a loc from somewhere which in my experience is hard to do if you are already out of money. maybe this is what they plan to do with the 35-40m shares extra they have registered.

Facts: it should be pointed out that xmsrs true cash burn for the last 3 qtrs has been about 86m/qtr, however -- you seem to have included the $246 million one-time adjustment for a deleveraging charge. while this had to flow thru xmsrs cash flow statement as an 'operating' item, it was solely due to an accounting anomaly and it is not considered as an operating item for measuring cash burn. so, xmsrs cash burn is quite a bit lower than siris, but the main point is that xmsr has appropriate financing if it is needed while siri does not and would have to return to the equity markets for operating capital should they run out.

Opinion: Withheld.
Here's what's true about your statement.

Since their not so diluted, XM could sell over 1-1.2 billion shares and raise 1-billion without superseding the dilution of Sirius. This would bring the PPS to parity one suspects. To the downside, they have 100 million less cash and 300 million more debt today than Siri does. I think they also have 100 million or so in bird debt as well.

Fair to say XM is 1-1.3 billion ahead of Siri overall.
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Old 12-18-2006, 09:53 PM   #42
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Quote:
ere's what's true about your statement.
actually, everything in my statement is true.

Quote:
Since their not so diluted, XM could sell over 1-1.2 billion shares and raise 1-billion without superseding the dilution of Sirius.
if xmsr were to sell a billion shares it would certainly raise more than a billion dollars. but your point is taken.

Quote:
This would bring the PPS to parity one suspects. To the downside, they have 100 million less cash and 300 million more debt today than Siri does. I think they also have 100 million or so in bird debt as well.
markets are complicated the main point is that while siri has diluted its shareholders time and again xmsr has been careful not to. as a shareholder in xmsr (now) and in siri (previously) that means a lot to me because i can have confidence in mgmt. to be fair, mel has been much more responsible in this respect.

[/quote]Fair to say XM is 1-1.3 billion ahead of Siri overall.[/quote]

we agree about this -- if you look at siris retained earnings and adjust it for the gain realized on the refinancing, xmsr is is about a billion better off then siri and siri will lose .3-.4 bill more than xmsr this yr, so i think your figure is just about right.

mel has done a great job but he is also having to learn a lot that is different about sr that wasnt that way in terr. radio.
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Old 12-19-2006, 12:32 AM   #43
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6.179

(trying to get back on topic somewhat)
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Old 12-19-2006, 10:21 AM   #44
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I'm just hoping SIRI breaks 6 million.
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Old 12-20-2006, 06:37 AM   #45
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I've said this many times, 2007 will be a make or break year for both companies. Without a merger one or both will go bankrupt or be bought out by a CBS or DirecTV, etc. XM is in better shape financially, but not by much. The only reason I say this is because XM seems to be ahead in cost sutting and their OEM partners seem to be more 'serious' with installing XM in their cars.

I went into a Circuit City yesterday, last year both sat radio companies displays were prominently displayed in the front of the store and in the auto section. Now the only display was over near the CD section, with PLENTY of units for both companies. The retail boom for sat radio is definitely over, the only hope for either/both companies is OEM and tightening their belts.
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