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Old 12-20-2006, 09:44 AM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
I've said this many times, 2007 will be a make or break year for both companies. XM is in better shape financially, but not by much.

The retail boom for sat radio is definitely over, the only hope for either/both companies is OEM and tightening their belts.
Yes I am afraid you and I agree on all counts. I think 2007 is going to be a tough one. XM is better, but as you said not by much. Hopefully the OEM's will allow them to pull it out.

I've noticed the retail sector looks pretty grim, especially compared to last year. The year end results will be interesting to say the least. I think they are both going to hit on the low side of their guidance if they don't both miss it all together. That would really be bad considering they are both just about giving away the farm.
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Old 12-20-2006, 10:09 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by DAB
Yes I am afraid you and I agree on all counts. I think 2007 is going to be a tough one. XM is better, but as you said not by much. Hopefully the OEM's will allow them to pull it out.

I've noticed the retail sector looks pretty grim, especially compared to last year. The year end results will be interesting to say the least. I think they are both going to hit on the low side of their guidance if they don't both miss it all together. That would really be bad considering they are both just about giving away the farm.
When Sirius extended the free radio with subscription back in Sept... and then again in Oct... and then again in November, I knew that they were going to miss guidance. After they reduced it and then started offering all the deals they are now, definitely makes me think that they're worried about even hitting the reduced.
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Old 12-20-2006, 10:47 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
When Sirius extended the free radio with subscription back in Sept... and then again in Oct... and then again in November, I knew that they were going to miss guidance. After they reduced it and then started offering all the deals they are now, definitely makes me think that they're worried about even hitting the reduced.

I agree. If they hit guidance at all it will be on the lower end. I dont' expect them to clear 6 million but we'll see. IF they are smart, the guidance numbers on the low side would be nearly impossible to miss so if they do miss or adjust again I don't have to tell anyone that would be bad.


The biggest problem in my eyes is I'm really worried Sirius will run out of cash before this comming summer especially if this holiday blitz that we all know they are spending lots of money on doesn't work out. I don't think Sirius can hit the equity markets for cash (even if they do its definately not a good thing and a sign that they are in deep trouble) and any long term debt would be junk status and have a very high interest rate.

If you review my previous posts on the issue of a merger I don't think there is a chance in hell of that happening nor do I see Sirius as an attractive buyout. There is just too much dilution and obligation, I think Sirius will either stand on its own and make it or file for bankruptcy protection and try to re-organize some of its obligations. Perhaps even fail.

THere is just no incentive for XM to merge nor really for any company to buy Sirius.

XM isn't really in much better shape, but their cost structure and # of shares outstanding make them a relative value. If any company gets picked up it will be XM. Personally I'd stay the hell out of both companies from an investment stand point and just enjoy the service.
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Old 12-20-2006, 10:51 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by adam28577
I agree. If they hit guidance at all it will be on the lower end. I dont' expect them to clear 6 million but we'll see. IF they are smart, the guidance numbers on the low side would be nearly impossible to miss so if they do miss or adjust again I don't have to tell anyone that would be bad.


The biggest problem in my eyes is I'm really worried Sirius will run out of cash before this comming summer especially if this holiday blitz that we all know they are spending lots of money on doesn't work out. I don't think Sirius can hit the equity markets for cash (even if they do its definately not a good thing and a sign that they are in deep trouble) and any long term debt would be junk status and have a very high interest rate.

If you review my previous posts on the issue of a merger I don't think there is a chance in hell of that happening nor do I see Sirius as an attractive buyout. There is just too much dilution and obligation, I think Sirius will either stand on its own and make it or file for bankruptcy protection and try to re-organize some of its obligations. Perhaps even fail.

THere is just no incentive for XM to merge nor really for any company to buy Sirius.

XM isn't really in much better shape, but their cost structure and # of shares outstanding make them a relative value. If any company gets picked up it will be XM. Personally I'd stay the hell out of both companies from an investment stand point and just enjoy the service.
I'm mostly worried about CPGA- doesn't help you to hit or surpass 6 million if you have to spend $150 to get a $140/year subscription.
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Old 12-20-2006, 11:23 AM   #50
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I have a hunch we might just get a surprise to the upside.
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Old 12-20-2006, 11:47 AM   #51
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put me down for 6,053,000

lets stay on topic please.
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Old 12-20-2006, 12:25 PM   #52
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Yes I am afraid you and I agree on all counts.
Given our history that is shocking!

I think the 'books' will show both companies will make their low end guidance by the EOY. In reality, once the freebie's, etc. are filtered out both will miss their low end guidance by 100,000 to 200,000. But as long as their 'books' show they hit their marks Wall Street might let them slide another quarter, but by mid or 3rd quarter 2007 they better show some REAL improvements.

Last edited by Satradioman; 12-20-2006 at 12:28 PM..
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Old 12-20-2006, 07:01 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
When Sirius extended the free radio with subscription back in Sept... and then again in Oct... and then again in November, I knew that they were going to miss guidance. After they reduced it and then started offering all the deals they are now, definitely makes me think that they're worried about even hitting the reduced.
Yes, that was a pretty good indicator that they were getting worried. Of course XM is doing the same thing... so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Given our history that is shocking!

I think the 'books' will show both companies will make their low end guidance by the EOY. In reality, once the freebie's, etc. are filtered out both will miss their low end guidance by 100,000 to 200,000. But as long as their 'books' show they hit their marks Wall Street might let them slide another quarter, but by mid or 3rd quarter 2007 they better show some REAL improvements.
Yes it is rather shocking. You just can't argue with logic sometimes. I think you make a well thought out and logical argument. You didn't need numbers or facts to support what you can see going on with your own eyes.

I agree with your last paragraph too, 2007 will be the make it or break year, no doubt about it!
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Old 12-20-2006, 09:30 PM   #54
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When was the last time XM lowered guidence? Did they change their target for year end since summer?
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Old 12-21-2006, 08:44 AM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adam28577
When was the last time XM lowered guidence? Did they change their target for year end since summer?
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR)
Q2 2006 Earnings Conference Call
July 27 2006, 10:00 am ET


" With regulatory uncertainties concerning plug-and-play radios, internal issues I have described, and our current performance in the marketplace, we believe it is prudent to reduce our existing guidance to a range of 8.2 million to 7.7 million subscribers at year-end 2006. "

Panero
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Old 12-21-2006, 06:22 PM   #56
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This is kind of cool.... Bridge 12/20 reports....

During Q4 of 2005, Sirius added 1.1 million new subscribers - XM added another 898,315 for a total sector addition of 2 million for the quarter. Based on estimates by both companies projections for Q4 2006 are now : Sirius 881,000 (-22%) and XM 500,000 (-44%) for a total of 1.3 million for Q4. Bridge Ratings is projecting sales will be off 700,000 units from last year at this time. (-35%) compared to Q4 2005.

.................................................. ..................................................

If you assume Bridge's 881 and 500 are +/- correct for Q4-2006, and I do, consider not only is XM down double SIRI for this quarter, but if you average 2005 and 2006 Q4's, Siri will be up 8.6% while XM will be down 37.5%.

This is mathimatically valid as a long term trend.

Siri might not be doing well, but XM simply failed to execute and ramp when the opportunity was available.

Their loss, Siri's gain.
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Old 12-21-2006, 10:12 PM   #57
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The problem is where XM is in the growth curve and retention. Sirius is going to be seeing these problems next year, especially given the rapid growth they have experienced. This will not be a long term trend and the margin will close significantly.
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Old 12-25-2006, 02:56 AM   #58
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6,000,150
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Old 12-25-2006, 06:50 PM   #59
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hey, what's up, I have not followed the deal for about 5 months?
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Old 12-26-2006, 07:47 AM   #60
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Quote:
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hey, what's up, I have not followed the deal for about 5 months?
Well, let's see.

Sirius bought XM for 21.00 per share with FCC merger approval almost assured. Howard had a bastard love child with Robin. Beth got caught nailing Richard Christy in the Sirius parking garage. Joe Clayton reports great results using the Ab Lounge and Hydrocut. Ford is going to ramp up production of Sirius units right after they file Chapter 11 in 2009. Both companies will pay you $34.00 to take a radio. We're still losing boatloads of money as investors. Anthony got a set of platform shoes for Christmas. Eric the Midget did not fly embarrassing Howard and his ill informed prognostications. The SEC limited stock issuances at Sirius to 345.3 Trillion shares. All 1089 Nascar fans are leaving XM for Sirius. Oprah flopped as a big draw. And lastly, Mel has video planned for 2008, right after the second coming of Christ who has preferred shares.

Other than that. Not much.
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