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Old 12-14-2006, 10:25 PM   #1
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Default 2010 projections for Satrad's winner

Without getting too anal.

Let's suggest that Moffet is right ( below ) and project these numbers based in 16 million annual ( assumed flat ) auto sales with XM having 60% OEM market.

2007...roughly 36% of cars will be loaded with a subscriber rate of 52%.
2008 roughly 42 % of cars loaded and a sub rate of 49%.
2009 49 % loaded with a sub rate of 46%
2010 55% loaded with a 44% uptake rate.

2007 XM nets 1.79 million Sirius 1.19 million.
2008 XM nets 1.975 Sirius 1.31 million
2009 XM 2.148 Sirius 1.432
2010 XM 2.32 million Sirius 1.54 million.

Total XM gain ( over Sirius ) for four years is 2.75 million. IF you factor in 25%of the retail market with 60/40 Sirius the net difference is about 2.0 million subs in favor of XM.

This puts XM at 17.5 million and Sirius at 13.4 million IF Sirius can't pry any OEM contracts away in 2010. XM should go black ( you'll never go back ) in 2008 and Siri in 2009. This is in line with industry projections.

Considering this is four years away and that no one will make a dime under 10-11 million subs each, I wouldn't recommend either company as a rip-roaring investment without a merger. The pot's not big enough for two chickens.

If Sirius can cut into XM's OEM contracts by 2010 ( a reasonable assumption ) XM is very screwed. IF they can't, then Siri is very screwed.

If Sirius can cut into XM's OEM contracts they will be better off, but still no home run.

Great idea investing in satrad.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$




XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., which make up the sector's duopoly, are betting that customers will buy a subscription for the radio when the device is installed as standard equipment in new cars.

Effectively all of the car makers have committed to either XM or Sirius in exclusive long-term installation agreements. XM has agreements with companies that produce about 60 percent of all cars sold in North America, including General Motors, Toyota and Honda. Sirius has locked up the other 40 percent, with Ford, Chrysler and BMW its top partners.

In 2006, about 27 percent of the new cars manufactured had satellite radios, according to Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett. He expects that percentage to increase to 55 percent by 2010.

The years "2007 to 2009 will represent a significant increase in not only the number of makes and models available with factory install, but the percentage of cars sold with a factory installed satellite radio receiver," said UBS analyst Lucas Binder said.

Moffett expects the conversion rate to decrease to 44 percent by 2010 as the radios become available in cars other than the high-end models they are most commonly found in today. The assumption is that people who can afford a car that costs more than $35,000 will be more willing to take on another fixed monthly cost.

The rate "may also suffer as iPod integration in new cars rises," the analyst said. Apple is developing a version of its wildly popular MP3 player that can be played over car stereos, giving listeners a break from commercials without the subscription cost.
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Old 12-15-2006, 12:08 PM   #2
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Neither one of them is "very screwed". Eventually.. and I'm thinking 2008, they will both be making money, so who cares who makes more... as long as they are making it.

Furthermore, your 60/40 is a bit too generous for XM, I've seen better estimates of 56/44 AND you are making the huge assumption that Toyota actually gets off their ass and does some OEM installs soon. You are also ASSuming that Sirius has the exact same take rate on the OEM's. Since Sirius doesn't release those numbers, we don't know. Furthermore, one could extrapolate that since Sirius' retail pull is stronger, then that would equate to a higher OEM take rate since it's the "buzz" brand right now.

Of course, I'm not guessing any of those things, just playing devil's advocate.

Last edited by NeuroRip; 12-15-2006 at 12:12 PM..
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Old 12-15-2006, 01:25 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NeuroRip
Neither one of them is "very screwed". Eventually.. and I'm thinking 2008, they will both be making money, so who cares who makes more... as long as they are making it.

Furthermore, your 60/40 is a bit too generous for XM, I've seen better estimates of 56/44 AND you are making the huge assumption that Toyota actually gets off their ass and does some OEM installs soon. You are also Assuming that Sirius has the exact same take rate on the OEM's. Since Sirius doesn't release those numbers, we don't know. Furthermore, one could extrapolate that since Sirius' retail pull is stronger, then that would equate to a higher OEM take rate since it's the "buzz" brand right now.

Of course, I'm not guessing any of those things, just playing devil's advocate.
All fair and valid points. I wanted to present this as I have not seen anyone do future projection models done based of OEM content and share.

I think the mix is 58/42 today in most print. I also think that Siri will have a lower OEM churn due to their superior content. This is hypothesis as are these projections.

What goes " against " Sirius of course is if auto sales increase as some suggest will happen and if the economy improves allowing more people, more miles in their car at which point XM's OEM majority would really pay off.
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Old 12-15-2006, 03:49 PM   #4
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They're both winners!
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Old 12-15-2006, 10:38 PM   #5
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I also think that Siri will have a lower OEM churn due to their superior content.
do you not think that if siris oem churn rate was lower then xmsrs they would be releasing it? I do.

also, the 'superior content' argument is starting to wear pretty thin these days. at one time, the huge spend for stern made a lot of people conclude that. but right now, the claim is hard to substantiate. it would seem that xmsr now leads the content race in every category except stern vs. o/a. the big one, music, is not even a close competition anymore (eg read the latest lefsetz letter, read the posts on this board about such things as siris xmas offerings, country music, etc.).

it is a subjective thing, and my opinion is no better then yours i know. but you cant ignore xmsrs content successes for ever at some point they have to get credit for doing it right.

i dont think xmsr is doing a very good job of telling people about it though.
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Old 12-16-2006, 08:59 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
do you not think that if siris oem churn rate was lower then xmsrs they would be releasing it? I do.

also, the 'superior content' argument is starting to wear pretty thin these days. at one time, the huge spend for stern made a lot of people conclude that. but right now, the claim is hard to substantiate. it would seem that xmsr now leads the content race in every category except stern vs. o/a. the big one, music, is not even a close competition anymore (eg read the latest lefsetz letter, read the posts on this board about such things as siris xmas offerings, country music, etc.).

it is a subjective thing, and my opinion is no better then yours i know. but you cant ignore xmsrs content successes for ever at some point they have to get credit for doing it right.

i dont think xmsr is doing a very good job of telling people about it though.
I think Sirius's chrun numbers are probably close to XM's.

Content is a subjective thing...but I think overall more people would agree with Sirius having better content.

Break it down:
Music- Call it a push. Both provide similar content.
News- Again a push. XM could of taken the lead with Fox being off Sirius, but that didn't last long. (For the record-I didn't mind seeing Fox go.)
Talk- Clear advantage Sirius.
Sports- MLB vs NFL and NASCAR no contest. Advantage Sirius.
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Old 12-16-2006, 10:38 AM   #7
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Music- Call it a push. Both provide similar content.
NOT. The biggest single difference between the two (contentwise) is music maybe you arent that interested in music but to those that are see a big difference. xmsr runs off and leaves siri in this category. there are a half dozen entire genres of music that siri does not even cover that xmsr does. besdies that siri has nothing remotely competitive with some of the best channels on xmsr like deeptracks, fine turning, or hear music. siri has no significant country music presence. siri is too busy using its bandwidth for elvis channels, stones channels, who channels, howard channels, jimmy buffet channels, etc., that they dont even cover the music spectrum reasonably.

siri does not have anything approaching xmsrs programs like artist confidential or then again live etc. and the dylan show (which is probly the most highly-acclaimed show on sat radio). yes siri gets some of the same promotional performances xmsr does, but xmsr has gone well beyond that with the most important people in music. siri has plastered names like m&m on their channels (at a price) but it adds nothing to the music content.

Quote:
News- Again a push. XM could of taken the lead with Fox being off Sirius, but that didn't last long. (For the record-I didn't mind seeing Fox go.)
agree on this.

Quote:
Talk- Clear advantage Sirius.
only if you like stern which a lot of people dont and xmsr otherwise has a big advantage in the talk area -- add womens programming with the take5 channel plus oprah and it is a tossup unless stern is the deciding factor. for most people he is not.[/quote]

Quote:
Sports- MLB vs NFL and NASCAR no contest. Advantage Sirius.
mlb trumps all other sports on the radio. but right now xmsr appears to have an advantage in ncaa sports which are probably 2nd most important.

nfl on the radio is a waste. nascar coverage is not a waste, but the races are. when all is said & done xmsr appears to still have the advantage with its nascar coverage -- better shows, dalejr, jj, etc. siri may be surprised just how few people are interested in listen to the actual races on the radio. i think xmsr knew that which is why they wouldnt pay the big money for it. apparently the number going to siri for nascar isnt just huge.

like i said before all subjective - but anyone who thinks the music is the 'same' is not paying attn to the music programming.

Last edited by FlagRiot; 12-16-2006 at 10:42 AM..
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Old 12-16-2006, 10:43 AM   #8
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Mods- why isn't this flagriot banned yet???? He could be the most obvious troll I've seen in quite some time.

XM has a clear advantage in talk? Yes, they have Oprah and a couple of other things but Sirius has Martha Stewart, Cosmo, Lime, Maxim, OutQ and Sirius Stars.

NFL is a waste on radio? I'm not even going to comment, that speaks for itself.
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Old 12-16-2006, 11:31 AM   #9
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Quote:
Mods- why isn't this flagriot banned yet????
good question. surely they dont want none of my kind around here. you know these alternative viewpoints can be disruptive and incite misbehavior amongst the whole board. if flagriot keeps posting here the whole board"ll go to hell.

anybody that thinks nfl on radio is lousy content ought not to be posting here and for damn sure anybody that thinks xmsr has better talk programming ought to be out on his butt. and damn sure anybody that points out siris weak financial position compared to xmsrs in the stock forum s/b history.

we dont want no independent thinkers round here they jist breed trouble and insurrection.
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Old 12-16-2006, 11:41 AM   #10
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XM has a clear advantage in talk? Yes, they have Oprah and a couple of other things but Sirius has Martha Stewart, Cosmo, Lime, Maxim, OutQ and Sirius Stars.
yeah, a couple of other things -- oprah consisting of 8-9 shows, take 5 with ellen, tyra, and others. gma radio. air america. o&a. more comedy although some of it isnt great.

other then stern xmsrs talk lineup is at least as good as siris and in terms of what is attractive to women xmsr runs off and leaves siri.

but the music is the big difference and where xmsr is really much better then siri -- the rest of it is just whatever you prefer stern or o&a but in the music area xmsr is changing the way people think about radio while siri is just repeating fms mistakes.
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Old 12-16-2006, 11:53 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlagRiot
NOT. The biggest single difference between the two (contentwise) is music maybe you arent that interested in music but to those that are see a big difference. xmsr runs off and leaves siri in this category. there are a half dozen entire genres of music that siri does not even cover that xmsr does. besdies that siri has nothing remotely competitive with some of the best channels on xmsr like deeptracks, fine turning, or hear music. siri has no significant country music presence. siri is too busy using its bandwidth for elvis channels, stones channels, who channels, howard channels, jimmy buffet channels, etc., that they dont even cover the music spectrum reasonably.

siri does not have anything approaching xmsrs programs like artist confidential or then again live etc. and the dylan show (which is probly the most highly-acclaimed show on sat radio). yes siri gets some of the same promotional performances xmsr does, but xmsr has gone well beyond that with the most important people in music. siri has plastered names like m&m on their channels (at a price) but it adds nothing to the music content.



agree on this.



only if you like stern which a lot of people dont and xmsr otherwise has a big advantage in the talk area -- add womens programming with the take5 channel plus oprah and it is a tossup unless stern is the deciding factor. for most people he is not.


mlb trumps all other sports on the radio. but right now xmsr appears to have an advantage in ncaa sports which are probably 2nd most important.

nfl on the radio is a waste. nascar coverage is not a waste, but the races are. when all is said & done xmsr appears to still have the advantage with its nascar coverage -- better shows, dalejr, jj, etc. siri may be surprised just how few people are interested in listen to the actual races on the radio. i think xmsr knew that which is why they wouldnt pay the big money for it. apparently the number going to siri for nascar isnt just huge.

like i said before all subjective - but anyone who thinks the music is the 'same' is not paying attn to the music programming.[/QUOTE]

I got Sirius because of the music. I listened online at work to both companies free online trial before I decided to go with Sirius. There is stuff XM plays that Sirius doesn't that I wish Sirius would play, but overall I liked Sirius better.

The reason I called music a push is there are different areas that both excel in. We could point counter point music all day.

As far as sports go. I would not downplay the importance of NFL or Nascar. I wouldn't say XM has the edge in NCAA either. Per Sirius Web Site:
SIRIUS airs more college sports than any other radio outlet, providing play-by-play from more than 150 college teams around the nation from conferences including the Pac 10, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic 10, Big West, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern, Sun Belt, West Coast, Mountain West, Western Athletic, Conference USA, Colonial Athletic Association, Horizon League and Ivy League.

SIRIUS is also the Official Satellite Radio Partner of Alabama, Army, Auburn, Colorado, Florida, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, Navy, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC, Vanderbilt and West Virginia

Looks pretty good to me.
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Old 12-16-2006, 12:41 PM   #12
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agree ncaa is up on the list.

supposedly sec is going to sign en masse next year and they are insisting on both sides of the games being aired where ever they go. i believe xmsr has more capability in to do this and expect xmsr to end up with that contract which will decimate siris ncaa coverage. xmsrs approach to grabbing entire conferences makes good sense to me since the interest tends to be localized.

the music issue is one as you say could be debated all day long. it comes down to what you want hits versus creativity in the programming.

xmsr has a competitive advantage in that they have more music and more genres. but a bigger deal is the way it is programmed - if i have an ipod i can easily replicate most of siris music channels. i cannot replicate xmsrs channels with an ipod.

if you are competing against the ipod and i think both are then xmsr has something to offer that neither ipod or siri can offer.
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Old 12-16-2006, 12:53 PM   #13
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The reason I haven't banned Flag_Riot (and I'm speaking only for myself here) is that he makes arguments. Sometimes they're backed by facts, often they're backed by his opinion, but he makes an argument. If others are unconvinced, they make counter-arguments. As long as FR is not attacking members, or leading on others to attack him, I'll let him be.
Now, please understand, I also think he has rose-colored glasses on when looking at XM, and sees every move of Sirius' in the worst possible light. Example: When XM lowers guidence it is a honest and smart move looking at things as they are; when Sirius lower guidence, it's evidence of the bottom falling out, and Mel's conspriricy to mislead investors. I'm sure he believes the NFL is a waste (because football is a TV sport) but having the BCS games on XM is brilliant (because not all fans can spend their lives in front of TV's) and doesn't see that as a contridiction.
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Old 12-16-2006, 01:36 PM   #14
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RoadRunner

i appreciate the intellectual honesty.

Quote:
Example: When XM lowers guidence it is a honest and smart move looking at things as they are; when Sirius lower guidence, it's evidence of the bottom falling out, and Mel's conspriricy to mislead investors.
make no mistake -- the retail problems are problems for both cos -- i have only made the point, correctly, that xmsr is positioned better wrt oems so it is less of a problem for xmsr then for siri. with xmsr having the japanese oems exclusively, plus gm & hyundai, they own 60% of the oem business and these oems seem dedicated to significant penetration at lower cost 9other than gm) then siris oems.

mels conspiracy? it is possible that mel simply made a mistake. but xmsr has been saying since may, 'retail is weak' and mel has been blustering about 'it isnt weak at siri'. well, as it turned out, it was damned weak at siri. after xmsrs 2nd reduction, mel actually increased guidance 100k an obvious slap at xmsr (most would agree that there was no reason for them to have done so) and now they have to cut it back. anyway you look at it xmsr was more up front with its guidance - unless you believe mel couldnt see what everyone else was seeing until a month ago, and i dont believe that.

Quote:
I'm sure he believes the NFL is a waste (because football is a TV sport) but having the BCS games on XM is brilliant (because not all fans can spend their lives in front of TV's) and doesn't see that as a contridiction.
i think ncaa coverage is more important then nfl because nfl games run on sunday afternoon when everyone is home to watch them. i dont have a big opinion on the bcs games but if xmsr gets the sec i do believe it is a very important acquisition because it pretty much cements their leadership in ncaa coverage whereas right now it is sort of a tossup.
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Old 12-16-2006, 02:40 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by FlagRiot
agree ncaa is up on the list.

supposedly sec is going to sign en masse next year and they are insisting on both sides of the games being aired where ever they go. i believe xmsr has more capability in to do this and expect xmsr to end up with that contract which will decimate siris ncaa coverage. xmsrs approach to grabbing entire conferences makes good sense to me since the interest tends to be localized.

the music issue is one as you say could be debated all day long. it comes down to what you want hits versus creativity in the programming.

xmsr has a competitive advantage in that they have more music and more genres. but a bigger deal is the way it is programmed - if i have an ipod i can easily replicate most of siris music channels. i cannot replicate xmsrs channels with an ipod.

if you are competing against the ipod and i think both are then xmsr has something to offer that neither ipod or siri can offer.
Why would XM be better suited for the SEC? Auburn, Alababma, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee already have exclusive deals with Sirius. If 9 of the 12 members already have a good relationship with Sirius I don't think they would leave for XM unless the money is astounding. Sirius covers both sides for every NFL game, so why wouldn't they be better suited to cover both sides in the SEC?

As far as programing goes. One of my main reasons for getting sat radio in the first place was the amount of money I was spending on CD's was getting out of hand. While I agree XM plays a deeper selection of more artists, I will disagree with wanting Sirius because it plays just hits. If you look at some of my posts in the music threads I would like Sirius to play a wider variety of artisits, and go deeper with more popular artists, but at the same time I don't want to hear a 'B' side song from a one hit wonder band.

With XM I can hear one of my favorite bands like Porcupine Tree that I can't hear on Sirius, but I've got to listen to 20 minutes of crap I don't like to hear a band or song I like.
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