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Old 01-06-2007, 10:53 PM   #1
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Default Finally...The OEM Picture Broken Down

Let's see Jacoby spin this. Some of these jackass analysts keep spewing crap getting Ma and Pa to lose their hard earned money... so that they can get their bonus.

This from SSG and an excellent piece if there ever was.


The OEM Picture Broken Down
January 6, 2007

The satellite radio world seems to feel that this is the year that OEM's will rise and become a determining factor with these equities. Many statements are bandied about, but at the end of the day it is not who the deal is with that is important. It is how many installations happen, what the take rate is, and how much revenue the satellite radio gets to keep.

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

First lets look at the "who's-who" list:



Audi

Exclusive factory Install deal with Sirius. Audi had record sales in 2006 and sold 90,116 vehicles, coming in up 8.5% from 2005. Audi is targeting an 80% installation rate in the 2007 model year. Using 2006 sales, this represents roughly 72,100 installs. Audi buyers get a 3 month promotional package for Sirius.

BMW

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. BMW had a record sales year and sold 313,603 vehicles, coming in up 2.1% from 2005. The installation rate for BMW is not known, but covers all models. BMW buyers get a 1 year package for Sirius

Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Chrysler had a decline of 7% but did sell 2,142,505 vehicles in 2006. Chrysler is now targeting an installation rate of 40%. Based on the 2006 figures this would represent about 858,200 units. Chrysler buyers get a 1 year promotional package for Sirius. Chrysler vehicles are counted as subscribers from the date of manufacture. Chrysler pays for a 1 year subscription which Sirius books as deferred revenue. The consumer gets a 1 year promotion, and the revenue is reported as the service is delivered. Ford is handled in a similar fashion, but for 6 months rather than a year.

Ford/Lincoln/Mercury

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Ford had a decline of 8% but did sell 2,900,000 vehicles in 2006. The installation rate for Ford is unknown, but they are increasing the factory install program to 21 models this year vs. 4 in 2006. Ford byers typically get a 6 month promotional package for Sirius, but certain deals have had Sirius packaged for up to 3 years.

General Motors

Exclusive factory install deal with XM. GM sales had a decline of 8.7% but did sell 4,100,000 vehicles in 2006. GM is targeting installations of 1,800,000 vehicles in 2007, up from 1,600,000 that was targeted for 2006. GM buyers typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM.

Honda/Acura

Exclusive factory install deal with XM. Honda reported their 10th consecutive year of sales growth, setting another company record in the process. Honda sold 1,509,358 vehicles in 2006. Honda is targeting the installation of 650,000 XM units during 2007. Honda buyers typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM.

Hyundai

Exclusive factory install deal with XM. Hyundai reported record sales of 455,520 cars in 2006. Hyundai is targeting 100% factory installs across their platform for 2007. Hyundai buyers typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM. Unlike GM promotional subscriber, for which XM receives revenue, the Hyundai installations will not be counted as subscribers during the promotional period. Upon completion of the 3 month trial, those that elect to keep the service will then be counted as subscribers. Those that do not elect to keep the service will not count as deactivations because they were not counted as subscribers in the first place. The determining factor for whether an install is counted as a subscriber ties to revenue. If there is revenue received during the promotional period, then it is counted as a subscription. If no revenue is involved it is not counted as a subscription.

Isuzu

Exclusive installation program with XM. Isuzu likely sold less than 5,000 vehicles in the U.S. during 2006. Whether or not they are even installing XM units is not known. Given the sales volume, I would not expect much of a contribution from Isuzu in 2007.

Jaguar

Exclusive port/dealer install program with Sirius. Jaguar sold 20,683 vehicles in 2006 down 32% from 2005. The Ford owned company’s installation rate is unknown. Jaguar buyers typically get a 3 to 6 month promotional package for Sirius.

Kia

Exclusive factory install program with Sirius. Kia sales were at 294,301 up 6.7% for the year. Kia is targeting a 100% factory install program for the 2008 model year. The installations in 2007 are unknown.

Land Rover

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Land rover had a record year selling 47,774 vehicles. Installation rate is unknown. Land rover buyers typically get a 3 to 6 month promotional package for Sirius.

Mazda

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Mazda sold 268,768 vehicles in 2006 up 4% over 2005. Installation rates are unknown. Mazda buyers typically get a 3 month promotion for Sirius.

Mercedes Benz/Bentley

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Mercedes/Bentley sold 248,100 vehicles in 2006 up 11%. Mercedes is installing Sirius in 66% of all vehicles. Based on 2006 numbers this would represent over 165,000 installs. Bentley offers 100% factory installs. Mercedes Benz buyers typically get a 3 month promotion for Sirius. Bentley buyers get a lifetime subscription.

Mitsubishi

Exclusive factory install program with Sirius. Mitsubishi sold 118,558 vehicles in 2006 down 4.4%. Mitsubishi is targeting factory installs in 4 model lines for this year. The installation rate is unknown. Mitsubishi buyers get a 3 month promotion for Sirius.

Nissan/Infiniti

Exclusive factory install program for XM. Port and dealer install program for Sirius. Nissan sold just under 1,000,000 vehicles in 2006. This was down from 1,100,000 they sold in 2005. Nissan is targeting an extensive factory install program with XM in the 2008 model year. Nissan has stated that they anticipate nearly 1,000,000 factory installs by 2010. The status of the port and dealer install program with Sirius beyond the 2007 model year has not been announced. Nissan is one of the OEM's that analysts tend to put entirely in the XM column. The split between Sirius and XM has never been made public, but conversations with various parties seem to indicate that at a safe assumption is that it is near parity and the provider with better retail share seems to get an advantage in port/dealer installs. SDARS investors need to consider Nissan closely when trying to determine OEM share. There are installs for both Sirius and XM, and that needs to be accounted for in projection models. Similar to the Hyundai deal, XM will not count factory installations as subscribers during the promotional period (no revenue).

Porsche

Exclusive factory deal with XM. Porsche sold 36,096 vehicles in 2006, up 7% over 2005 sales. Installation targets for Porsche are not available, Buyers of Porsches typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM.

Saab

Installation deal with XM. Saab sold 36,349 vehicles in the U.S. in 2006. The installation rate for SAAB is unknown. Buyers of Saab typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM.

Subaru

Subaru has a factory install program with both Sirius and XM. The service you get depends on the model you select. Subaru sold 200,703 vehicles in 2006 which represents a record for the manufacturer. Installation rates for Sirius and XM are unknown. Buyers of Subaru's typically get a 3 month promotional package for Sirius or XM.

Suzuki

Exclusive deal with XM. Suzuki sold 100,990 vehicles in 2006 up an impressive 23% from 2005. Installation rates are unknown. Suzuki buyers typically get a 3 month promotional package for XM.

Toyota/Lexus

Toyota has a factory install deal with XM and a Port/Dealer install program with Sirius. Toyota sold 2,540,000 vehicles in 2006. Installation rates for factory installs are unknown, and the split on port and dealer installs are also unknown. Toyota is another manufacturer that analysts tend to put wholly into the XM OEM column because of the existence of a factory install program. To date, the factory install program, which was announced some time ago has not been very extensive. Research indicates that port and dealer installs still make up a bigger share of satellite radio installs by a wide margin. The split between Sirius and XM is also unknown. Indications that installs are near parity but favor the retail leader have been made. It should also be noted that the split varies regionally. Penske, the biggest Toyota dealer in the U.S installs Sirius. Buyers of Toyota typically get a 3 month promotional package for Sirius or XM. For XM, the factory installed units from Toyota and Lexus will not be counted as subs during the promotional period (the revenue issue).

Volvo

Exclusive factory install deal with Sirius. Volvo sold 116,067 vehicles in the U.S. The installation rates for Volvo are unknown. A Volvo buyer typically gets a 3 month promotional package for Sirius.

VW

Exclusive factory install program with Sirius. VW sold 235,140 vehicles in 2006, up 4.9%. VW is an targeting 80% installation rate this year. Based on 2006 figures, this would represent a bit over 188,000 units. VW buyers typically get a 3 month promotional package for Sirius.

There are some other deals in place as well, but the numbers are not substantial.

For Sirius part they claim that they will start off 2007 with 132 models in factory install programs.

XM claims, "our automotive partners represent nearly 60% of all new automobile sales in the U.S."

XM does indeed have deals in place with OEM’s that represent roughly 60% of U.S. auto sales. Many people confuse XM's statement to mean that XM has the only opportunity for installs available for 60% of the OEM market. We caution our readers to remember that some of these deals (22.51% have deals in place with both companies, be it factory install or port and dealer install) also have relationships with Sirius. By contrast, Sirius could claim that they have automotive partners that represent nearly 63% of the U.S. market. The biggest player in question is Toyota who finished 2006 with 15% of the market. Toyota equates to a "swing state" in an election, and it depends on what type of install (chads) you count. As with a swing state, opinions will vary, and passions may run high with this subject. The chart above breaks down the OEM's, their respective sales, their respective market share, and how these deals break down by satellite radio provider.

The point of this article is to clarify what the deals are and to point out that perception sometimes does not equate to reality. As we have said before, it is not the market share of the OEM that really matter. It is how many installs there are, what the take rate is, the cost of the installs, and the amount of revenue that the satellite radio equity gets to keep going forward.
1/06/2007 04:26:00 PM

3 comments
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Old 01-07-2007, 12:22 AM   #2
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Default SIRIUS could pick up GM OEM

GM can cancel the XMSR contract with GM
This agreement is subject to renegotiation if four years after the commencement of commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter General Motors does not achieve and maintain specified installation levels, starting with 1.24 million units after four years and thereafter increasing by the lesser of 600,000 units per year and amounts proportionate to our share of the satellite digital radio market. There can be no assurance as to the outcome of any such renegotiations. General Motors' exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, four years after we commenced commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter, our mobile aftermarket share falls below 40% if there are two satellite radio providers in the United States, or below 33% if there are three satellite radio providers in the United States.

http://sec.edgar-online.com/2002/04/.../Section10.asp

This information came from the SEC (Security Exchange Commission).
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Old 01-07-2007, 06:40 AM   #3
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Wow...that's a comprihensive list!
Should this be added to the SBS "knowledge base"?
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Old 01-07-2007, 07:58 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nationwide
GM can cancel the XMSR contract with GM
This agreement is subject to renegotiation if four years after the commencement of commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter General Motors does not achieve and maintain specified installation levels, starting with 1.24 million units after four years and thereafter increasing by the lesser of 600,000 units per year and amounts proportionate to our share of the satellite digital radio market. There can be no assurance as to the outcome of any such renegotiations. General Motors' exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, four years after we commenced commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter, our mobile aftermarket share falls below 40% if there are two satellite radio providers in the United States, or below 33% if there are three satellite radio providers in the United States.

http://sec.edgar-online.com/2002/04/.../Section10.asp

This information came from the SEC (Security Exchange Commission).
Well, I owe Flag Riot ( who should have never been banned and thereby the lack of participants and members to SBS compared to other sites IMHO ) and apology. He said this was public, I was sure it wasn't !

Sorry FR.... once again you added value.
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Old 01-07-2007, 08:06 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siriusurfer
Wow...that's a comprehensive list!
Should this be added to the SBS "knowledge base"?
What amazes me about this is EVERYBODY including Motley Fool, Orbitcast, Forbes, Yahoo, The Street, Bob Peck, Jacoby, Bridge ...I mean EVERYBODY.... ( even us ) has touted that XM should be invested in / or has the lead with 60% of the OEM market. No one did an analysis like this before the SSG piece.

Analysts and writers are lazy asses IMHO. We research for fun, this is their jobs ... and they do it poorly, as is demonstrated here.

I'm really disappointed with the Fool ( TMF ) that I subscribe to and enjoy. They Pick XMSR at 30.00 bucks. Drop them at 13.00-14.00 and then publish mag-pie 60% OEM share numbers. Lazy Tom. Just Lazy. It's not like you don't have these resources for research.
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Old 01-07-2007, 02:41 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siriusurfer
Wow...that's a comprihensive list!
Should this be added to the SBS "knowledge base"?
That's the great thing about the kb...it's user-edited! take this, make sure you include a link to the original material, and add it where appropriate.

As BenDee likes to say, it can't be sucessful without your help!

Last edited by RoadRunner; 01-07-2007 at 02:45 PM..
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Old 01-07-2007, 05:57 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nationwide
GM can cancel the XMSR contract with GM
This agreement is subject to renegotiation if four years after the commencement of commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter General Motors does not achieve and maintain specified installation levels, starting with 1.24 million units after four years and thereafter increasing by the lesser of 600,000 units per year and amounts proportionate to our share of the satellite digital radio market. There can be no assurance as to the outcome of any such renegotiations. General Motors' exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, four years after we commenced commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter, our mobile aftermarket share falls below 40% if there are two satellite radio providers in the United States, or below 33% if there are three satellite radio providers in the United States.

http://sec.edgar-online.com/2002/04/.../Section10.asp

This information came from the SEC (Security Exchange Commission).

NW,

I don't want to steal your well deserved thunder, but I think your posting warrants it's own thread, and invite you to post it thusly. I can't remember a more important or relevant document that needs to be considered. In fact, since that 40% has been breached, it appears to me on the outset that Sirius does have a full opportunity to either gain or share GM's lucrative business.

This was also there.... which I suspect, and have suspected will be how things play out if a merger doesn't happen.

From your link.............

" In February 2000, we signed an agreement with Sirius Radio to develop a
unified standard for satellite radios, which will facilitate the ability of
consumers to purchase one radio capable of receiving both companies' services.

In accordance with the terms of the agreement, we expect to work with General Motors to integrate the new standard under the terms of the distribution agreement with General Motors. The agreement with General Motors provides that if General Motors elects to install radios which are capable of receiving broadcasts from other satellite radio providers, in the absence of any regulatory requirements to do so, we may seek to renegotiate the distribution agreement. If the FCC requires the installation of inter operable radios, we will renegotiate the distribution agreement on mutually acceptable terms. "
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Old 01-08-2007, 03:52 AM   #8
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Default a reply from someone @xm411 to this same topic*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nationwide
GM can cancel the XMSR contract with GM
This agreement is subject to renegotiation if four years after the commencement of commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter General Motors does not achieve and maintain specified installation levels, starting with 1.24 million units after four years and thereafter increasing by the lesser of 600,000 units per year and amounts proportionate to our share of the satellite digital radio market. There can be no assurance as to the outcome of any such renegotiations. General Motors' exclusivity obligations will discontinue if, four years after we commenced commercial operations and at two-year intervals thereafter, our mobile aftermarket share falls below 40% if there are two satellite radio providers in the United States, or below 33% if there are three satellite radio providers in the United States.

http://sec.edgar-online.com/2002/04/.../Section10.asp

This information came from the SEC (Security Exchange Commission).

Yep, it's true. But a lot has changed since that deal with GM was signed back in the 1990's. It's not necessarily automatic or that simple.

First of all, XM has already prepaid all of the Guaranteed payments to GM for the entire term of the contract... hundreds of millions of dollars. These prepayments guarantee that GM will install XM receivers in their vehicles, on an increasing scale.

Secondly, you have to ask yourself, "why would GM want to renegotiate?" They already have an absolute sweetheart deal with XM. They've already received "guaranteed payments", they get a two-part "subscriber bounty payment" -- consisting of a payment for every receiver installed in a GM vehicle and a second payment if the car owner takes up the XM service AFTER the promo period; but only if the owner takes up the service. And finally, there is the "revenue share payment" to GM -- which is believed to top out at 50% of the monthly subscription. With terms like these, does anyone really believe that GM could renegotiate a better deal? GM will make billions off of their deal with XM the way it is. They just don't have the incentive to renegotiate, IMHO.

Thirdly, GM gets a good amount of bandwidth from XM... that they use for data services (NavTraffic and more). GM is also demonstrating a new audio service channel next week at CES -- which I am assuming is using the GM bandwidth that they have.

Finally, GM still holds over 9 million shares of XM and has a seat on the BOD. By GM potentially working with another DARS provider would likely raise serious conflicts of interests.

Adding all this up, is it worth all of the above to renegotiate? What could GM possibly get? It's arguable that XM could lower their payments to GM, given the current climate of other OEM deals where the costs are extemely lower. Could GM argue the ability to install Sirius? Probably could, but what does GM lose then? IMHO, here's what would happen...

They'd likely lose their seat on the BOD.

They'd still be forced to install LARGE amounts of XM receivers annually (that also increase annually) -- based on the prepaid guaranteed payments.

XM would then be AUTOMATICALLY allowed to renegotiate the payment/revenue share structure portion of the contract with GM -- unless Sirius is willing to match XM's payment cost structure.

It is also possible that GM could lose the bandwidth that they get from XM -- unless Sirius is willing to match and give GM 320kbps of bandwith too.


And then there is the complication of designing in Sirius into the GM electronic systems... remember, XM and GM have been "married" for over 7 years. They've spent millions and millions of dollars in R&D coming up with the current setup. Changing the manufacturing end will take quite awhile when it comes to OEM's.


Now with all this said... here's a mindblower for you... I hope to God that GM wants to renegotiate with XM to allow Sirius. Hear that? Why? Because that GM contract is the worst contract that XM has. It is the anchor around their necks. It is the obstacle that has been killing their cashflow. Being able to renegotiate lower payments, lower revenue shares and all that is stuff is an extreme plus, IMHO.

Remember, back in 1999 when this contract was written, satellite radio was not even heard of. There weren't even satellites in the sky yet. XM gave GM the bank, in an effort that they essentially launch their service. Well the service is launched -- and GM is reaping big rewards for it. Changing it now could be the best thing to happen to XM. The cost savings to XM would give them instant FCF, and possibily put them quite close to profitability.

So I say, please GM -- renegotiate with XM...
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:40 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soxnationonline
Yep, it's true. But a lot has changed since that deal with GM was signed back in the 1990's. It's not necessarily automatic or that simple.

First of all, XM has already prepaid all of the Guaranteed payments to GM for the entire term of the contract... hundreds of millions of dollars. These prepayments guarantee that GM will install XM receivers in their vehicles, on an increasing scale.

Secondly, you have to ask yourself, "why would GM want to renegotiate?" They already have an absolute sweetheart deal with XM. They've already received "guaranteed payments", they get a two-part "subscriber bounty payment" -- consisting of a payment for every receiver installed in a GM vehicle and a second payment if the car owner takes up the XM service AFTER the promo period; but only if the owner takes up the service. And finally, there is the "revenue share payment" to GM -- which is believed to top out at 50% of the monthly subscription. With terms like these, does anyone really believe that GM could renegotiate a better deal? GM will make billions off of their deal with XM the way it is. They just don't have the incentive to renegotiate, IMHO.

Thirdly, GM gets a good amount of bandwidth from XM... that they use for data services (NavTraffic and more). GM is also demonstrating a new audio service channel next week at CES -- which I am assuming is using the GM bandwidth that they have.

Finally, GM still holds over 9 million shares of XM and has a seat on the BOD. By GM potentially working with another DARS provider would likely raise serious conflicts of interests.

Adding all this up, is it worth all of the above to renegotiate? What could GM possibly get? It's arguable that XM could lower their payments to GM, given the current climate of other OEM deals where the costs are extremely lower. Could GM argue the ability to install Sirius? Probably could, but what does GM lose then? IMHO, here's what would happen...

They'd likely lose their seat on the BOD.

They'd still be forced to install LARGE amounts of XM receivers annually (that also increase annually) -- based on the prepaid guaranteed payments.

XM would then be AUTOMATICALLY allowed to renegotiate the payment/revenue share structure portion of the contract with GM -- unless Sirius is willing to match XM's payment cost structure.

It is also possible that GM could lose the bandwidth that they get from XM -- unless Sirius is willing to match and give GM 320kbps of band with too.


And then there is the complication of designing in Sirius into the GM electronic systems... remember, XM and GM have been "married" for over 7 years. They've spent millions and millions of dollars in R&D coming up with the current setup. Changing the manufacturing end will take quite awhile when it comes to OEM's.


Now with all this said... here's a mind blower for you... I hope to God that GM wants to renegotiate with XM to allow Sirius. Hear that? Why? Because that GM contract is the worst contract that XM has. It is the anchor around their necks. It is the obstacle that has been killing their cash flow. Being able to renegotiate lower payments, lower revenue shares and all that is stuff is an extreme plus, IMHO.

Remember, back in 1999 when this contract was written, satellite radio was not even heard of. There weren't even satellites in the sky yet. XM gave GM the bank, in an effort that they essentially launch their service. Well the service is launched -- and GM is reaping big rewards for it. Changing it now could be the best thing to happen to XM. The cost savings to XM would give them instant FCF, and possibly put them quite close to profitability.

So I say, please GM -- renegotiate with XM...
All these things were true when XM dominated the scene, which is no longer true.

What GM has to gain is the addition of the fastest growing, most in demand, satellite programming on the planet.

Any revenue that they would lose by sharing the XM contract with Sirius, would be more than many times replaced ( and more ) with the additional subs they would enjoy with Sirius.

If GM someday loads 7.0-8.0-9.0 million units with satrad, the additional 10-20-30 % of subscribers they could pick up ( with a dual unit ) could be worth literally BILLIONS of dollars in a few years.

Offering Customers a choice ( dual radio ) is where this ENTIRE industry is going, and soon. It will be great for consumers, great for GM ( who I won't buy for lack of Sirius today ) and GREAT for Sirius.

It won't be great for XM.
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Old 01-08-2007, 08:40 AM   #10
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Very interesting post--Thank you--Is it possible to put an "estimate" total of potential OEM for Xm and Sirius----and compare to last year(example--OEM total for xm could be 4 million etc which is 1 million more then 2006.)
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Old 01-08-2007, 01:37 PM   #11
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Dont forget Nav Traffic helps them push their crap Caddilacs.

Plus everyone has forgotten the WCS Wireless deal and future expanded bandwith. Oh yeah... Stern I forgot.

I see no reason GM will go with Sirius.

Especially since they still have a stake in XM.
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Old 01-08-2007, 02:01 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave

I see no reason GM will go with Sirius.

Especially since they still have a stake in XM.


I dont either. I think it just gives whisker something to post about.
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Old 01-08-2007, 02:19 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave
Plus everyone has forgotten the WCS Wireless deal and future expanded bandwith...I see no reason GM will go with Sirius.

Especially since they still have a stake in XM.
I agree that GM is going nowhere, but didn't the WCS deal fall apart?
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Old 01-08-2007, 02:24 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by soxnationonline
I dont either. I think it just gives whisker something to post about.
---

You're right Home-Boy. Sirius has no interest or expertise in flipping OEM contracts. The language in the contract is there for no purpose. Mel couldn't care less. GM's/Wagner likes selling the # 2 brand. Nascar GM Trucks owners are passive and easily distracted.

Dream on boys.... just remember you heard it here !
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Old 01-08-2007, 02:42 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RoadRunner
I agree that GM is going nowhere, but didn't the WCS deal fall apart?
Sure did... missed that one.

Glad I sold my XM stocks in August.... glad I watched it ride to $41 first. At least I bought in early 2003 @ $3.75!

I also owned some SIRI for a few months in 2004.

Like allot of early investors there was so much potential... at least I still have Hugh flashing 4 to dream about... those were the days.
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ISSUE: Broken Button, TIP: Crutchfield Rocks naguziew SIRIUS S50 0 03-08-2006 06:57 PM
Looking 4 picture of Dolphins or Sex depending how old U R. secrecyguy The Doghouse 16 05-02-2004 09:11 PM

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