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Old 01-13-2007, 09:26 AM   #16
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If sat radio disappears I can, for free, still get sports, news, weather, music, etc.. If I couldn't get pay TV can I get ESPN? HBO? Met or Yankee games? CNN? Fox News? On and on. I live in a very populated area of NYS, my TV choices are TW, Dish and DirecTV. If Dish and DirecTV merged that leaves me with 2 choices. If XM and/or Sirius disappear my choices are Ipods, internet radio and thousands of stations, HD radio, music on DirecTV, dozens of stations on AM/FM, and from what I read soon wireless radio in cars(maybe)!!

Another point is pay TV has been around since the 60's and about 95% of American homes subscribe to it. Sat radio has been around 5 years, and when we filter out the unsold cars, freebies, duel subs, and all the other games both companies use to count subs were talking about MAYBE 1-2% of the population. If you guys think the FCC/FTC are going to give the same weight to the importance to pay radio as they did to pay TV you're overstating the importance of pay radio.

I'm not saying a merger is a slam dunk in the eyes of the government. But I give it a much better then 50/50 chance for approval.
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Old 01-13-2007, 06:48 PM   #17
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Time will tell Satradioman, time will tell.

The FCC and FTC look at intra-industry competition, not inter-industry. If you think they're gonna compare sat radio to CD players, iPods, etc., that's just not the case.

So that may affect your analysis and conclusion. But it's all speculation anyways. And time will tell what will really happen.
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Old 01-14-2007, 05:52 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomieG
Time will tell Satradioman, time will tell.

The FCC and FTC look at intra-industry competition, not inter-industry. If you think they're gonna compare sat radio to CD players, iPods, etc., that's just not the case.

So that may affect your analysis and conclusion. But it's all speculation anyways. And time will tell what will really happen.
Absolutely, only time will time. But just one more point on a merger.

If, IF XM and Sirius are in merger talks don't you think that they have an idea on what the FCC/FTC will do? Especially Mel with his connection to the radio biz. Nothing is certain, but I would think if both companies are in serious talks they have to have an idea that there's at least a 50/50 chance that the government will approve a merger. I mean if there's almost no chance why waste time with talks?

Again I'm not saying they know for sure. But Mel with his contacts, the lawyers, etc must be giving a merger a chance to succeed.
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Old 01-14-2007, 12:56 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Absolutely, only time will time. But just one more point on a merger.

If, IF XM and Sirius are in merger talks don't you think that they have an idea on what the FCC/FTC will do? Especially Mel with his connection to the radio biz. Nothing is certain, but I would think if both companies are in serious talks they have to have an idea that there's at least a 50/50 chance that the government will approve a merger. I mean if there's almost no chance why waste time with talks?

Again I'm not saying they know for sure. But Mel with his contacts, the lawyers, etc must be giving a merger a chance to succeed.
Ding! Ding! You get 50,000 shares of the newly merged stock! As Mel has said, this isn't gonna be a slam dunk for the deal to go through but, I think he somehow knows there is gonna be a damn good chance of the merger ball hitting the rim and bouncing off the backboard, and then dropping through the net for 2 points. Just depends on if the 2 companies want to take the merger ball to the hoop or not.
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Old 01-14-2007, 02:13 PM   #20
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Quote:
If, IF XM and Sirius are in merger talks don't you think that they have an idea on what the FCC/FTC will do? Especially Mel with his connection to the radio biz. Nothing is certain, but I would think if both companies are in serious talks they have to have an idea that there's at least a 50/50 chance that the government will approve a merger. I mean if there's almost no chance why waste time with talks?
Mel is playing XM's management like a grand piano.

SIRI needs the merger to have any hope, XM is far better off without it. Yet, somehow, XM's management is allowing itself to be characterized as at least "listening" to what he has to say.

Now, XM is in a bind because the shares have popped on the merger rumor, and if they shut it down now we're going to see a big selloff in XM shares.

Aside from their marketing screwups, this may prove to be the biggest mistake XM management has made to date.
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Old 01-14-2007, 02:25 PM   #21
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As soon as XM realizes how much they are losing on that Oprah deal they'll come around. The current CEO will probably resign and that will be the beginning of the end.
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Old 01-14-2007, 02:29 PM   #22
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As soon as XM realizes how much they are losing on that Oprah deal they'll come around.
Hilarious. Oprah at < $20M/year will TURN A PROFIT for XM on ad revenue in the first year.

Stern, at $700M and counting, will never, never, ever turn a profit for Sirius.

Why do you bother?
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Old 01-14-2007, 04:25 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Absolutely, only time will time. But just one more point on a merger.

If, IF XM and Sirius are in merger talks don't you think that they have an idea on what the FCC/FTC will do? Especially Mel with his connection to the radio biz. Nothing is certain, but I would think if both companies are in serious talks they have to have an idea that there's at least a 50/50 chance that the government will approve a merger. I mean if there's almost no chance why waste time with talks?

Again I'm not saying they know for sure. But Mel with his contacts, the lawyers, etc must be giving a merger a chance to succeed.

I can't say I disagree with you, but the streets are littered with folks who thought the FCC and FTC would allow to merge, acquire, etc. It will be interesting to watch this for sure. You know, Mel is a salesman. He does a good job at marketing. Perhaps his talks with XM are nothing more than hello, how are you doing, interested yet, nope, OK, bye. Then he spins that. Who knows. I bet SBS get's really active with passionate posts if something like this were to happen, though.
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Old 01-16-2007, 09:22 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spiderguard
Sorry for the noob question, but I don't quite understand what would occur to our stocks(current quote: $3.90) if Sirius and XM merged?
To answer the original question another way, sometimes you are just paid for your shares at the price the companies agree upon.

I was given a 90's internet stock. Eventually they were bought by a major phone company after they had fallen to like 10% of their previous value. The stock was at $40/share. When the company was purchased or merged into the phone company, the stock was purchased around $4/share. Around $4/share was automatically deposited into my eTrade account.
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Old 01-16-2007, 06:04 PM   #25
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I note that for as long as I can remember, Mel has projected SIRIUS to be a 3.0 billion in sales by 2010. It sure looks like he was counting on the companies being merged in making that comment.

Astoundingly estimated by many firms today peg the market at 29 million listeners in 2010. This equals 3.2 Billion bucks based on existing revenue per customer.

As a side note, in 2010 only 16-18% of all the vehicles in the USA will be factory installed.

The technology will still be in it's early days.
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Old 01-16-2007, 08:27 PM   #26
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The technology will still be in it's early days.
It is important not to get too intense about the "technology" (of satellite radio). It can be here today, gone tomorrow. (In the late 70s I worked for a microwave consulting firm involved in frequency planning for the new "long-distance" companies (MCI, etc.). In the course of maybe 3-4 years I saw that business collapse from booming to nonexistent. The same can happen with the "technology" here. The Ipod has caused a substantial devaluation of the "technology" already. And if it is "technology" you're after, XM is lightyears ahead of SIRI in that department anyway.

Everyone says "content is king". But the reality is that XM's investment in getting GM to do OEM installs is far more important than any content in existence (including Stern). That's not to say content isn't important, but it has to be better than terrestrial, and needs to be better than what Ipods have to offer -- that's the key. Ultimately, the decision as to which service a person subscribes to will be determined by which receiver is installed in the car they just bought.
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Old 01-17-2007, 09:40 AM   #27
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XM shareholders like myself were thinking the above in 2004 when the Howard deal was announced.

BTW this is rambling!!!

XM had the huge technology lead AND better OEM contracts.

Today however XM was wrong to a point...

The new crop of Sat Rad MP3 players have been a flop... the XM2Go that XM was looking forward to did not give them the edge. As Innos were pushed to bargain shelves Apple sold more than 20 Million IPods in 2006.

On the OEM front... OEM installs seem to help Sirius more than XM because the way they count subs. However OEM installs weigh down your SAC because these subs are often bought at a lower rate after the free trial is over. A friend of mine had a Chevy and after the free trial she was contacted to stay. She acted coy and negotiated $6 a month for a year. My mom got $8 a month!

Gone are the days of mass retail customers paying full retail for the service.

Where I think Sirius kicked XM in the teeth and put her down was in marketing. XM up until a few months ago was run by engineers. The first round of XM ads were great but since then they have been mediocre. XM kicked ass in sound quality, play list depth and product technology (XM2Go, NavTraffic etc). Hell here in Dallas I get my own XM Traffic Channel... on Sirius I have to split the Channel with Houston.

However what XM missed was Sirius and Mels way to wrap slick packaging and marketing. Their website changed as XM's didnt. Sirius ran lots of promotions... XM was to worried about chasing the CFBE carrot that they watched their CPGA. XM ads still appealed to music lovers and not the mainstream of America that will help push the sub base to the next level. Sirius really appealed to FM on Sat Rad and they won...

So today you have Sirius with out of control costs... which is not good for shareholders. However the end user is not always a shareholder. With all of this spending they have gained incredible brand awareness. Now Sirius is aligned with most consumers when they think of Sat Rad... in 2003 this was different.

to Sirius in controlling costs... overbidding for Stern and running promotions in the quarter before Stern switched.

to Sirius for becoming the most recognized Sat Rad company for the general public. Also for making large strides in subscriber acquisition when the market was soft!

BTW a merger will never happen!

Last edited by CorporateSlave; 01-17-2007 at 09:59 AM..
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Old 01-17-2007, 10:28 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorporateSlave
to Sirius in controlling costs... overbidding for Stern and running promotions in the quarter before Stern switched.

to Sirius for becoming the most recognized Sat Rad company for the general public. Also for making large strides in subscriber acquisition when the market was soft!

I believe your ; the Stern cost and his influence on adding subs has had a large and direct effect on your ; Sirius being the more recognized and faster growing Sat Rad Co.
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:17 PM   #29
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Quote:
Sirius being the more recognized and faster growing Sat Rad Co.
And the most financially troubled.
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Old 01-18-2007, 08:33 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crashed
And the most financially troubled.
Yep.. I mentioned that.

However both companies have been incinerating cash for the last 6+ years.

What is another 1-2 more?
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