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Old 01-17-2007, 03:22 PM   #1
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Unhappy Its all over

Now that a merger will not be allowed I see little future for this stock. Yes I have lost thousands, but thats the risk of the market.

I see no reason why this stock should go up. Our hope is lost.
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:30 PM   #2
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yep. might as well dive into a tar pit.
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:47 PM   #3
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So many thoughts ...such tired fingers.

First .... does anyone think that about 200 lawyers from both XM and Sirius hasn't poured hundreds of billing hours into this topic eons before the idea was suggested and considered by both Mel and Gary ?

My point.

The Gentleman from the FCC was merely repeating the rule of law as it's written today. There is nothing stated anywhere that suggests these rules can be superseded or revised. To that end, if someone repeats a rule 20 years old, only the uninformed dump their stock.

Second. What this does say to me is that the FCC is signaling that it probably won't authorize the holding of two band widths. My GUESS is that Sirius will be buying back a few million units and converting about 2.0 million OEM applications. While this sounds prohibitive, it's only about .5 billion to do so..... the amount of Howard's contract.

Lastly.... IF this doesn't happen ( and I'm still in the yes it will camp ) would you think that Satrad will disappear off the face of the earth ? ... Would you rather be holding SIRI or XMSR stock ? ... Is it not possible that Sirius could take the entire market WITHOUT buying or merging with XM ?

Don't get me wrong, it's not easy to lose money ( I'm down + 150K ) but these are times where money is lost by the nervous. This is why the average Joe is broke. He gets scared and runs.

Hold on.
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:52 PM   #4
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For those of us that said it would not happen should be given our props and respect for knowing what the FCC Chairman would say about it just like I would do the same if it did happen and it was successful. This is not an "I told you so" or rubbing it in, but there are some posters who are knowledgeable and know what happens outside of this and any other message board. I feel sorry for those that are losing money and face, but that's how most businesses and government agencies operate.
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:54 PM   #5
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Thumbs down I rememeber hearing that

in early 2000.

This is what concerns me about this stock. After two years its at a low and they have 6 million subscribers. Doesnt make sense that the stock is worth half as much and they have more than doubled their subscribership.

I just believe another stock will show gains before this one.
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Old 01-17-2007, 04:15 PM   #6
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I would hope Mel knew about this rule before the FCC announcement. And if he did know about it why would he talk about a possible merger? To temporarily prop up the stock. I don't think so. My guess is he thinks he can change the rule. I would like to see what he says about the FCC announcement.
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Old 01-17-2007, 04:24 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmbingham
I would hope Mel knew about this rule before the FCC announcement. And if he did know about it why would he talk about a possible merger? To temporarily prop up the stock. I don't think so. My guess is he thinks he can change the rule. I would like to see what he says about the FCC announcement.
It didn't work several years ago with the Direct TV/ Dish Network deal. It sure won't work with this.
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Old 01-17-2007, 05:08 PM   #8
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Quote:
The Gentleman from the FCC was merely repeating the rule of law as it's written today. There is nothing stated anywhere that suggests these rules can be superseded or revised. To that end, if someone repeats a rule 20 years old, only the uninformed dump their stock.
Right. That's the way it is now. FCC has been adamant in the position that there should be competition (and, in fact, that is one of its basic functions in life). And, yes, they could decide to change their regulations but should they and would they? I doubt it.

Quote:
Second. What this does say to me is that the FCC is signaling that it probably won't authorize the holding of two band widths. My GUESS is that Sirius will be buying back a few million units and converting about 2.0 million OEM applications. While this sounds prohibitive, it's only about .5 billion to do so..... the amount of Howard's contract.
No, Stern's contract (as we now know) is $700 Million as of now, and probably will be close to a billion when it is done. But you are oversimplifying. How are Ford, DCX, and BMW (who is already on the fence wrt Sirius) going to explain this to their customers?

Quote:
Lastly.... IF this doesn't happen ( and I'm still in the yes it will camp ) would you think that Satrad will disappear off the face of the earth ? ... Would you rather be holding SIRI or XMSR stock ? ... Is it not possible that Sirius could take the entire market WITHOUT buying or merging with XM ?
As I've said repeatedly, the merger talk has simply been a case of Mel trying to figure out to do with a bloated, sunk, fixed-cost structure he inherited. We now know that he is going to have to look at other alternatives (the smartest of which would be to syndicate Stern, but Stern is going to have a cow if they try to do it).

Quote:
Don't get me wrong, it's not easy to lose money ( I'm down + 150K ) but these are times where money is lost by the nervous. This is why the average Joe is broke. He gets scared and runs.
Money is also lost by buying stock in a company that has become so bloated with fixed costs that making money is years away, at best.

At this time, I am basically out of both. But I think XM's financials are going to be impressive to the Street, and plan to buy more calls right before earnings. Mel has been surprising a couple of times at having done a good job with controlling costs, but it is very difficult to expect that happened in Q4 -- cheap receivers, big-spending advertising, etc. The only saving grace may end up being the fact they missed their guidance so badly (which also means they didn't spend the money on SACs/rebates).
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Old 01-17-2007, 05:11 PM   #9
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Quote:
This is what concerns me about this stock. After two years its at a low and they have 6 million subscribers. Doesnt make sense that the stock is worth half as much and they have more than doubled their subscribership.
It really DOES make sense. They have spent MORE in trying to double the subs than the subs can reasonably be expected to bring in (a subscriber lasts 39 months; by the time you recover $231 in SACs plus a chunk of the massive Howard Stern bill, NASCAR bill, NFL bill, NBA bill, etc., you are in the hole).

This is the primary basis of my claim that XM is the better stock. XM, while not doing well at retail, clearly is adding subscribers at a REASONABLE pace while not spending wildly.

The object is not to add subscribers. It is to become profitable.
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Old 01-17-2007, 05:20 PM   #10
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Rules, even government rules, maybe ESPECIALLY government rules are made to be changed/broken/bought.

The fat lady hasn't finished singing yet...
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Old 01-17-2007, 06:42 PM   #11
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its 2 early 2 tell but it will be a tough sell 4 sirius and xm

the Wall Street Journal explores the various obstacles a merger between the lone two players in satellite-radio might face in the wake of increased analyst speculation of a deal, a warming up to the idea by XM and a sense of urgency as the '08 election cycle approaches. Both the FCC and Dept. of Justice are seen potentially blocking an attempt to merge due simply to the fact there would only be one player left in satellite radio. However, both Sirius and XM claim they compete against all types of music media.

It may be difficult to persuade the FCC considering it previously blocked a merger between EchoStar and DirecTV. Nonetheless, it seems a recent marked softening of its stance on a merger by XM, as well as stock analyst speculation of a merger could serve as a "trial balloon intended to gauge the reaction of both investors and regulators," says the WSJ adding, "Such advance work may be necessary given that any deal would face significant hurdles." An RBC Capital Markets analyst also warns although cost savings could reach 50%, that might not happen until 2010 due to usage of different technologies.
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Old 01-17-2007, 07:36 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Satradioman
Rules, even government rules, maybe ESPECIALLY government rules are made to be changed/broken/bought.

The fat lady hasn't finished singing yet...
I've worked with the FCC for 35 years now. It's very, very, very difficult to change their rules, especially when they are conditions of their issuance of licenses. In the SDARS case, that's exactly what happened. The possibility of the FCC allowing a merger is zero. Bookmark this post and make sure to quote it when that happens Seriously, some folks are starting to sound desparate about this matter. Goodness, it's only radio.
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Old 01-17-2007, 08:00 PM   #13
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Yeah, the FCC is not going to reverse course on this one overnight. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a rule change. Which leaves us with the company's own futures.

And with no profits today, in six months, or even in 12 from what I can tell, there's just no way I would jump into either company right now. Sirius and XM just have too much ground to try and cover to make it a worthwhile investment in my mind. Something tells me there will be more down before it gets back up.

Quote:
Seriously, some folks are starting to sound desparate about this matter. Goodness, it's only radio.
People just feel passionate about this, which I understand. This seems like an obvious good idea (especially on a fan site). But even the most obvious good idea will only get support for so long, and I think their is worry that time will run out.

Last edited by unoriginal; 01-17-2007 at 08:06 PM..
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Old 01-18-2007, 07:49 AM   #14
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Well let's then assume that a merger is not in the cards. ( I still think it's on ...I NEVER underestimate Mel ) .

Is XM or Sirius in the position to take the whole deal ?
Will XM thrive against Siri's programming ?
Will Siri take some OEM share ?

What do you think the landscape looks like 12-24 months out.

From SSG.... my favorite for news...

As mentioned earlier, Bear Stearns upgraded SIRI to Peer Perform from Underperform, noting that yesterday SIRI and XMSR fell significantly based on comments made by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin at the Jan 2007 Open Commission Meeting. Yet firm believes that no incremental information or potential intention was offered by the comments, and with the citing of the rule 25.118, they believe that Kevin Martin merely acknowledged what has already been widely discussed in the marketplace. Hence, firm thinks the reaction was overdone, providing a better entry point for SIRI. Firm believes that SIRI and XMSR will be driven more in the short-term by merger speculation, and thinks SIRI will trade more in-line with its peer.

Last edited by Whiskerbiscuit; 01-18-2007 at 07:57 AM..
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Old 01-18-2007, 08:29 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit
What do you think the landscape looks like 12-24 months out.
Slow but steady growth.

All of the players involved to change the licensing requirements are not fans of either company.

Without a ground swell of public support the special interest groups (read FM Lobbyist) will have their way.

Besides... I am not convinced a merger is in the best interest of either company or consumers.

According to both companies profits are soon to come. This would have made more sense 2 years ago when profitability was a moving target in constant reverse.
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