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Old 01-18-2007, 01:35 PM   #1
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Default XM hits new Alexa lows.... off 66%

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...ww.xmradio.com

This says it all.

XM is getting their hiney beat.

Web page hits off about 66% from one year ago.


----------------

Sirius off about 35%

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...www.sirius.com

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Old 01-18-2007, 01:43 PM   #2
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Comparing anything to a year ago is retarded:



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Old 01-18-2007, 02:22 PM   #3
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It is hard to extrapolate anything on the webpage hit stats.

Its kind of like a Jesus oil stain... you can see what you want when you look to it for meaning.

Two things that also need to be looked at that are strange...

1) Page hits at the begining of 2004 were almost equal. What did the landscape look like then?

2) Sirius page hits were > 30% higher in Q4 2005 although subs were flat to XM.
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Old 01-18-2007, 08:21 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badmotherfarker
Comparing anything to a year ago is retarded:



--

I'm sure you've heard of Year-over-Year comparisons for stock prices and values. If a company did less sales in 2007 vs 2006, would you pay less for it's shares ? Do you think that's retarded ? How about inflation numbers ? Economic data, your waistline measurements ?

The future (and it's trends) are based on past data and the values growth is assigned to those values. To think YOY comparisons are retarded, is retarded.

Also, please note that the scale of the about two graphs are not idential......200 to 500.

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Old 01-18-2007, 09:33 PM   #5
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Or that XM surfers are smarter than Sirius surfers and have removed the Alexa spyware from their PCs.
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Old 01-19-2007, 12:23 AM   #6
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There are too many variables here that aren't looked at. For example, the two stats that are used to determine the popularity of a website are rank and reach(average pageviews per user doesn't tell us anything about the number of people looking). The problem is that the two sites will be down year over year in both stats even assuming the same number of unique visitors in a given time period, as well as small growth.

Sirius and XM are, with limited exception like SIR+, US- and Canada-based services. Most of the US and Canada have had a good internet connection for years now; however, the rest of the world is still growing rapidly in adopting the internet. That means that (1) reach for sites like Sirius and XM will decrease unless large growth is achieved as people in other countries join up and go to sites that aren't Sirius or XM, simply because they have no reason to visit the sites. The other impact (2) is that the two sites will decrease in rank over time with steady traffic because other sites with international appeal will grow faster as the global internet usage grows. Finally, with the two different demographics of Sirius and XM, from age to income to how they use the service, we do not know how that aligns with the demographics of Alexa. If one service matches Alexa's demos better, they will rank higher, for example if Alexa's main demo is male 18-35, then Sirius will have more traffic than XM b/c that is who they target. On the flip side, if the demographic is people 25-54, then XM will have a better ratio than Sirius. There is too much obscurity to identify what the true stats are.
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Old 01-19-2007, 05:30 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenDee
There are too many variables here that aren't looked at. For example, the two stats that are used to determine the popularity of a website are rank and reach(average pageviews per user doesn't tell us anything about the number of people looking). The problem is that the two sites will be down year over year in both stats even assuming the same number of unique visitors in a given time period, as well as small growth.

Sirius and XM are, with limited exception like SIR+, US- and Canada-based services. Most of the US and Canada have had a good internet connection for years now; however, the rest of the world is still growing rapidly in adopting the internet. That means that (1) reach for sites like Sirius and XM will decrease unless large growth is achieved as people in other countries join up and go to sites that aren't Sirius or XM, simply because they have no reason to visit the sites. The other impact (2) is that the two sites will decrease in rank over time with steady traffic because other sites with international appeal will grow faster as the global internet usage grows. Finally, with the two different demographics of Sirius and XM, from age to income to how they use the service, we do not know how that aligns with the demographics of Alexa. If one service matches Alexa's demos better, they will rank higher, for example if Alexa's main demo is male 18-35, then Sirius will have more traffic than XM b/c that is who they target. On the flip side, if the demographic is people 25-54, then XM will have a better ratio than Sirius. There is too much obscurity to identify what the true stats are.
BD,

I've come to like you and respect your opinions but we differ here.

What you say is correct, but I'll be damned if the variance of the trends don't underscore what I've seen in quarterly reporting. While not perfect, I think it's the best indicator out there for satrad share.

WB
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Old 01-20-2007, 10:44 PM   #8
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Plot it against each company's net loss and let's see how it looks....
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Old 01-21-2007, 05:58 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crashed
Plot it against each company's net loss and let's see how it looks....
Doing that would be as logical as plotting it against my wife's period....Or the Iraq dead. No correlation.
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Old 01-22-2007, 12:47 PM   #10
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Doing that would be as logical as plotting it against my wife's period....Or the Iraq dead. No correlation.
Perhaps there is no correlation.

But it is important to keep in mind that those web hits are costing Sirius a fortune -- and its financial future is on the line.

Sirius, as of the end of this year, will have suffered a billion and a half more in losses than XM, and that difference will increase at least for the next two years, and likely for years into the future. All of which reduces the equity of SIRI's shareholders.

Many are confused by the fact that SIRI is currently outselling XM. But it makes perfect sense -- SIRI has literally thrown billions at trying to get its subscriber additions up, and had XM done the same, it would have been to both companies' detriments (SIRI's because they would have lost market share, and XM because it would have chiseled away at XM's financial situation, just as these massive expenditures have destroyed SIRI's future).

To think that getting more subscribers is the goal (versus achieving profitability in a cost effective matter) is naive.
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Old 01-22-2007, 10:35 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crashed
Perhaps there is no correlation.

But it is important to keep in mind that those web hits are costing Sirius a fortune -- and its financial future is on the line.

Sirius, as of the end of this year, will have suffered a billion and a half more in losses than XM, and that difference will increase at least for the next two years, and likely for years into the future. All of which reduces the equity of SIRI's shareholders.

Many are confused by the fact that SIRI is currently outselling XM. But it makes perfect sense -- SIRI has literally thrown billions at trying to get its subscriber additions up, and had XM done the same, it would have been to both companies' detriments (SIRI's because they would have lost market share, and XM because it would have chiseled away at XM's financial situation, just as these massive expenditures have destroyed SIRI's future).

To think that getting more subscribers is the goal (versus achieving profitability in a cost effective matter) is naive.
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000H My000000000000000

They BOTH are hitting lows not seen since early 2005 as of today. Really sucky web attraction. Sirius has gone from 1900 to 4000. Nasty.
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Old 01-22-2007, 11:36 PM   #12
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You got that right. Neither has much to be pleased about....
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Old 01-23-2007, 06:53 PM   #13
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Google trends shows search trends rather than page visits like Alexa, which I think is a better way to measure.

XM suffers from the fact that they arent just www.xm.com.


http://www.google.com/trends?q=xm%2C...o=all&date=all
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