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Old 01-31-2007, 10:05 AM   #1
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Default Honda announcement-Good for SIRI

You may have read that Honda extended their contract with XM, which at first blush appears to be bad news for Sirius. This isn't the case.

I don't think Sirius investors could read/study a more important piece than this: http://media.seekingalpha.com/article/25606

IMHO, the Honda relationship pushes Nissan and Toyota into Sirius's corner. Having worked in the OEM industry, and with the Asians, they only unite against the domestics collectively. When one of them " break out " with preferred technology or a differentiating value, the party ends.

Read this clip carefully noting the Author's opinion that RETAIL MARKET SHARE is a considered factor with those aforementioned manufacturers.

I suspect, and hope, that Sirius pulls T and N completely into the Sirius satrad family which would outscore XM 3.5 million to 1.5 million units.

Last edited by Whiskerbiscuit; 01-31-2007 at 10:35 AM..
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Old 01-31-2007, 10:36 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit View Post
You may have read that Honda extended their contract with XM, which at first blush appears to be bad news for Sirius. This isn't the case.

I don't think Sirius investors could read/study a more important piece than this: http://media.seekingalpha.com/article/25606

IMHO, the Honda relationship pushes Nissan and Toyota into Sirius's corner. Having worked in the OEM industry, and with the Asians, they only unite against the domestics collectively. When one of them " break out " with preferred technology or a differentiating value, the party ends.

Read this clip carefully noting the Author's opinion that RETAIL MARKET SHARE is a considered factor with those aforementioned manufacturers.

I suspect, and hope, that Sirius pulls T and N completely into the Sirius satrad family which would outscore XM 3.5 million to 1.5 million units.
--------

LMAO..... or NOT !

Just read XM cut a SWEET deal with Toyota. So much for my ruminations on this one. NICE WORK XMSR ...... you did the deal here !

This might change everything.......
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Old 01-31-2007, 11:12 AM   #3
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There is nothing new here.

I have been trying to tell you guys for 2 years now that XM, NOT Sirius, has an exclusive OEM relationship with Toyota and Nissan.

It is great to see that this time, Sirius isn't releasing a lying made up PR at the stroke of midnight to mislead the shareholders; we can attribute that to having replaced Clayton with Mel, who at the very least has some since of decency about him.

XM has won the OEM battle, hands down. With Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Nissan, you've got the best OEMs in the business. GM, they could do without (at the price).

Now, maybe, they can focus on regaining their previous retail share position, which will eventually happen, or at least come back to about 50/50.
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Old 01-31-2007, 12:42 PM   #4
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What basis is there to say that retail will go to 50/50?

When was the last quarter that XM improved its retail share?

Obviously, Sirius' retail share has a ceiling, but is there anything on the immediate horizon that will drive retail subs? Don't say good execution, because, as far as execution of controllable tasks related to retail (advertising, h/w pricing, etc.), I can't fault XM. Their campaign last quarter was excellent, at least as good as Sirius'. They were more than price-competitive with Sirius at every outlet I checked (comparable XM radios were consistently $20 cheaper than Sirius radios, even after rebates and what-not). Oprah didn't deliver on marketing the service, but that ball's in Harpo's court, not XM's.

There's no content deals that I see affecting more than 5-10% of the retail market for the foreseeable future. I doubt Rush Limbaugh is going to come to satellite (he's 5 years older than Stern, can't come over until 2009, and has greater health problems with continuing).

The most that might affect retail is OEM subs getting gifts and so forth for friends and family members, but that should have been making its effects felt by now.
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Old 01-31-2007, 02:08 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Crashed View Post
There is nothing new here.

I have been trying to tell you guys for 2 years now that XM, NOT Sirius, has an exclusive OEM relationship with Toyota and Nissan.

It is great to see that this time, Sirius isn't releasing a lying made up PR at the stroke of midnight to mislead the shareholders; we can attribute that to having replaced Clayton with Mel, who at the very least has some since of decency about him.

XM has won the OEM battle, hands down. With Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Nissan, you've got the best OEMs in the business. GM, they could do without (at the price).

Now, maybe, they can focus on regaining their previous retail share position, which will eventually happen, or at least come back to about 50/50.
You joined in 2007. Maybe they killed off your first account here.

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Old 01-31-2007, 02:14 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiskerbiscuit View Post
--------

LMAO..... or NOT !

Just read XM cut a SWEET deal with Toyota. So much for my ruminations on this one. NICE WORK XMSR ...... you did the deal here !

This might change everything.......
open mouth..insert foot...the timing of this one was great.
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Old 01-31-2007, 02:19 PM   #7
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open mouth..insert foot...the timing of this one was great.
haha.
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Old 01-31-2007, 08:17 PM   #8
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What basis is there to say that retail will go to 50/50?
None. But there is also no basis to assume, out of the blue, that Sirius' retail share will stay where it is.[/quote]

[/quote]When was the last quarter that XM improved its retail share?[/quote]

It has been a few -- but you can't just look at it like that. Sirius has been spending crazy amounts of money, and that has to come to a stop or there will be no Sirius. They're spending well more than double what XM is to get a subscriber. Now, they're having to cut content in other areas because of this massive blunder of hiring Stern. It is a house of cards and it may be beginning to collapse.

Quote:
Obviously, Sirius' retail share has a ceiling, but is there anything on the immediate horizon that will drive retail subs? Don't say good execution, because, as far as execution of controllable tasks related to retail (advertising, h/w pricing, etc.), I can't fault XM. Their campaign last quarter was excellent, at least as good as Sirius'.
Look, Sirius is running on Stern fumes at this point. For 3/4 billion, they should get a few quarters out of it. I believe people assume Sirius is "better" because they got Stern. But the reality is that SIRI's content is really starting to collapse as a result of these high-$ deals for Stern, Stewart, NFL, NASCAR, etc. So, other important programming (like The Young Turks, DJs on the 50s channel, etc.) is taking back seat to Stern, a one-hit-wonder. I understand why they're doing the cost cutting, and I don't know that I would criticize them for it, but reality is they're cutting content.

Quote:
They were more than price-competitive with Sirius at every outlet I checked comparable XM radios were consistently $20 cheaper than Sirius radios, even after rebates and what-not).
Did you happen to go to Walmart? SIRI had a receiver all thru Christmas at $28.34 -- XM had not one under $50. Maybe it is coincidence, but $28.34 is precisely what XM was selling those Roadys for in '05 (where so many churned out after the promo period). No, SIRI cost cut FAR, FAR more than XM in Q4. And the financials are going to show it.

Quote:
Oprah didn't deliver on marketing the service, but that ball's in Harpo's court, not XM's.
No, I just think XM views it appropriately -- a lot of people around here think you should add content if and only if it will bring some predetermined number of subscribers. That's not a sensible way of looking at it, although it is exactly the approach SIRI has used to date. It doesn't work that way. Stern was the most powerful force in radio. There are no more Sterns.

Quote:
There's no content deals that I see affecting more than 5-10% of the retail market for the foreseeable future. I doubt Rush Limbaugh is going to come to satellite (he's 5 years older than Stern, can't come over until 2009, and has greater health problems with continuing).
That's correct. Content is not what makes people choose SIRI over XM or vice-versa. Publicity and brand recognition is. OEM deals are. But not content. Not yet.


We've seen retail drop -- remember, Sirius missed its own estimates by 300K subs last quarter in spite of wild spending on SACs. As a result, we can expect their loss to exceed 1.2 Billion for '06. Real money. They can't keep this up. As Stern continues to be less of an influence and XM continues to improve its marketing, there is no reason to expect that SIRI's market share gains are anything other than temporary. 50/50? I don't know. Could be 60/40, 50/50, 40/60 or anywhere in between. But there is no reason to just assume it will stay where it is as SIRI runs out of money.
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Old 01-31-2007, 08:19 PM   #9
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You joined in 2007. Maybe they killed off your first account here.
Many times. In the past, the allowance of dissent has not been that great around here, although, the management deserves kudos for its recent tolerance.
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Old 01-31-2007, 09:41 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Crashed View Post
None. But there is also no basis to assume, out of the blue, that Sirius' retail share will stay where it is.
[/quote]When was the last quarter that XM improved its retail share?[/quote]

It has been a few -- but you can't just look at it like that. Sirius has been spending crazy amounts of money, and that has to come to a stop or there will be no Sirius. They're spending well more than double what XM is to get a subscriber. Now, they're having to cut content in other areas because of this massive blunder of hiring Stern. It is a house of cards and it may be beginning to collapse.

Look, Sirius is running on Stern fumes at this point. For 3/4 billion, they should get a few quarters out of it. I believe people assume Sirius is "better" because they got Stern. But the reality is that SIRI's content is really starting to collapse as a result of these high-$ deals for Stern, Stewart, NFL, NASCAR, etc. So, other important programming (like The Young Turks, DJs on the 50s channel, etc.) is taking back seat to Stern, a one-hit-wonder. I understand why they're doing the cost cutting, and I don't know that I would criticize them for it, but reality is they're cutting content.



Did you happen to go to Walmart? SIRI had a receiver all thru Christmas at $28.34 -- XM had not one under $50. Maybe it is coincidence, but $28.34 is precisely what XM was selling those Roadys for in '05 (where so many churned out after the promo period). No, SIRI cost cut FAR, FAR more than XM in Q4. And the financials are going to show it.



No, I just think XM views it appropriately -- a lot of people around here think you should add content if and only if it will bring some predetermined number of subscribers. That's not a sensible way of looking at it, although it is exactly the approach SIRI has used to date. It doesn't work that way. Stern was the most powerful force in radio. There are no more Sterns.



That's correct. Content is not what makes people choose SIRI over XM or vice-versa. Publicity and brand recognition is. OEM deals are. But not content. Not yet.


We've seen retail drop -- remember, Sirius missed its own estimates by 300K subs last quarter in spite of wild spending on SACs. As a result, we can expect their loss to exceed 1.2 Billion for '06. Real money. They can't keep this up. As Stern continues to be less of an influence and XM continues to improve its marketing, there is no reason to expect that SIRI's market share gains are anything other than temporary. 50/50? I don't know. Could be 60/40, 50/50, 40/60 or anywhere in between. But there is no reason to just assume it will stay where it is as SIRI runs out of money.[/quote]


Dude, you seriously need to do your homework. SIRI did not miss guidance by 300k. It simply LOWERED guidance and then met its estimates. Can XMSR say the same? No. They lowered guidance 3 TIMES throughout the year AND STILL MISSED!!
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Old 02-01-2007, 10:56 AM   #11
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Default Chrashed's opinion did just that

Listen-Is the OEM market important? Definetely. Does Sirius have a debt problem? Of course. But you can't come in here and dismiss content. Stern. Stewart, Nascar, NBA, etc will bring in more subscribers period. Yes there is a number of music lovers who will come for the variety, but programming is what is differientating Sirius right now.

Don't discount that at all and especially Stern. His program is not for everybody, but he has proven to be a money maker every where he has gone.
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Old 02-01-2007, 08:17 PM   #12
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Listen-Is the OEM market important? Definetely. Does Sirius have a debt problem? Of course. But you can't come in here and dismiss content. Stern. Stewart, Nascar, NBA, etc will bring in more subscribers period. Yes there is a number of music lovers who will come for the variety, but programming is what is differientating Sirius right now.

Don't discount that at all and especially Stern. His program is not for everybody, but he has proven to be a money maker every where he has gone.

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Old 02-01-2007, 08:50 PM   #13
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open mouth..insert foot...the timing of this one was great.
It wasn't some of my better speculation, but in equal fairness ( to me ) I could have deleted the post. I'm still amazed that XM did something right. Despite the fact that some say " no big deal " .." nothing new " that's simply not true. It is a big deal. Toyota is known for quality products and partners.....I've worked with them and know what Toyota means in the world.

Nothing takes away from the fact that given the choice 65% of people chose Sirius ( retail numbers ) BUT nothing also takes away the fact that Sirius can't sell units in cars they don't own.

I have been VERY BIG in the Sirius camp, and still see them gaining on XM for at least 18 months. BUT ( and it's a big but ) I'm going to switch some stock into XMSR for two reasons.

1. IF there is a merger, it now looks like a merger of equals and not the direct Sirius buys XM as I had once thought. IF it's of equals, you want to own XMSR as they will be brought to a premium for equalization.

2. Even if there isn't a merger, I'm continue to be bothered by Sirius's 1.5 BILLION shares compared to XM at 280 million. If XM will be solidly CF positive first ( without tricks like deferring payments that Sirius is doing ) XM's one dollar will make me a hell of a lot more money than Sirius's first dollar.

Don't get me wrong guys. My heart and mind is with Sirius, but my wallet can't ignore XM's value proposition.

You thoughts ?
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Old 02-01-2007, 09:10 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Crashed View Post
There is nothing new here.

I have been trying to tell you guys for 2 years now that XM, NOT Sirius, has an exclusive OEM relationship with Toyota and Nissan.

It is great to see that this time, Sirius isn't releasing a lying made up PR at the stroke of midnight to mislead the shareholders; we can attribute that to having replaced Clayton with Mel, who at the very least has some since of decency about him.

XM has won the OEM battle, hands down. With Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Nissan, you've got the best OEMs in the business. GM, they could do without (at the price).

Now, maybe, they can focus on regaining their previous retail share position, which will eventually happen, or at least come back to about 50/50.

This is a big deal. There is something "new " here......

Consider this from today ......

DETROIT - Ford’s U.S. sales dropped 19 percent in January, allowing Toyota to pass it again as the nation’s No. 2 automaker. But Ford’s numbers were so bad that it was also passed by DaimlerChrysler, knocking the troubled automaker into fourth place for the month.

Times are tough for Ford Motor Co., which attributed its decline to a long-term strategy of returning to profitability by cutting low-profit rental car sales and reducing its reliance on incentives.

Analysts predict that Toyota Motor Corp. likely will knock Ford off its traditional No. 2 spot for the full year in 2007, but Ford, which lost $12.7 billion last year, says it is focused more on returning to profitability in North America.
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Old 02-01-2007, 09:11 PM   #15
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Post Its all good for sat radio!

Hey. Can you imagine if Toyota decided NOT to do XM? What would that do for our stocks?

Think about it. One of the best motor companies in the world wants satellite radio. If there is ever a merger thats more customers for us all.

When you look at the bigger picture, the news is good.
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